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The Ties that Bind: Measuring International Bond Spillovers Using Inflation-Indexed Bond Yields

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  • Tamim Bayoumi
  • Andrew Swiston

Abstract

This paper explores international bond spillovers using daily and weekly data on yields on inflation-indexed bonds and associated inflation expectations for the United States, Australia, Canada, France, Sweden, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The analysis starts in 2002, by which point U.S. inflation-indexed markets had matured. Real bond yields are found to be closely linked across countries, with developments in U.S. markets determining around half of real foreign yields and no evidence of spillovers back to the United States. Spillovers in inflation expectations are smaller and the direction of causation is less clear.

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  • Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2010. "The Ties that Bind: Measuring International Bond Spillovers Using Inflation-Indexed Bond Yields," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 366-406, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:57:y:2010:i:2:p:366-406
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    Cited by:

    1. Winkelmann, Lars & Netsunajev, Aleksei, 2015. "International Transmissions of Inflation Expectations in a Markov Switching Structural VAR Model," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112900, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Mr. Trung T Bui & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2012. "Global Bonding: Do U.S. Bond and Equity Spillovers Dominate Global Financial Markets?," IMF Working Papers 2012/298, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2009. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 353-383, June.

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