Modeling returns and volatility transmission between oil price and US–Nigeria exchange rate
This paper models returns and volatility transmission between oil price (OP) and US–Nigeria exchange rate (EXR). Consequently, it provides five main innovations: (i) it analyzes OP and EXR using the recently developed test by Narayan and Popp (2010) (NP) which allows for two structural breaks in the data series (ii) it employs the Narayan and Liu (2011) (NL) GARCH unit root test to evaluate robustness of NP test (iii) it considers the newly developed VAR-GARCH model to capture the spillover effects in the returns and volatility of OP and EXR; (iv) it modifies the VAR-GARCH model to account for structural breaks obtained from the NP procedure and (v) using the results obtained from the VAR-GARCH model, it examines the optimal weights of holding oil and foreign exchange (FX) assets and also computes the hedging ratios in the presence of oil risk. Based on the NP and NL tests, it finds robust structural breaks that coincide with the period of global financial crisis as well as period of FX crisis in Nigeria. Also, it establishes a bidirectional returns and spillover transmission between oil and FX markets. Finally, its findings reveal evidence of hedging effectiveness involving oil and FX markets in Nigeria and thus, the inclusion of oil into a diversified portfolio of FX will improve its risk-adjusted return performance.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Salisu, Afees A. & Fasanya, Ismail O., 2013. "Modelling oil price volatility with structural breaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 554-562.
- Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003.
"Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 280-310, April.
- Ding, Liang & Vo, Minh, 2012. "Exchange rates and oil prices: A multivariate stochastic volatility analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 15-37.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-270, July.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "ZIVOT: RATS procedure to perform Zivot-Andrews Unit Root Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00236, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2010.
"Oil price dynamics and speculation: A multivariate financial approach,"
Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 363-372, March.
- Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2008. "Oil price Dynamics and Speculation. A Multivariate Financial Approach," Working Papers - Economics wp2008_15.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
- Golub, Stephen S, 1983. "Oil Prices and Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 576-593, September.
- Hammoudeh, S.M. & Yuan, Y. & McAleer, M.J., 2008.
"Shock and volatility spillovers among equity sectors of the Gulf Arab stock markets,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2008-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Hammoudeh, Shawkat M. & Yuan, Yuan & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Shock and volatility spillovers among equity sectors of the Gulf Arab stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 829-842, August.
- Rautava, Jouko, 2004. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy--a cointegration approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-327, June.
- Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
- Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Valérie Mignon & Alexis Penot, 2005.
"China and the Relationship Between the Oil Price and the Dollar,"
2005-16, CEPII research center.
- Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Mignon, Valerie & Penot, Alexis, 2007. "China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5795-5805, November.
- Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00634796, HAL.
- Alexis Penot & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Valérie Mignon, 2007. "China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Post-Print halshs-00201394, HAL.
- El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1387-1405.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997.
"Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "LPUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Lumsdaine-Papell unit root test with structural breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00110, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011.
"Return and volatility transmission between world oil prices and stock markets of the GCC countries,"
Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1815-1825, July.
- Duc Khuong Nguyen & Mohamed Arouri & Amine Lahiani, 2011. "Return and volatility transmission between world oil prices and stock markets of the GCC countries," EcoMod2011 2820, EcoMod.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2009.
"A New Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks in Level and Slope at Unknown Time,"
2009_11, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2010. "A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1425-1438.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992.
"Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
- Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2013. "A wavelet decomposition approach to crude oil price and exchange rate dependence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-57.
- Huang, Ying & Guo, Feng, 2007. "The role of oil price shocks on China's real exchange rate," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 403-416.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2011.
"Are shocks to commodity prices persistent?,"
Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 409-416, January.
- Yousefi, Ayoub & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2004. "The empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude-oil price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 783-799, September.
- Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
- Brahim Razgallah & Kamal Smimou, 2011. "Oil prices and the greenback: it takes two to tango," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 519-528.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Prasad, Arti, 2008. "Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2686-2696, September.
- Zhang, Yue-Jun & Fan, Ying & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Spillover effect of US dollar exchange rate on oil prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 973-991.
- Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chen, Hung-Chyn, 2007. "Oil prices and real exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 390-404, May.
- Benhmad, François, 2012. "Modeling nonlinear Granger causality between the oil price and U.S. dollar: A wavelet based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1505-1514.
- Virginie Coudert & Valérie Mignon & Alexis Penot, 2008. "Oil Price and the Dollar," Post-Print halshs-00353404, HAL.
- Ghosh, Sajal, 2011. "Examining crude oil price - Exchange rate nexus for India during the period of extreme oil price volatility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(5), pages 1886-1889, May.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
- Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2006. "The Turning Black Tide: Energy Prices and the Canadian Dollar," Staff Working Papers 06-29, Bank of Canada.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2011.
"Size and power properties of structural break unit root tests,"
Financial Econometics Series
2011_07, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2013. "Size and power properties of structural break unit root tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 721-728, February.
- Paul Krugman, 1983. "Oil Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 259-284 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Iwayemi, Akin & Fowowe, Babajide, 2011. "Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 603-612, February.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:39:y:2013:i:c:p:169-176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.