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Fiscal consolidations in developing countries with a Latin America focus: The role of inequality, informality and corruption

Author

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  • Jalles, João Tovar
  • Pessino, Carola

Abstract

Widening income disparities, higher corruption and larger informality in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDE) including Latin America, all with pressing and mounting fiscal problems, have rekindled interest in the empirical analysis of the key factors determining the occurrence of fiscal consolidations. Using discrete choice models, this paper examines the drivers of fiscal consolidation episodes in a sample of 148 EMDE between 1980 and 2019 with a focus on Latin America. Inequality does not seem to drive consolidations in Latin America, while more informality (corruption) increases (decreases) the probability of their occurrence. In turn, when examining the drivers of successful consolidations, larger income inequality (informality) seems to act as a boost (hinderance) for successful consolidations. Results are robust to several sensitivity and robustness tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Jalles, João Tovar & Pessino, Carola, 2025. "Fiscal consolidations in developing countries with a Latin America focus: The role of inequality, informality and corruption," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:84:y:2025:i:c:s0164070425000126
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103675
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal adjustments; Filtering; Panel data; Binary choice models; Local projection; Nonlinearities; Corruption; Shadow economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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