IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Housing Investment

Author Info

  • William Miles

    ()

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Housing represents a form of “irreversible” investment. Theoretically, increased uncertainty should lower housing investment. Empirically, finding a proxy for uncertainty has proven problematic. Some recent papers have investigated the effect of uncertainty on real estate investment, with varying proxies for uncertainty and mixed results. This paper employs a technique used in modern macroeconomic studies, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in-Mean model, which has been shown to correspond as closely as any known measure to theoretical concepts of uncertainty. Results indicate that uncertainty indeed has a negative impact on housing starts. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-007-9087-x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (February)
    Pages: 173-182

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:38:y:2009:i:2:p:173-182
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

    Keywords: Housing; Investment; Irreversibility;

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin B., 2006. "On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 478-500, August.
    2. DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January.
    3. Richard K. Green, 1997. "Follow the Leader: How Changes in Residential and Non-residential Investment Predict Changes in GDP," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 253-270.
    4. Mayer, Christopher J. & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2000. "Residential Construction: Using the Urban Growth Model to Estimate Housing Supply," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 85-109, July.
    5. Cukierman, Alex, 1980. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 462-75, June.
    6. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
    7. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    8. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    9. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
    10. Laarni Bulan & Christopher J. Mayer & C. Tsuriel Somerville, 2006. "Irreversible Investment, Real Options, and Competition: Evidence from Real Estate Development," NBER Working Papers 12486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Norman Miller & Liang Peng, 2006. "Exploring Metropolitan Housing Price Volatility," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 5-18, August.
    12. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
    13. Shields, KalvInder & Kevin B Grier & Olan T Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2003. "The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 187, Royal Economic Society.
    14. Nick Bloom, 2006. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Firm Level Estimation and a 9/11 Simulation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0718, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
    16. Coulson, N Edward, 1999. "Housing Inventory and Completion," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 89-105, January.
    17. Rena Sivitanidou & Petros Sivitanides, 2000. "Does the Theory of Irreversible Investments Help Explain Movements in Office-Commercial Construction?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(4), pages 623-661.
    18. N. Edward Coulson & Christian Richard, 1996. "The Dynamic Impact of Unseasonable Weather on Construction Activity," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 179-194.
    19. C. Tsuriel Somerville, 2001. "Permits, Starts, and Completions: Structural Relationships Versus Real Options," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 161-190.
    20. A. Steven Holland & Steven H. Ott & Timothy J. Riddiough, 2000. "The Role of Uncertainty in Investment: An Examination of Competing Investment Models Using Commercial Real Estate Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 33-64.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    as in new window


    Cited by:

    1. Gottlieb, Paul D. & O’Donnell, Anthony & Rudel, Thomas & O’Neill, Karen & McDermott, Melanie, 2012. "Determinants of local housing growth in a multi-jurisdictional region, along with a test for nonmarket zoning," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 296-309.
    2. John Clapp & Katsiaryna Bardos & Tingyu Zhou, 2014. "Expansions and Contractions of Major US Shopping Centers," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 16-56, January.
    3. Bruce Morley & Dennis Thomas, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of UK House Price Risk Variation by Property Type," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 45-56, May.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Access and download statistics

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:38:y:2009:i:2:p:173-182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

    or (Rebekah McClure)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.