IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0302012.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Production networks and resilience: How dense production networks shield economies in financial crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Petre Caraiani
  • Alina Mihaela Dima
  • Cristian Păun
  • Tănase Stamule
  • Madalina Vanesa Vargas

Abstract

The research delves into the underexplored area of how production network structures influence the severity of economic downturns, particularly during the last financial crisis. Utilizing the RSTAN database from the OECD, we meticulously derived critical measures from the input-output matrices for 61 economies. Our methodology entailed a panel analysis spanning from 2008 to 2010, which is a period marked by significant recessionary pressures. This analysis aimed to correlate economic performance with various production network metrics, taking into account control factors such as interest rates and the prevalence of service sectors. The findings reveal a noteworthy positive correlation between the density of production networks and economic resilience during the crisis, which remained consistent across multiple model specifications. Conversely, as anticipated, higher interest rates were linked to poorer economic performance, highlighting the critical interplay between monetary policy and economic outcomes during periods of financial instability. Given these insights, we propose a policy recommendation emphasizing the strategic enhancement of production network density as a potential buffer against economic downturns. This approach suggests that policymakers should consider the structural aspects of production networks in designing economic stability and growth strategies, thus potentially mitigating the impacts of future financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Petre Caraiani & Alina Mihaela Dima & Cristian Păun & Tănase Stamule & Madalina Vanesa Vargas, 2024. "Production networks and resilience: How dense production networks shield economies in financial crisis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(4), pages 1-14, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0302012
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0302012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0302012
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0302012&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0302012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew B. Bernard & Emmanuel Dhyne & Glenn Magerman & Kalina Manova & Andreas Moxnes, 2022. "The Origins of Firm Heterogeneity: A Production Network Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(7), pages 1765-1804.
    2. repec:bof:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201512101464 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    4. Andrew B. Bernard & Emmanuel Dhyne & Glenn Magerman & Kalina Manova & Andreas Moxnes, 2019. "The origins of firm heterogeneity: A production network approach," Working Paper Research 362, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Emmanuel Dhyne & Ayumu Ken Kikkawa & Magne Mogstad & Felix Tintelnot, 2021. "Trade and Domestic Production Networks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(2), pages 643-668.
    6. E. Nur Ozkan‐Gunay & Mehmed Ozkan, 2007. "Prediction of bank failures in emerging financial markets: an ANN approach," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(5), pages 465-480, November.
    7. Daron Acemoglu & Pablo D. Azar, 2020. "Endogenous Production Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 33-82, January.
    8. Felipe Benguria & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 509-526, December.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2016. "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 273-335.
    10. Caraiani, Petre & Dutescu, Adriana & Hoinaru, Răzvan & Stănilă, Georgiana Oana, 2020. "Production network structure and the impact of the monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the OECD," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    11. Willem Thorbecke & Biswa N. Bhattacharyay, 2012. "Role of Production Networks in Sustaining and Rebalancing Asia's Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 3896, CESifo.
    12. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Farhi, Emmanuel & Baqaee, David Rezza, 2020. "Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 14742, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Vasco M. Carvalho & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2019. "Production Networks: A Primer," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 635-663, August.
    15. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Niemira, Michael P. & Saaty, Thomas L., 2004. "An Analytic Network Process model for financial-crisis forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 573-587.
    17. Caraiani, Petre, 2019. "Oil shocks and production network structure: Evidence from the OECD," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Campello, Murillo & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2010. "The real effects of financial constraints: Evidence from a financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 470-487, September.
    19. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2016. "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 273-335.
    20. E. Nur Ozkan-Gunay & Mehmed Ozkan, 2007. "Prediction of bank failures in emerging financial markets: an ANN approach," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 8(5), pages 465-480, November.
    21. repec:zbw:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201512101464 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Goldberger, Arthur S, 1972. "Structural Equation Methods in the Social Sciences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(6), pages 979-1001, November.
    23. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_025 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Mitsuyo ANDO, 2013. "Impact of Recent Crises and Disasters on Regional Production/Distribution Networks and Trade in Japan," Working Papers DP-2013-12, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    25. Jorge Miranda Pinto, 2021. "Production Network Structure, Service Share, and Aggregate Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 146-173, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vasco M. Carvalho & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2019. "Production Networks: A Primer," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 635-663, August.
    2. Thomas J. Sargent & John Stachurski, 2022. "Economic Networks: Theory and Computation," Papers 2203.11972, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    3. Mundt, Philipp, 2021. "The formation of input–output architecture: Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 89-104.
    4. Caraiani, Petre, 2019. "Oil shocks and production network structure: Evidence from the OECD," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Dong, Feng & Wen, Yi, 2019. "Long and Plosser meet Bewley and Lucas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 70-92.
    6. Caraiani, Petre, 2022. "The impact of oil supply news shocks on corporate investments and the structure of production network," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Amiti, Mary & Duprez, Cédric & Konings, Jozef & Van Reenen, John, 2024. "FDI and superstar spillovers: Evidence from firm-to-firm transactions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    8. Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2023. "Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    9. Emmanuel Dhyne & Ayumu Ken Kikkawa & Glenn Magerman, 2022. "Imperfect Competition in Firm-to-Firm Trade," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 1933-1970.
    10. Pellet, Thomas & Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza, 2023. "Rigid production networks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 86-102.
    11. Herkenhoff, Philipp & Krautheim, Sebastian & Sauré, Philip, 2024. "A simple model of buyer–seller networks in international trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    12. Huang, Hanwei & Manova, Kalina & Perello, Oscar & Pisch, Frank, 2024. "Firm heterogeneity and imperfect competition in global production networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 126808, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2024. "Networks, Barriers, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(2), pages 505-541, March.
    14. Ghassibe, Mishel, 2021. "Monetary policy and production networks: an empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 21-39.
    15. Yoshiyuki ARATA & Daisuke MIYAKAWA, 2022. "Demand Shock Propagation Through an Input-output Network in Japan," Discussion papers 22027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    16. Everett Grant & Julieta Yung, 2019. "Upstream, Downstream & Common Firm Shocks," Globalization Institute Working Papers 360, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    17. Baruník, Jozef & Bevilacqua, Mattia & Faff, Robert, 2024. "Dynamic industry uncertainty networks and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    18. Dhyne, Emmanuel & Kikkawa, Ayumu Ken & Kong, Xianglong & Mogstad, Magne & Tintelnot, Felix, 2023. "Endogenous production networks with fixed costs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    19. Lafond, François & Astudillo-Estévez, Pablo & Bacilieri, Andrea & Borsos, András, 2023. "Firm-level production networks: what do we (really) know?," INET Oxford Working Papers 2023-08, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    20. Barauskaite, Kristina & Nguyen, Anh D.M., 2021. "Global intersectoral production network and aggregate fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0302012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.