IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Agglomeration under forward-looking expectations: Potentials and global stability

  • Oyama, Daisuke

This paper considers a class of migration dynamics with forward-looking agents in a multi-country solvable variant of the core-periphery model of Krugman [Krugman, P., 1991. Increasing returns and economic geography. Journal of Political Economy 99, 483-499]. We find that, under a symmetric externality assumption, our static model admits a potential function, which allows us to identify a stationary state that is uniquely absorbing and globally accessible under the perfect foresight dynamics whenever the degree of friction in relocation decisions is sufficiently small. In particular, when trade barriers are low enough, full agglomeration in the country with the highest barrier is the unique stable state for small frictions. New aspects in trade and tax policy that arise due to forward-looking behavior are discussed.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Volume (Year): 39 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Pages: 696-713

in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:39:y:2009:i:6:p:696-713
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Behrens, Kristian & Thisse, Jacques-Francois, 2007. "Regional economics: A new economic geography perspective," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 457-465, July.
  2. Sandholm, William H., 2009. "Large population potential games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1710-1725, July.
  3. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1990. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," Discussion Papers 878, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  4. Fernando Vega Redondo, 1993. "Shaping Long-Run Expectations In Problems Of Coordination," Working Papers. Serie AD 1993-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  5. Sandholm, William H., 2007. "Pigouvian pricing and stochastic evolutionary implementation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 367-382, January.
  6. Jianjun Miao, 2005. "Optimal Capital Structure and Industry Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2621-2659, December.
  7. Daisuke Oyama & Satoru Takahashi & Josef Hofbauer, 2003. "Monotone Methods for Equilibrium Selection under Perfect Foresight Dynamics," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000420, UCLA Department of Economics.
  8. Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1994. "Trade Effects of Regional Aid," CEPR Discussion Papers 910, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Blume Lawrence E., 1993. "The Statistical Mechanics of Strategic Interaction," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 387-424, July.
  10. Mai, Chao-Cheng & Peng, Shin-Kun & Tabuchi, Takatoshi, 2008. "Economic geography with tariff competition," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 478-486, September.
  11. Matsui, Akihiko, 1992. "Best response dynamics and socially stable strategies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 343-362, August.
  12. Gerhard SORGER, 1998. "Perfect Foresight and Equilibrium Selection in Symmetric Potential Games," Vienna Economics Papers 9802, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
  13. Mäler, K-G. & Xepapadeas, A. & de Zeeuw, A.J., 2003. "The economics of shallow lakes," Other publications TiSEM 368f83ad-bc2f-4ad4-b603-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  14. Akihiko Matsui & Kiminori Matsuyama, 1990. "An Approach to Equilibrium Selection," Discussion Papers 970, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  15. Philippe Jehiel & Moritz Meyer-ter-Vehn & Benny Moldovanu, 2008. "Ex-post implementation and preference aggregation via potentials," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 469-490, December.
  16. Kristian Behrens & Andrea R. Lamorgese & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano & Takatoshi Tabuchi, 2007. "Changes in transport and non transport costs: local vs. global impacts in a spatial network," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 628, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  17. Sandholm, William H, 2002. "Evolutionary Implementation and Congestion Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 667-89, July.
  18. Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2005. "The structure of simple 'New Economic Geography' models (or, On identical twins)," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 201-234, April.
  19. Tabuchi, Takatoshi & Thisse, Jacques-François & Zeng, Dao-Zhi, 2002. "On the Number and Size of Cities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3386, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Karl H. Schlag, . "Why Imitate, and if so, How? A Bounded Rational Approach to Multi- Armed Bandits," ELSE working papers 028, ESRC Centre on Economics Learning and Social Evolution.
  21. Fan-chin Kung, 2004. "Bifurcations in regional migration dynamics," Urban/Regional 0409008, EconWPA, revised 12 Sep 2004.
  22. Sandholm, William H., 2001. "Potential Games with Continuous Player Sets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 81-108, March.
  23. Ui, Takashi, 2001. "Robust Equilibria of Potential Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1373-80, September.
  24. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
  25. Hopkins, E., 1995. "Learning, Matching and Aggregation," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 95a20, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  26. Ottaviano, Gianmarco, 1996. "Monopolistic Competition, Trade, and Endogenous Spatial Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 1327, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Diamond, Peter & Fudenberg, Drew, 1989. "Rational Expectations Business Cycles in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 606-19, June.
  28. Mussa, Michael, 1978. "Dynamic Adjustment in the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 775-91, October.
  29. Fukao, Kyoji & Benabou, Roland, 1993. "History versus Expectations: A Comment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(2), pages 535-42, May.
  30. Hofbauer, Josef & Sandholm, William H., 2009. "Stable games and their dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1665-1693.e, July.
  31. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Randall Wright, 1989. "A contribution to the pure theory of money," Staff Report 123, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  32. Angelo Antoci & Antonio Gay & Massimiliano Landi & Pier Luigi Sacco, 2007. "Global Analysis of an Expectations Augmented Evolutionary Dynamics," Working Papers 25-2007, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  33. Rainald Borck & Michael Pflüger, 2004. "Agglomeration and Tax Competition," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 408, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  34. Oyama, Daisuke, 2006. "History versus Expectations in Economic Geography Reconsidered," MPRA Paper 9287, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "A Simple Model of Sectoral Adjustment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 375-88, April.
  36. K. Schlag, 2010. "Why Imitate, and if so, How? Exploring a Model of Social Evolution," Levine's Working Paper Archive 454, David K. Levine.
  37. J. Swinkels, 2010. "Adjustment Dynamics and Rational Play in Games," Levine's Working Paper Archive 456, David K. Levine.
  38. Pfluger, Michael, 2004. "A simple, analytically solvable, Chamberlinian agglomeration model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 565-573, September.
  39. Kaneda, Mitsuhiro, 2003. "Policy designs in a dynamic model of infant industry protection," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 91-115, October.
  40. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 651-67, May.
  42. Monderer, Dov & Shapley, Lloyd S., 1996. "Potential Games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 124-143, May.
  43. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  44. Oyama, Daisuke & Tercieux, Olivier, 2009. "Iterated potential and robustness of equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1726-1769, July.
  45. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June.
  46. Slade, Margaret E, 1994. "What Does an Oligopoly Maximize?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 45-61, March.
  47. Gilboa, Itzhak & Matsui, Akihiko, 1991. "Social Stability and Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 859-67, May.
  48. Spulber,Daniel F., 2011. "Global Competitive Strategy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521367981.
  49. Takatoshi Tabuchi & Jacques-François Thisse & Dao-Zhi Zeng, 2005. "On the number and size of cities*," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 423-448, August.
  50. Baldwin, Richard E., 2001. "Core-periphery model with forward-looking expectations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 21-49, February.
  51. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "The market size, entrepreneurship, and the big push," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 347-364, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:39:y:2009:i:6:p:696-713. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.