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Impacts and evolution of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru using regime-switching VAR models

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Listed:
  • Rodríguez, Gabriel
  • Abanto-Valle, Carlos A.
  • Cáceres Quispe, Moisés
  • Alvarado Silva, Paola

Abstract

This paper applies regime-switching VAR models with time-varying parameters and variances to analyze the impact and evolution of monetary policy shocks and their contribution to GDP growth, inflation, and the interest rate in Peru over 1994Q3–2019Q4. The approach offers an alternative and complementary perspective to Pérez Rojo and Rodrıguez (2024). The main findings are: (i) the best-fitting models incorporate regime-switching volatility; (ii) two distinct regimes emerge, coinciding with the adoption of inflation targeting (IT); (iii) the volatility of GDP growth and inflation began to decline in the early 1990s, while interest rate volatility fell sharply after IT implementation; and (iv) prior to IT, monetary policy shocks explained 15%, 30%, and 90% of the long-term forecast error variance decomposition of inflation, GDP growth, and the interest rate, respectively, but their contribution became negligible thereafter. Overall, the results are robust across alternative specifications, underscoring the stabilizing role of IT in Peru’s monetary policy framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodríguez, Gabriel & Abanto-Valle, Carlos A. & Cáceres Quispe, Moisés & Alvarado Silva, Paola, 2026. "Impacts and evolution of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru using regime-switching VAR models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 26-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:79:y:2026:i:c:p:26-48
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.04.002
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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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