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Agglomeration under forward-looking expectations: Potentials and global stability

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  • Oyama, Daisuke

Abstract

This paper considers a class of migration dynamics with forward-looking agents in a multi-country solvable variant of the core-periphery model of Krugman [Krugman, P., 1991. Increasing returns and economic geography. Journal of Political Economy 99, 483-499]. We find that, under a symmetric externality assumption, our static model admits a potential function, which allows us to identify a stationary state that is uniquely absorbing and globally accessible under the perfect foresight dynamics whenever the degree of friction in relocation decisions is sufficiently small. In particular, when trade barriers are low enough, full agglomeration in the country with the highest barrier is the unique stable state for small frictions. New aspects in trade and tax policy that arise due to forward-looking behavior are discussed.

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  • Oyama, Daisuke, 2009. "Agglomeration under forward-looking expectations: Potentials and global stability," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 696-713, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:39:y:2009:i:6:p:696-713
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    Cited by:

    1. Ikeda, Kiyohiro & Akamatsu, Takashi & Kono, Tatsuhito, 2012. "Spatial period-doubling agglomeration of a core–periphery model with a system of cities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 754-778.
    2. Fujishima, Shota, 2013. "Evolutionary implementation of optimal city size distributions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 404-410.
    3. Akamatsu, Takashi & Takayama, Yuki, 2009. "A Simplified Approach to Analyzing Multi-regional Core-Periphery Models," MPRA Paper 21739, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Oct 2009.
    4. Oyama, Daisuke & Tercieux, Olivier, 2009. "Iterated potential and robustness of equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1726-1769, July.
    5. Oyama, Daisuke, 2009. "History versus expectations in economic geography reconsidered," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 394-408, February.
    6. Mossay, Pascal, 2013. "A theory of rational spatial agglomerations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 385-394.
    7. Takashi Akamatsu & Tomoya Mori & Minoru Osawa & Yuki Takayama, 2019. "Endogenous agglomeration in a many-region world," Papers 1912.05113, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    8. Akamatsu, Takashi & Fujishima, Shota & Takayama, Yuki, 2017. "Discrete-space agglomeration model with social interactions: Multiplicity, stability, and continuous limit of equilibria," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 22-37.
    9. Osawa, Minoru & Akamatsu, Takashi, 2019. "Emergence of Urban Landscapes: Equilibrium Selection in a Model of Internal Structure of the Cities," MPRA Paper 92395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Marcus Berliant & Tomoya Mori, 2017. "Beyond urban form: How Masahisa Fujita shapes us," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 13(1), pages 5-28, March.
    11. Jun Oshiro, 2017. "Solitary City: Time, Space and Urban Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 85(6), pages 744-764, December.
    12. Anna Agliari & Pasquale Commendatore & Ilaria Foroni & Ingrid Kubin, 2014. "Expectations and industry location: a discrete time dynamical analysis," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(1), pages 3-26, April.
    13. Osawa, Minoru & Akamatsu, Takashi, 2020. "Equilibrium refinement for a model of non-monocentric internal structures of cities: A potential game approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    14. Kato, Hayato, 2015. "The importance of government commitment in attracting firms: A dynamic analysis of tax competition in an agglomeration economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 57-78.
    15. Akamatsu, Takashi & Takayama, Yuki & Ikeda, Kiyohiro, 2012. "Spatial discounting, Fourier, and racetrack economy: A recipe for the analysis of spatial agglomeration models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 1729-1759.
    16. Akamatsu, Takashi & Fujishima, Shota & Takayama, Yuki, 2014. "On Stable Equilibria in Discrete-Space Social Interaction Models," MPRA Paper 55938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Takashi Akamatsu & Tomoya Mori & Yuki Takayama, 2015. "Agglomerations in a multi-region economy: Poly-centric versus mono-centric patterns," KIER Working Papers 929, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    18. Akamatsu, Takashi & Mori, Tomoya & Osawa, Minoru & Takayama, Yuki, 2017. "Spatial scale of agglomeration and dispersion: Theoretical foundations and empirical implications," MPRA Paper 80689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. José M. Gaspar & Sofia B. S. D. Castro & João Correia-da-Silva, 2018. "Agglomeration patterns in a multi-regional economy without income effects," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(4), pages 863-899, December.
    20. Daisuke Oyama & Satoru Takahashi & Josef Hofbauer, 2011. "Perfect foresight dynamics in binary supermodular games," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 7(3), pages 251-267, September.
    21. Aizawa, Hiroki & Ikeda, Kiyohiro & Osawa, Minoru & José M, Gasper, 2019. "Break and sustain bifurcations of S_N-invariant equidistant economy," MPRA Paper 97654, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. José M. Gaspar, 2018. "A prospective review on New Economic Geography," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 61(2), pages 237-272, September.
    23. Liliana Garrido-da-Silva & Sofia B. S. D. Castro & Paulo B. Vasconcelos, 2015. "Discrete Dynamics for the Core-periphery Model," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 36-51, March.
    24. Yasushi Asako & Tatsushi Okuda, 2017. "Guiding the Economy Toward the Target Inflation Rate: An Evolutionary Game Theory Approach," IMES Discussion Paper Series 17-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic geography Agglomeration Perfect foresight dynamics History versus expectations Stability Potential game Equilibrium selection;

    JEL classification:

    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling

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