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Public investment quality and sovereign risk

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  • Adarov, Amat
  • Panizza, Ugo

Abstract

This paper introduces a new index measuring the quality of public investment covering 120 economies over the period 2000–2021. It shows that scaling up public investment reduces sove-reign risk in countries with high-quality public investment but increases sovereign risk when public investment quality is low. We find that this relationship is especially pronounced in sub-investment grade countries and that the results are not driven by the possible correlation between public investment quality and overall institutional quality. We also show that scaling up public investment when its quality is high does not undermine debt sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Adarov, Amat & Panizza, Ugo, 2026. "Public investment quality and sovereign risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:161:y:2026:i:c:s0261560625002384
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103503
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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