IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/wbrepe/24553.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dissecting interbank risk

Author

Listed:
  • Petit, Nuria
  • Lafuente Luengo, Juan Ángel

Abstract

This paper analyses interbank risk using the information content of basis swap (BS) spreads, floating-to-floating interest rate swaps whose payments are associated with euro deposit rates for alternative tenors. We propose an empirical model to decompose BS quotes into expected and unexpected components. To estimate both unobservable constituents of BS spreads, we solve a signal extraction problem using a particle filter. Our empirical findings show that unexpected changes of BS spreads are linked to systemic risk. Shocks to aggregate liquidity are also important to explain regime shifts. Sovereign risk and risk aversion are relevant factors explaining expected fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Petit, Nuria & Lafuente Luengo, Juan Ángel, 2017. "Dissecting interbank risk," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 24553, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wbrepe:24553
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/rest/api/core/bitstreams/718ed1d2-49f8-4e5b-9d23-a5f681c7fbb7/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Groba, Jonatan & Lafuente, Juan A. & Serrano, Pedro, 2013. "The impact of distressed economies on the EU sovereign market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2520-2532.
    2. Andolfatto, David & Hendry, Scott & Moran, Kevin, 2008. "Are inflation expectations rational?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 406-422, March.
    3. Craig Burnside & Bing Han & David Hirshleifer & Tracy Yue Wang, 2011. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(2), pages 523-558.
    4. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Richard Portes, 2017. "Regime-Dependent Sovereign Risk Pricing During the Euro Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 363-385.
    5. Díaz, Antonio & Groba, Jonatan & Serrano, Pedro, 2013. "What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 529-563.
    6. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    7. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    8. Tapking, Jens & Eisenschmidt, Jens, 2009. "Liquidity risk premia in unsecured interbank money markets," Working Paper Series 1025, European Central Bank.
    9. McAndrews, James & Sarkar, Asani & Wang, Zhenyu, 2017. "The effect of the term auction facility on the London interbank offered rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 135-152.
    10. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2014. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 663-713.
    11. Filipović, Damir & Trolle, Anders B., 2013. "The term structure of interbank risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 707-733.
    12. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    13. López-Espinosa, Germán & Moreno, Antonio & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura, 2015. "Systemic risk and asymmetric responses in the financial industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 471-485.
    14. Sarlin, Peter & Ramsay, Bruce A., 2015. "Ending over-lending: assessing systemic risk with debt to cash flow," Working Paper Series 1769, European Central Bank.
    15. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    16. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Price Pressure in the Government Bond Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 585-590, May.
    17. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign CDS Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
    18. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Grace Xing Hu & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang, 2013. "Noise as Information for Illiquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2341-2382, December.
    20. Francis A. Longstaff & Arvind Rajan, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Pricing of Collateralized Debt Obligations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 529-563, April.
    21. John H. Cochrane, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 241-265.
    22. François-Louis Michaud & Christian Upper, 2008. "What drives interbank rates? Evidence from the Libor panel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    23. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juan Ángel Lafuente & Nuria Petit & Jesús Ruiz & Pedro Serrano, 2020. "Dissecting interbank risk using basis swap spreads," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 729-757, March.
    2. Lafuente, Juan Ángel & Petit, Nuria & Serrano, Pedro, 2018. "Forecasting multiple-term structures from interbank rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 40-56.
    3. Lafuente, Juan Ángel & Petit, Nuria & Serrano, Pedro, 2019. "Pricing factors in multiple-term structures from interbank rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 138-159.
    4. Filipović, Damir & Trolle, Anders B., 2013. "The term structure of interbank risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 707-733.
    5. Lafuente, Juan Angel & Serrano, Pedro, 2015. "On the compensation for illiquidity in sovereign credit markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 83-100.
    6. Dubecq, Simon & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2016. "Credit and liquidity in interbank rates: A quadratic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 29-46.
    7. Díaz, Antonio & Groba, Jonatan & Serrano, Pedro, 2013. "What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 529-563.
    8. Shi, Yukun & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Xu, Yaofei & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Market co-movement between credit default swap curves and option volatility surfaces," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Jian Luo & Xiaoxia Ye & May Hu, 2016. "Counter-Credit-Risk Yield Spreads: A Puzzle in China's Corporate Bond Market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 203-241, June.
    10. Rubia, Antonio & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia & Serrano, Pedro, 2016. "Market frictions and the pricing of sovereign credit default swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 223-252.
    11. Thomas B. King & Kurt F. Lewis, 2020. "Credit Risk, Liquidity, and Lies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 219-267, October.
    12. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht & Min Wei, 2020. "Flights to Safety," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 689-746.
    13. Antonio Trujillo-Ponce & Reyes Samaniego-Medina & Clara Cardone-Riportella, 2014. "Examining what best explains corporate credit risk: accounting-based versus market-based models," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 253-276, April.
    14. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2016. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 126-140.
    15. Groba, Jonatan & Lafuente, Juan A. & Serrano, Pedro, 2013. "The impact of distressed economies on the EU sovereign market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2520-2532.
    16. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    17. Krista Schwarz, 2019. "Mind the Gap: Disentangling Credit and Liquidity in Risk Spreads," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 23(3), pages 557-597.
    18. Nikolaos Karouzakis, 2021. "The role of time‐varying risk premia in international interbank markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5720-5745, October.
    19. Arakelyan, Armen & Serrano, Pedro, 2016. "Liquidity in Credit Default Swap Markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 139-157.
    20. Aneta Hryckiewicz & Piotr Mielus & Karolina Skorulska & Malgorzata Snarska, 2018. "Does a bank levy increase frictions on the interbank market?," KAE Working Papers 2018-033, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interbank risk;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:wbrepe:24553. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Poveda (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.business.uc3m.es/es/index .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.