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Oil Price Shocks, Unemployment, Investment and the Current Account: An Intertemporal Disequilibrium Analysis

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  • van Wijnbergen, Sweder

Abstract

We use an intertemporal model incorporating short-run labour and goods markets disequilibrium to analyse the consequences of oil price shocks for unemployment, investment and the current account. A dominant transfer element leads to Keynesian unemployment now and deterioration tomorrow in the final-goods terms of trade. A dominant supply-shock element leads to classical unemployment now and an improvement tomorrow in the final-goods terms of trade. Investment falls if there is classical unemployment but increases in the K-region under Putty-Clay technology. Current account deficits are larger in the K-region than in the C-region. If world interest rates fall, investment accelerates in the K-region but not in the C-region. We use these results to explain observed differences in response to oil shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1985. "Oil Price Shocks, Unemployment, Investment and the Current Account: An Intertemporal Disequilibrium Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 65, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:65
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 1169-1185.
    2. David Lipton & James M. Poterba & Jeffrey Sachs & Lawrence H. Summers, 1983. "Multiple Shooting in Rational Expectations Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jeffrey Sachs & Charles Wyplosz, 1984. "Real Exchange Rate Effects of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 1255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dogrul, H. Günsel & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Relationship between oil prices, interest rate, and unemployment: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1523-1528, November.
    2. Mireille Assouline & Anne Epaulard & Patrick Fève & Marc Vielle, 1990. "Ralentissement de l'activité mondiale et crise du Golfe : quels ajustements pour l'économie française ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 96(5), pages 33-44.
    3. Atems, Bebonchu & Kapper, Devin & Lam, Eddery, 2015. "Do exchange rates respond asymmetrically to shocks in the crude oil market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 227-238.
    4. Marois, William, 1986. "Théorie du déséquilibre et politique économique en économie ouverte," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 62(2), pages 257-288, juin.
    5. LAOURARI, Imène & GASMI, Farid, 2016. "The impact of real oil revenues fluctuations on economic growth in Algeria: evidence from 1960-2015 data," MPRA Paper 77590, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. van der Ploeg, F., 1987. "Rationing in open economy and dynamic macroeconomics : A survey," Research Memorandum fd411b51-f487-4dde-a0e9-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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