IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/regeco/v39y2009i6p696-713.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Agglomeration under forward-looking expectations: Potentials and global stability

Author

Listed:
  • Oyama, Daisuke

Abstract

This paper considers a class of migration dynamics with forward-looking agents in a multi-country solvable variant of the core-periphery model of Krugman [Krugman, P., 1991. Increasing returns and economic geography. Journal of Political Economy 99, 483-499]. We find that, under a symmetric externality assumption, our static model admits a potential function, which allows us to identify a stationary state that is uniquely absorbing and globally accessible under the perfect foresight dynamics whenever the degree of friction in relocation decisions is sufficiently small. In particular, when trade barriers are low enough, full agglomeration in the country with the highest barrier is the unique stable state for small frictions. New aspects in trade and tax policy that arise due to forward-looking behavior are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Oyama, Daisuke, 2009. "Agglomeration under forward-looking expectations: Potentials and global stability," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 696-713, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:39:y:2009:i:6:p:696-713
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166-0462(09)00055-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kyoji Fukao & Roland Benabou, 1993. "History Versus Expectations: A Comment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(2), pages 535-542.
    2. Diamond, Peter & Fudenberg, Drew, 1989. "Rational Expectations Business Cycles in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 606-619, June.
    3. Oyama, Daisuke & Tercieux, Olivier, 2009. "Iterated potential and robustness of equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1726-1769, July.
    4. Behrens, Kristian & Thisse, Jacques-Francois, 2007. "Regional economics: A new economic geography perspective," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 457-465, July.
    5. Oyama, Daisuke & Takahashi, Satoru & Hofbauer, Josef, 2008. "Monotone methods for equilibrium selection under perfect foresight dynamics," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 3(2), June.
    6. Berliant, Marcus & Kung, Fan-chin, 2009. "Bifurcations in regional migration dynamics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 714-720, November.
    7. Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 1997. "Shaping long-run expectations in problems of coordination," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 783-806, December.
    8. Mussa, Michael, 1978. "Dynamic Adjustment in the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 775-791, October.
    9. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 617-650.
    10. Matsui Akihiko & Matsuyama Kiminori, 1995. "An Approach to Equilibrium Selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 415-434, April.
    11. Hopkins, Ed, 1999. "Learning, Matching, and Aggregation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 79-110, January.
    12. Karl-Göran Mäler & Anastasios Xepapadeas & Aart de Zeeuw, 2003. "The Economics of Shallow Lakes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 26(4), pages 603-624, December.
    13. Baldwin, Richard E., 2001. "Core-periphery model with forward-looking expectations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 21-49, February.
    14. Mai, Chao-Cheng & Peng, Shin-Kun & Tabuchi, Takatoshi, 2008. "Economic geography with tariff competition," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 478-486, September.
    15. William H. Sandholm, 2002. "Evolutionary Implementation and Congestion Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 667-689.
    16. Spulber,Daniel F., 2011. "Global Competitive Strategy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521367981, December.
    17. Blume Lawrence E., 1993. "The Statistical Mechanics of Strategic Interaction," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 387-424, July.
    18. Vasco Leite & Sofia Castro & João Correia-da-Silva, 2009. "The core periphery model with asymmetric inter-regional and intra-regional trade costs," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 8(1), pages 37-44, April.
    19. Sandholm, William H., 2009. "Large population potential games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1710-1725, July.
    20. Borck, Rainald & Pfluger, Michael, 2006. "Agglomeration and tax competition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 647-668, April.
    21. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Wright, Randall, 1991. "A contribution to the pure theory of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 215-235, April.
    22. Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P., 2001. "Monopolistic competition, trade, and endogenous spatial fluctuations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 51-77, February.
    23. Antoci, Angelo & Gay, Antonio & Landi, Massimiliano & Sacco, Pier Luigi, 2008. "Global analysis of an expectations augmented evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 3877-3894, December.
    24. Kaneda, Mitsuhiro, 2003. "Policy designs in a dynamic model of infant industry protection," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 91-115, October.
    25. Slade, Margaret E, 1994. "What Does an Oligopoly Maximize?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 45-61, March.
    26. Sandholm, William H., 2007. "Pigouvian pricing and stochastic evolutionary implementation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 367-382, January.
    27. Oyama, Daisuke, 2009. "History versus expectations in economic geography reconsidered," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 394-408, February.
    28. Paul Krugman, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 651-667.
    29. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    30. Sandholm, William H., 2001. "Potential Games with Continuous Player Sets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 81-108, March.
    31. Hofbauer, Josef & Sorger, Gerhard, 1999. "Perfect Foresight and Equilibrium Selection in Symmetric Potential Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 1-23, March.
    32. Oyama, Daisuke, 2002. "p-Dominance and Equilibrium Selection under Perfect Foresight Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 288-310, December.
    33. Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1994. "Trade Effects of Regional Aid," CEPR Discussion Papers 910, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    34. Jianjun Miao, 2005. "Optimal Capital Structure and Industry Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2621-2659, December.
    35. Swinkels Jeroen M., 1993. "Adjustment Dynamics and Rational Play in Games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 455-484, July.
    36. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    37. Gilboa, Itzhak & Matsui, Akihiko, 1991. "Social Stability and Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 859-867, May.
    38. Ui, Takashi, 2001. "Robust Equilibria of Potential Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1373-1380, September.
    39. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    40. Schlag, Karl H., 1998. "Why Imitate, and If So, How?, : A Boundedly Rational Approach to Multi-armed Bandits," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 130-156, January.
    41. Pfluger, Michael, 2004. "A simple, analytically solvable, Chamberlinian agglomeration model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 565-573, September.
    42. Philippe Jehiel & Moritz Meyer-ter-Vehn & Benny Moldovanu, 2008. "Ex-post implementation and preference aggregation via potentials," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 37(3), pages 469-490, December.
    43. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    44. Behrens, Kristian & Lamorgese, Andrea R. & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Tabuchi, Takatoshi, 2007. "Changes in transport and non-transport costs: Local vs global impacts in a spatial network," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 625-648, November.
    45. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "The market size, entrepreneurship, and the big push," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 347-364, December.
    46. Tabuchi, Takatoshi & Thisse, Jacques-François & Zeng, Dao-Zhi, 2002. "On the Number and Size of Cities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3386, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    47. Takatoshi Tabuchi & Jacques-François Thisse & Dao-Zhi Zeng, 2005. "On the number and size of cities*," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 423-448, August.
    48. Hofbauer, Josef & Sandholm, William H., 2009. "Stable games and their dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1665-1693.4, July.
    49. Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2005. "The structure of simple 'New Economic Geography' models (or, On identical twins)," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 201-234, April.
    50. Matsui, Akihiko, 1992. "Best response dynamics and socially stable strategies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 343-362, August.
    51. Monderer, Dov & Shapley, Lloyd S., 1996. "Potential Games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 124-143, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ikeda, Kiyohiro & Akamatsu, Takashi & Kono, Tatsuhito, 2012. "Spatial period-doubling agglomeration of a core–periphery model with a system of cities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 754-778.
    2. Anna Agliari & Pasquale Commendatore & Ilaria Foroni & Ingrid Kubin, 2014. "Expectations and industry location: a discrete time dynamical analysis," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(1), pages 3-26, April.
    3. Oyama, Daisuke & Tercieux, Olivier, 2009. "Iterated potential and robustness of equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1726-1769, July.
    4. Fujishima, Shota, 2013. "Evolutionary implementation of optimal city size distributions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 404-410.
    5. Marcus Berliant & Tomoya Mori, 2017. "Beyond urban form: How Masahisa Fujita shapes us," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 13(1), pages 5-28, March.
    6. Akamatsu, Takashi & Takayama, Yuki, 2009. "A Simplified Approach to Analyzing Multi-regional Core-Periphery Models," MPRA Paper 21739, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Oct 2009.
    7. Kato, Hayato, 2015. "The importance of government commitment in attracting firms: A dynamic analysis of tax competition in an agglomeration economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 57-78.
    8. Oyama, Daisuke, 2009. "History versus expectations in economic geography reconsidered," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 394-408, February.
    9. Akamatsu, Takashi & Takayama, Yuki & Ikeda, Kiyohiro, 2012. "Spatial discounting, Fourier, and racetrack economy: A recipe for the analysis of spatial agglomeration models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 1729-1759.
    10. Mossay, Pascal, 2013. "A theory of rational spatial agglomerations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 385-394.
    11. Akamatsu, Takashi & Fujishima, Shota & Takayama, Yuki, 2014. "On Stable Equilibria in Discrete-Space Social Interaction Models," MPRA Paper 55938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Takashi Akamatsu & Tomoya Mori & Yuki Takayama, 2015. "Agglomerations in a multi-region economy: Poly-centric versus mono-centric patterns," KIER Working Papers 929, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    13. Akamatsu, Takashi & Mori, Tomoya & Osawa, Minoru & Takayama, Yuki, 2017. "Spatial scale of agglomeration and dispersion: Theoretical foundations and empirical implications," MPRA Paper 80689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. repec:spr:joecth:v:66:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s00199-017-1065-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Daisuke Oyama & Satoru Takahashi & Josef Hofbauer, 2011. "Perfect foresight dynamics in binary supermodular games," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 7(3), pages 251-267, September.
    16. José M. Gaspar & Sofia B. S. D. Castro & João Correia-da-Silva, 2018. "Agglomeration patterns in a multi-regional economy without income effects," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(4), pages 863-899, December.
    17. repec:spr:anresc:v:61:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00168-018-0866-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. José M. Gaspar, 2018. "A prospective review on New Economic Geography," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 61(2), pages 237-272, September.
    19. Akamatsu, Takashi & Fujishima, Shota & Takayama, Yuki, 2017. "Discrete-space agglomeration model with social interactions: Multiplicity, stability, and continuous limit of equilibria," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 22-37.
    20. Liliana Garrido-da-Silva & Sofia B. S. D. Castro & Paulo B. Vasconcelos, 2015. "Discrete Dynamics for the Core-periphery Model," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 36-51, March.
    21. Osawa, Minoru & Akamatsu, Takashi, 2019. "Emergence of Urban Landscapes: Equilibrium Selection in a Model of Internal Structure of the Cities," MPRA Paper 92395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. repec:bla:manchs:v:85:y:2017:i:6:p:744-764 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Yasushi Asako & Tatsushi Okuda, 2017. "Guiding the Economy Toward the Target Inflation Rate: An Evolutionary Game Theory Approach," IMES Discussion Paper Series 17-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic geography Agglomeration Perfect foresight dynamics History versus expectations Stability Potential game Equilibrium selection;

    JEL classification:

    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:39:y:2009:i:6:p:696-713. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/regec .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.