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What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market

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  • Díaz, Antonio
  • Groba, Jonatan
  • Serrano, Pedro

Abstract

This article studies the economic factors behind corporate default risk premia in Europe during the period 2006–2010. We employ information embedded in Credit Default Swap (CDS) contracts to quantify expected excess returns from the underlying bonds in market-wide default circumstances. We disentangle the compensation to investors for unexpected changes in the creditworthiness of the bond issuer from their remuneration for the risk that the bond's price will drop in the event of default. Our results show that the risk premia associated with systematic factors influencing default arrivals represent approximately 40% of total CDS spread (on median). These premia also exhibit a strong source of commonality; a single principal component explains approximately 88% of their joint variability. This factor significantly covaries with aggregate illiquidity and sovereign risk variables. Empirical evidence suggests a public-to-private risk transfer between sovereign credit spread and corporate risk premia. Finally, the compensation in the event of default is approximately 14 basis points of the total CDS spread, and a significant amount of jump-at-default risk may not be diversifiable.

Suggested Citation

  • Díaz, Antonio & Groba, Jonatan & Serrano, Pedro, 2013. "What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 529-563.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:37:y:2013:i:c:p:529-563
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.07.003
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    7. Cumhur ÞAHÝN & Hüseyin ALTAY, 2016. "Examination of the Relationship between Turkey’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) Points and Unemployment," Eurasian Business & Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 52-67, January.
    8. Hertrich, Markus, 2015. "Does Credit Risk Impact Liquidity Risk? Evidence from Credit Default Swap Markets," MPRA Paper 67837, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Gatfaoui, Hayette, 2017. "Equity market information and credit risk signaling: A quantile cointegrating regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 48-59.
    10. Hübel, Benjamin, 2022. "Do markets value ESG risks in sovereign credit curves?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 134-148.
    11. Sara Cecchetti, 2019. "A Quantitative Analysis of Risk Premia in the Corporate Bond Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-33, December.
    12. Sara Cecchetti, 2020. "An analysis of sovereign credit risk premia in the euro area: are they explained by local or global factors?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1271, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Ka Kei Chan & Ming‐Tsung Lin & Qinye Lu, 2024. "Corporate credit default swap systematic factors," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(7), pages 1224-1256, July.
    14. Lafuente, Juan Ángel & Petit, Nuria & Serrano, Pedro, 2019. "Pricing factors in multiple-term structures from interbank rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 138-159.
    15. Corvino, Raffaele & Fusai, Gianluca, 2022. "Default risk premium and asset prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    16. Jungmu Kim, 2019. "The Effect of Systematic Default Risk on Credit Risk Premiums," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-17, October.
    17. Juan Ángel Lafuente & Nuria Petit & Jesús Ruiz & Pedro Serrano, 2020. "Dissecting interbank risk using basis swap spreads," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 729-757, March.
    18. Ms. Luisa Zanforlin & Nobuyuki Kanazawa, 2014. "Market Signals and the Cost of Credit Risk Protection: An Analysis of CDS Settlement Auctions," IMF Working Papers 2014/239, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Petit, Nuria & Lafuente Luengo, Juan Ángel, 2017. "Dissecting interbank risk," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 24553, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    20. Sara Cecchetti, 2017. "A quantitative analysis of risk premia in the corporate bond market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1141, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit Default Swap; Distress risk premium; Expected default frequency; Jump-at-default risk premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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