IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v10y2022i15p2653-d874403.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Effects of Energy Price: New Insight from Korea?

Author

Listed:
  • Yugang He

    (College of Liberal Arts, Sejong University, Seoul 05006, Korea)

  • Moongi Lee

    (College of Liberal Arts, Sejong University, Seoul 05006, Korea)

Abstract

Under the double pressure of the Ukrainian–Russian war and the COVID-19 pandemic, the global energy crisis has also engulfed the Korean economy. Based on this context, this article examines the macroeconomic implications of energy prices, using Korea as an example. According to an empirical study using the impulse response function, the results show that an energy price shock causes a decline in production, labor supply, capital stock, and energy consumption, as well as an increase in consumption, wages, the goods price level, inflation, and the deposit interest rate. Meanwhile, variance decomposition findings indicate that the energy price shock has a greater impact on the Korean macroeconomy than other shocks. In addition, the findings of three types of robustness tests validate the reliability and accuracy of the conclusions reached in this work. In conclusion, the information presented in this study may aid Korean policymakers in implementing appropriate countermeasures against macroeconomic volatility caused by the energy price shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Yugang He & Moongi Lee, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Energy Price: New Insight from Korea?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-14, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:15:p:2653-:d:874403
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/15/2653/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/15/2653/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2018. "How Does Stock Market Volatility React To Oil Price Shocks?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 666-682, April.
    2. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, December.
    3. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    4. Zhang, Yanfang & Shi, Xunpeng & Qian, Xiangyan & Chen, Sai & Nie, Rui, 2021. "Macroeconomic effect of energy transition to carbon neutrality: Evidence from China's coal capacity cut policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    5. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
    6. Jihoon Lee & Hong Chong Cho, 2021. "Impact of Structural Oil Price Shock Factors on the Gasoline Market and Macroeconomy in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, February.
    7. Amiri, Hossein & Sayadi, Mohammad & Mamipour, Siab, 2021. "Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Outcomes; Fresh Evidences from a scenario-based NK-DSGE analysis for oil-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Matthew Greenwood‐Nimmo & Viet Hoang Nguyen & Yongcheol Shin, 2012. "Probabilistic forecasting of output growth, inflation and the balance of trade in a GVAR framework," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 554-573, June.
    9. Makena Coffman, 2010. "Oil price shocks in an island economy: an analysis of the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 44(3), pages 599-620, June.
    10. Nakhli, Seyyed Reza & Rafat, Monireh & Dastjerdi, Rasul Bakhshi & Rafei, Meysam, 2021. "Oil sanctions and their transmission channels in the Iranian economy: A DSGE model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Cunado, Juncal & Jo, Soojin & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2015. "Macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks in Asian economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 867-879.
    12. Kim, Ju-Hee & Yoo, Seung-Hoon, 2021. "Comparison of the economic effects of nuclear power and renewable energy deployment in South Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    13. Masih, Rumi & Peters, Sanjay & De Mello, Lurion, 2011. "Oil price volatility and stock price fluctuations in an emerging market: Evidence from South Korea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 975-986, September.
    14. Yugang He & Yinhui Wang, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic: Fresh Evidence from Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-14, April.
    15. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
    16. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    17. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
    18. Jin, Taeyoung & Kim, Jinsoo, 2019. "A new approach for assessing the macroeconomic growth energy rebound effect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 192-200.
    19. Finn, Mary G., 1995. "Variance properties of Solow's productivity residual and their cyclical implications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1249-1281.
    20. Hail Park & Yongcheol Shin, 2018. "The Effects of Oil Price on the Korean Economy: A Global VAR Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(5), pages 981-991, April.
    21. Park, Chuhwan & Chung, Mo & Lee, Sukgyu, 2011. "The effects of oil price on regional economies with different production structures: A case study from Korea using a structural VAR model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8185-8195.
    22. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
    23. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April.
    24. Yugang He, 2022. "Home Production: Does It Matter for the Korean Macroeconomy during the COVID-19 Pandemic?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-12, June.
    25. Glasure, Yong U., 2002. "Energy and national income in Korea: further evidence on the role of omitted variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 355-365, July.
    26. Hoffmaister, Alexander W. & Roldos, Jorge E., 2001. "The Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Brazil and Korea," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 213-239, April.
    27. Baek, Jungho, 2020. "An asymmetric approach to the oil prices-trade balance nexus: New evidence from bilateral trade between Korea and her 14 trading partners," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 199-209.
    28. Amedeo Argentiero, Tarek Atalla, Simona Bigerna, Silvia Micheli, and Paolo Polinori, 2017. "Comparing Renewable Energy Policies in EU-15, U.S. and China: A Bayesian DSGE Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(KAPSARC S).
    29. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 295-330, March.
    30. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1985. "Oil Price Shocks, Unemployment, Investment and the Current Account: An Intertemporal Disequilibrium Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(4), pages 627-645.
    31. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2021. "Asymmetric oil price and Asian economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    32. Ebru Caglayan Akay & Sinem Guler Kangalli Uyar, 2016. "Determining the Functional Form of Relationships between Oil Prices and Macroeconomic Variables: The Case of Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 880-891.
    33. John Landon-Lane, 2002. "Evaluating Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models using Likelihood," Departmental Working Papers 200211, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    34. Fardous Alom & Bert D. Ward & Baiding Hu, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of world oil and food price shocks in Asia and Pacific economies: application of SVAR models," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(3), pages 327-372, September.
    35. Lee, Chul-Yong & Huh, Sung-Yoon, 2017. "Forecasting the diffusion of renewable electricity considering the impact of policy and oil prices: The case of South Korea," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 29-39.
    36. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2005. "Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 353, Central Bank of Chile.
    37. Kyungsoo Cha, 2015. "Understanding the Effects of Different Types of Oil Shocks on Korean Manufacturing Industry (in Korean)," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, vol. 21(4), pages 59-96, December.
    38. Oh, Wankeun & Lee, Kihoon, 2004. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Korea: testing the causality relation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 973-981, December.
    39. Myung-Soo Yie & Byoung Hark Yoo, 2016. "The Role Of Foreign Debt And Financial Frictions In A Small Open Economy Dsge Model," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(05), pages 1-23, December.
    40. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yao Li & Yugang He & Renhong Wu, 2023. "Traversing the Macroeconomic Terrain: An Exploration of South Korea’s Economic Responsiveness to Cross-Border E-Commerce Production Technology Alterations in the Global Arena," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Ahmad Al Humssi & Maria Petrovskaya & Milana Abueva, 2022. "Modelling the Impact of World Oil Prices and the Mining and Quarrying Sector on the United Arab Emirates’ GDP," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    2. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2008. "Oil shocks and endogenous markups: results from an estimated euro area DSGE model," Working Paper Series 860, European Central Bank.
    3. Forni, L. & Gerali, A. & Notarpietro, A. & Pisani, M., 2015. "Euro area, oil and global shocks: An empirical model-based analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 295-314.
    4. Pascal Jacquinot & Mika Kuismanen & Ricardo Mestre & Martin Spitzer, 2009. "An Assessment of the Inflationary Impact of Oil Shocks in the Euro Area," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 49-84.
    5. Črt Lenarčič, 2018. "Oil Shocks and the Excise Duty Tax in a DSGE Model Setting," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 21(2), pages 49-69, November.
    6. Baas, Timo & Belke, Ansgar, 2017. "Oil price shocks, monetary policy and current account imbalances within a currency union," GLO Discussion Paper Series 160, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    8. Roman E. Romero, 2008. "Monetary Policy in Oil-Producing Economies," Working Papers 1053, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    9. Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of Oil Shocks in a Small Open Economy New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for South Africa," Working Papers 201652, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Oladunni, Sunday, 2020. "Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Dynamics in an Oil-Exporting Emerging Economy: A New Keynesian DSGE Approach," MPRA Paper 104551, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Jun 2020.
    11. Roman E. Romero, 2008. "Monetary Policy in Oil-Producing Economies," Working Papers 1053, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    12. Marcelo Sánchez, 2011. "Oil shocks and endogenous markups: results from an estimated euro area DSGE model," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 247-273, September.
    13. John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2012. "Surprising Comparative Properties of Monetary Models: Results from a New Model Database," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(3), pages 800-816, August.
    14. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2005. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 350, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Yunqing Wang & Qigui Zhu, 2015. "Energy price shocks, monetary policy and China's economic fluctuations," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 29(1), pages 126-141, May.
    16. Mandelman, Federico S., 2013. "Monetary and exchange rate policy under remittance fluctuations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 128-147.
    17. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
    18. Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo, 2009. "Accounting for Oil Price Variation and Weakening Impact of the Oil Crisis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    19. Senbeta, Sisay, 2011. "How applicable are the new keynesian DSGE models to a typical low-income economy?," MPRA Paper 30931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Soma Patra, 2022. "Oil price shocks, firm entry and exit in a heterogeneous firm model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 349-378, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:15:p:2653-:d:874403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.