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Capital flows in a transitional economy and the sterilization dilemma: The hungarian experience, 1992–97

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  • Pierre L. Siklos

Abstract

This paper evaluates Hungary's dilemma with sterilization in the context of the record of countries elsewhere that have experienced similar capital inflow episodes, e.g., Latin America and Asia. The study focuses on the short-run impact of sterilization on monetary policy. The empirical results indicate that sterilized interventions by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) did not neutralize capital inflows until possibly the middle of 1995, following a change in government and, more significantly, a change in exchange rate regimes. Indeed, it appears that monetary policy was overly restrictive and that, for a time, the NBH overcompensated for the inflows of capital.

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  • Pierre L. Siklos, 2000. "Capital flows in a transitional economy and the sterilization dilemma: The hungarian experience, 1992–97," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 373-392.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpolrf:v:3:y:2000:i:4:p:373-392
    DOI: 10.1080/13841280008523411
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew J. Filardo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2016. "Prolonged Reserves Accumulation, Credit Booms, Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 364-381, February.
    2. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Willett, Thomas D., 2010. "China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset and sterilization coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 951-972, September.
    3. Zhuo Tan & Shenggang Yang & Hong Zhu, 2008. "China's implicit demand for foreign reserves: neutralization and the rise in reserves," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 93-99.
    4. Khemraj, Tarron & Pasha, Sukrishnalall, 2011. "Monetary sterilization and dual nominal anchors: some Caribbean examples," MPRA Paper 34503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Waheed, Muhammad, 2010. "Foreign exchange intervention and sterilization: an investigation of State Bank of Pakistan’s Reaction Function," MPRA Paper 33161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alice Ouyang & Ramkishen Rajan & Tom Willett, 2008. "Managing the Monetary Consequences of Reserve Accumulation in Emerging Asia," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 171-199.
    7. Siklos, Pierre L. & Abel, Istvan, 2002. "Is Hungary ready for inflation targeting?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 309-333, December.
    8. Alice Ouyang & Ramkishen Rajan, 2011. "Reserve accumulation and monetary sterilization in Singapore and Taiwan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2015-2031.
    9. Zhuo Tan & Shenggang Yang & Hong Zhu, 2008. "China’s implicit demand for foreign reserves: neutralization and the rise in reserves," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 93-99.

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