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Agglomeration under forward-looking expectations: Potentials and global stability

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  • Oyama, Daisuke

Abstract

This paper considers a class of migration dynamics with forward-looking agents in a multi-country solvable variant of the core-periphery model of Krugman [Krugman, P., 1991. Increasing returns and economic geography. Journal of Political Economy 99, 483-499]. We find that, under a symmetric externality assumption, our static model admits a potential function, which allows us to identify a stationary state that is uniquely absorbing and globally accessible under the perfect foresight dynamics whenever the degree of friction in relocation decisions is sufficiently small. In particular, when trade barriers are low enough, full agglomeration in the country with the highest barrier is the unique stable state for small frictions. New aspects in trade and tax policy that arise due to forward-looking behavior are discussed.

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  • Oyama, Daisuke, 2009. "Agglomeration under forward-looking expectations: Potentials and global stability," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 696-713, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:39:y:2009:i:6:p:696-713
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    Cited by:

    1. Ikeda, Kiyohiro & Akamatsu, Takashi & Kono, Tatsuhito, 2012. "Spatial period-doubling agglomeration of a core–periphery model with a system of cities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 754-778.
    2. Anna Agliari & Pasquale Commendatore & Ilaria Foroni & Ingrid Kubin, 2014. "Expectations and industry location: a discrete time dynamical analysis," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(1), pages 3-26, April.
    3. Oyama, Daisuke & Tercieux, Olivier, 2009. "Iterated potential and robustness of equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1726-1769, July.
    4. Fujishima, Shota, 2013. "Evolutionary implementation of optimal city size distributions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 404-410.
    5. Marcus Berliant & Tomoya Mori, 2017. "Beyond urban form: How Masahisa Fujita shapes us," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 13(1), pages 5-28, March.
    6. Akamatsu, Takashi & Takayama, Yuki, 2009. "A Simplified Approach to Analyzing Multi-regional Core-Periphery Models," MPRA Paper 21739, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Oct 2009.
    7. Kato, Hayato, 2015. "The importance of government commitment in attracting firms: A dynamic analysis of tax competition in an agglomeration economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 57-78.
    8. Oyama, Daisuke, 2009. "History versus expectations in economic geography reconsidered," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 394-408, February.
    9. Akamatsu, Takashi & Takayama, Yuki & Ikeda, Kiyohiro, 2012. "Spatial discounting, Fourier, and racetrack economy: A recipe for the analysis of spatial agglomeration models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 1729-1759.
    10. Mossay, Pascal, 2013. "A theory of rational spatial agglomerations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 385-394.
    11. Akamatsu, Takashi & Fujishima, Shota & Takayama, Yuki, 2014. "On Stable Equilibria in Discrete-Space Social Interaction Models," MPRA Paper 55938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Takashi Akamatsu & Tomoya Mori & Yuki Takayama, 2015. "Agglomerations in a multi-region economy: Poly-centric versus mono-centric patterns," KIER Working Papers 929, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    13. Akamatsu, Takashi & Mori, Tomoya & Osawa, Minoru & Takayama, Yuki, 2017. "Spatial scale of agglomeration and dispersion: Theoretical foundations and empirical implications," MPRA Paper 80689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Daisuke Oyama & Satoru Takahashi & Josef Hofbauer, 2011. "Perfect foresight dynamics in binary supermodular games," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 7(3), pages 251-267, September.
    15. José M. Gaspar, 2018. "A prospective review on New Economic Geography," FEP Working Papers 605, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    16. Akamatsu, Takashi & Fujishima, Shota & Takayama, Yuki, 2017. "Discrete-space agglomeration model with social interactions: Multiplicity, stability, and continuous limit of equilibria," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 22-37.
    17. repec:bla:manchs:v:85:y:2017:i:6:p:744-764 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Yasushi Asako & Tatsushi Okuda, 2017. "Guiding the Economy Toward the Target Inflation Rate: An Evolutionary Game Theory Approach," IMES Discussion Paper Series 17-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic geography Agglomeration Perfect foresight dynamics History versus expectations Stability Potential game Equilibrium selection;

    JEL classification:

    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling

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