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Minute-by-Minute Dynamics of the Australian Bond Futures Market in Response to New Macroeconomic Information

In: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses

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  • Suk-Joong Kim
  • Jeffrey Sheen

Abstract

This chapter investigates the response efficiency of the 10-year Australian Commonwealth bond futures market to the news contents of the Australian scheduled information release from January 1993 to July 1997. Using Money Market Services market expectations data to generate the news component of announcements, we find that the futures price falls in response to higher than expected current account deficit, inflation, GDP and retail sales announcements, whereas an unexpected rise in unemployment raised it. In addition to the price response, there is strong evidence of elevated volatility of the price and of trading volumes following all five news announcements. More importantly, most of the market adjustments (of price and volatility) to new information were completed during the first minute following each news announcement suggesting market efficiency of the Australian futures market. The trading volumes, on the other hand, continue to respond to news for one hour following the news release. This suggests that, after the new equilibrium price has been quickly established and its volatility dispersed, volume trading persists for the purposes of portfolio re-balancing by liquidity traders and for establishing a complete consensus amongst traders.

Suggested Citation

  • Suk-Joong Kim & Jeffrey Sheen, 2018. "Minute-by-Minute Dynamics of the Australian Bond Futures Market in Response to New Macroeconomic Information," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 7, pages 203-227, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789813223585_0007
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    2. Pearce, Douglas K. & Solakoglu, M. Nihat, 2007. "Macroeconomic news and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 307-325, October.
    3. Roberto Casarin & Flaminio Squazzoni, 2013. "Being on the Field When the Game Is Still Under Way. The Financial Press and Stock Markets in Times of Crisis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-14, July.
    4. Kanas, Angelos, 2014. "Bond futures, inflation-indexed bonds, and inflation risk premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 82-99.
    5. Parker, John, 2007. "The Impact Of Economic News On Financial Markets," MPRA Paper 2675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Richard Finlay & Ben Jackman & Dmitry Titkov, 2025. "Back to the Futures: Liquidity in Australian Bond Futures amid Market-moving Events since COVID-19," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2025-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Lee A. Smales, 2013. "Impact Of Macroeconomic Announcements On Interest Rate Futures: High-Frequency Evidence From Australia," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 371-388, September.
    8. Smales, Lee A., 2012. "30-Day Interbank futures: Investigating the process of price discovery following RBA cash target rate announcements," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 1006-1023.
    9. Roberto Casarin & Flaminio Squazzoni, 2012. "Financial press and stock markets in times of crisis," Working Papers 2012_04, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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