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Dissecting interbank risk using basis swap spreads

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  • Juan Ángel Lafuente
  • Nuria Petit
  • Jesús Ruiz
  • Pedro Serrano

Abstract

This paper analyses interbank risk using the information content of basis swap (BS) spreads, floating‐to‐floating interest rate swaps whose payments are associated with euro deposit rates for alternative tenors. To identify the impact of shocks affecting interbank risk, we propose an empirical model that decomposes BS quotes into their expected and unexpected components. These unobservable constituents of BS spreads are estimated by solving a signal extraction problem using a particle filter. We find that expected components covariate with aggregate liquidity and risk aversion while systemic risk arises as the main driver behind unexpected fluctuations. Our empirical findings suggest that macroprudential analysis emerges as a key device to ease asset pricing in a new multi‐curve scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Ángel Lafuente & Nuria Petit & Jesús Ruiz & Pedro Serrano, 2020. "Dissecting interbank risk using basis swap spreads," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 729-757, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:43:y:2020:i:3:p:729-757
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.12878
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhang, Xiaoming & Wei, Chunyan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Tian, Yiming, 2023. "Systemic risk of Chinese financial institutions and asset price bubbles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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