Bond futures, inflation-indexed bonds, and inflation risk premium
We propose a new approach to measuring long-run inflation risk, the inflation risk premium, and inflation expectations for the UK over the period 1985–2012. By adding long-term bond futures to the information set of inflation-indexed and nominal bonds, inflation risk is measured as an incremental time-varying covariance obtained from a trivariate GARCH model with dynamic conditional correlations (DCC). The time-varying inflation risk premium and inflation expectations are extracted from the breakeven yield using the risk premium obtained from the previous step. We find that the risk premium has been decreasing over the sample period, with an average value of 87 basis points. The estimated long-run inflation expectations suggest that credibility has been improving over the period of inflation targeting policy, and are in line with the role of inflation targeting policy in anchoring expectations.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 28 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Augusto Marc Rocha Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004.
"Disagreement about Inflation Expectations,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm391, Yale School of Management.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 9796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2011, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo & Wolfers, Justin, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Research Papers 1807, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Reschreiter, Andreas, 2004. "Conditional funding costs of inflation-indexed and conventional government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1299-1318, June.
- Martin D. D. Evans, 1998. "Real Rates, Expected Inflation, and Inflation Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 187-218, 02.
- Hali J. Edison, 1996.
"The reaction of exchange rates and interest rates to news releases,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
570, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Edison, Hali J, 1997. "The Reaction of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to News Releases," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 87-100, April.
- Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2001. "Minute-by-minute dynamics of the Australian bond futures market in response to new macroeconomic information," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 117-137, April.
- Barr, David & Campbell, John, 1997.
"Inflation, Real Interest Rates, and the Bond Market: A Study of UK Nominal and Index-Linked Government Bond Prices,"
3163261, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- David Barr & John Campbell, . "Inflation, real interest rates and the bond market: a study of UK nominal and index-linked Government bond prices," CERF Discussion Paper Series 95-09, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- David G. Barr & John Y. Campbell, 1996. "Inflation, Real Interest Rates, and the Bond Market: A Study of UK Nominal and Index-Linked Government Bond Prices," NBER Working Papers 5821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McQueen, Grant & Roley, V Vance, 1993. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 683-707.
- John Y. Campbell, 2000.
"Asset Pricing at the Millennium,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, 08.
- Campbell, John, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Scholarly Articles 3294737, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1897, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," NBER Working Papers 7589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Levin, Eric J & Copeland, Laurence S, 1993.
"Reading the Message from the U.K. Indexed Bond Market: Real Interest Rates, Expected Inflation and the Risk Premium,"
The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies,
University of Manchester, vol. 61(0), pages 13-34, Suppl..
- Eric J Levin & Laurence S Copeland, 1992. "Reading the Message from the UK Indexed Bond Market: Real Interest Rates, Expected Inflation and the Risk Premium," Working Papers Series 92/8, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
- Yoram Landskroner & Alon Raviv, 2008.
"The valuation of inflation‐indexed and FX convertible bonds,"
Journal of Futures Markets,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 634-655, 07.
- Yoram Landskroner & Alon Raviv, 2004. "The Valuation of Inflation-Indexed and FX Convertible Bonds," Finance 0401005, EconWPA.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
- Alvaro Angeriz & Philip Arestis, 2007. "Monetary policy in the UK," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(6), pages 863-884, November.
- Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
- repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2007:i:jul10 is not listed on IDEAS
- Peter Hördahl, 2008. "The inflation risk premium in the term structure of interest rates," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
- Pamela Labadie, 2004. "Aggregate risk sharing and equivalent financial mechanisms in an endowment economy of incomplete participation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 24(4), pages 789-809, November.
- Frank F. Gong & Eli M. Remolona, 1996. "Inflation risk in the U.S. yield curve: the usefulness of indexed bonds," Research Paper 9637, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Francis Breedon & Jagjit S. Chadha, 2003. "Investigating Excess Returns from Nominal Bonds," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(1), pages 73-90, February.
- Lioui, Abraham & Poncet, Patrice, 2005. "General equilibrium pricing of CPI derivatives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1265-1294, May.
- D. Robertson & J. Symons, 1993.
"Real interest rates and index linked gilts,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
20923, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Robertson, Donald & Symons, James, 1997. "Real Interest Rates and Index-Linked Gilts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(1), pages 25-43, January.
- Benninga, Simon & Protopapadakis, Aris, 1983. "Real and Nominal Interest Rates under Uncertainty: The Fisher Theorem and the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(5), pages 856-67, October.
- Mark Deacon & Andrew Derry, 1994. "Deriving Estimates of Inflation Expectations from the Prices of UK Government Bonds," Bank of England working papers 23, Bank of England.
- Gabriel de Kock, 1991. "Expected inflation and real interest rates based on index-linked bond prices: the U.K. experience," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aut, pages 47-60.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996.
"A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1125, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Eli M. Remolona & Michael Wickens & Frank F. Gong, 1998.
"What was the market's view of U.K. monetary policy? Estimating inflation risk and expected inflation with indexed bonds,"
57, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Jacobs, Mike & Remolona, Eli & Wickens, Michael R., 1998. "What was the Market's View of UK Monetary Policy? Estimating Inflation Risk and Expected Inflation with Indexed Bonds," CEPR Discussion Papers 2022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003.
"Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 280-310, April.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000.
"Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets,"
99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
- Madureira, Leonardo, 2007. "The ex ante real rate and inflation premium under a habit consumption model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 355-382, June.
- Pu Shen, 1995. "Benefits and limitations of inflation indexed Treasury bonds," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 41-56.
- Joyce, Michael A.S. & Lildholdt, Peter & Sorensen, Steffen, 2010.
"Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: A joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 281-294, February.
- Joyce, Michael & Lildholdt, Peter & Sorensen, Steffen, 2009. "Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: a joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves," Bank of England working papers 360, Bank of England.
- Rohan Christie-David & Mukesh Chaudhry & James T. Lindley, 2003. "The Effects of Unanticipated Macroeconomic News on Debt Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 26(3), pages 319-339.
- Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997.
"What moves the bond market?,"
9706, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Schubert, Stefan & Broll, Udo, 2005. "Dynamic Hedging of Real Wealth Risk," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 01/05, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
- Lee, Jim, 2006. "The comovement between output and prices: Evidence from a dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 110-116, April.
- Smales, Lee A., 2013. "Bond futures and order imbalance," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 113-132.
- Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1988. "Economic news, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, March.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 2007. "Inflation expectations and inflation forecasting," Speech 306, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010.
"Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 113-134, 02.
- Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?," Working Papers 2007-11, Banco de México.
- García, Juan Angel & Werner, Thomas, 2010. "Inflation risks and inflation risk premia," Working Paper Series 1162, European Central Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:28:y:2014:i:c:p:82-99. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.