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Dangerous density: Urban density and the criminalization of China

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  • Ma, Ning
  • Chen, Lu
  • Zeng, Zihan

Abstract

We utilized publicly available data from criminal judgments in China and a range of remotely sensed data to examine the impact of urban density on the crime risk of urban residents. Exploiting population features to instrument for density, we found a statistically significant crime-density elasticity around 0.09–0.18. The findings of this study indicate that population density has a greater impact on economic crime than other factors. This effect is particularly pronounced in medium-sized cities. The increase in the density of new businesses brings more revenue to criminals, while the improvement of the road network reduces the risk of being caught. In the context of high population density, the overstretched police force makes it easier for criminals to enter high-density areas to commit crimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Ning & Chen, Lu & Zeng, Zihan, 2025. "Dangerous density: Urban density and the criminalization of China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:99:y:2025:i:c:s1059056025001881
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104025
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law

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