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Capital flows in a transitional economy and the sterilization dilemma: The hungarian experience, 1992-97

  • Pierre L. Siklos

This paper evaluates Hungary's dilemma with sterilization in the context of the record of countries elsewhere that have experienced similar capital inflow episodes, e.g., Latin America and Asia. The study focuses on the short-run impact of sterilization on monetary policy. The empirical results indicate that sterilized interventions by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) did not neutralize capital inflows until possibly the middle of 1995, following a change in government and, more significantly, a change in exchange rate regimes. Indeed, it appears that monetary policy was overly restrictive and that, for a time, the NBH overcompensated for the inflows of capital.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Economic Policy Reform.

Volume (Year): 3 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 373-392

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jpolrf:v:3:y:2000:i:4:p:373-392
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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Targeting the real exchange rate," MPRA Paper 13765, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1991. "The Perils of Sterilization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 921-926, December.
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Exchange rates, inflation, and the sterilization problem: Germany, 1975-1981," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 161-189.
  4. Anonymous, 1994. "Monetary Policy Statement, December 1994," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 57, December.
  5. Jang-Yung Lee, 1996. "Implications of a Surge in Capital Inflows; Available tools and Consequences for the Conduct of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 96/53, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
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