IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rut/rutres/200211.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Evaluating Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models using Likelihood

Author

Listed:
  • John Landon-Lane

    () (Rutgers University)

Abstract

This paper develops a method that uses a likelihood approach to directly compare two or more non-nested dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. It is shown how DSGE models can be compared across the whole sample and how this measure can be decomposed across individual observations thus allowing models to be compared across any sub-sample of the data. The method is applied to the problem of determining whether the technology shock process in a standard Real Business Cycle model should consist of permanent or temporary, albeit persistent, shocks. Overall, a permanent shock model has a better prediction performance than the temporary shock model. However, the model with the temporary shock performs much better for the part of the sample that includes the most of the 1980's and the 1990's.

Suggested Citation

  • John Landon-Lane, 2002. "Evaluating Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models using Likelihood," Departmental Working Papers 200211, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:200211
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sas.rutgers.edu/virtual/snde/wp/2002-11.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Zweimüller, Josef, 1994. "Do Immigrants Displace Native Workers? The Austrian Experience," CEPR Discussion Papers 991, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. David Card, 1990. "The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 43(2), pages 245-257, January.
    3. De New, John P & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 1994. "Native Wage Impacts of Foreign Labor: A Random Effects Panel Analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, pages 177-192.
    4. Klaus F. Zimmermann, 1995. "Tackling the European Migration Problems," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 45-62, Spring.
    5. Dustmann Christian & Preston Ian P, 2007. "Racial and Economic Factors in Attitudes to Immigration," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-41, November.
    6. Card, David, 2001. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 22-64, January.
    7. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2001. "First- and Second-Generation Migrants in Germany - What Do We Know and What Do People Think," IZA Discussion Papers 286, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    8. Myeong-Su Yun, 2000. "Decomposition Analysis for a Binary Choice Model," Departmental Working Papers 200001, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    9. Alan B. Krueger & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 1997. "A Statistical Analysis of Crime against Foreigners in Unified Germany," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 32(1), pages 182-209.
    10. Dustmann, Christian & Preston, Ian, 2001. "Attitudes to Ethic Minorities, Ethnic Context and Location Decisions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(470), pages 353-373, April.
    11. Winkelmann, Rainer & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 1992. "Ageing, Migration and Labour Mobility," CEPR Discussion Papers 706, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Bauer, Thomas K. & Lofstrom, Magnus & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2000. "Immigration Policy, Assimilation of Immigrants and Natives' Sentiments towards Immigrants: Evidence from 12 OECD-Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 187, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    13. Andrew M. Yuengert, 1995. "Testing Hypotheses of Immigrant Self-Employment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(1), pages 194-204.
    14. Muhleisen, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1994. "A panel analysis of job changes and unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 793-801, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov chain Monte Carlo; Model Evaluation; Real Business Cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:200211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/derutus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.