IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v34y2012i3p714-722.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Permit price dynamics in the U.S. SO2 trading program: A cointegration approach

Author

Listed:
  • Boutabba, Mohamed Amine
  • Beaumais, Olivier
  • Lardic, Sandrine

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study empirically the determination and the dynamic behavior of the SO2 permit prices. Previous research focused on ex-post market price analysis without taking weather conditions into account. Therefore, this study attempts to fill a gap in the literature by providing new empirical evidence on the SO2 price evolution and its interactions with macroeconomic variables, microeconomic variables and climate variables. Using monthly data from January 1995 to December 2006, our estimation results indicate the existence of a long-term relationship between SO2 permit price, scrubbing costs, industrial production, and weather conditions. In the short run, SO2 permit price is affected by scrubbing costs, energy prices, and weather conditions. Policy makers and private investors could benefit from the findings of this study that provides useful information on the characteristics of the SO2 market and may plan their strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Boutabba, Mohamed Amine & Beaumais, Olivier & Lardic, Sandrine, 2012. "Permit price dynamics in the U.S. SO2 trading program: A cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 714-722.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:3:p:714-722
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.04.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988311000879
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.04.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    2. Burtraw, Dallas, 1995. "Cost Savings sans Allowance Trades? Evaluating the SO2 Emission Trading Program to Date," RFF Working Paper Series dp-95-30-rev, Resources for the Future.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Coggins, Jay S. & Swinton, John R., 1996. "The Price of Pollution: A Dual Approach to Valuing SO2Allowances," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 58-72, January.
    5. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    6. Considine, Timothy J., 2000. "The impacts of weather variations on energy demand and carbon emissions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 295-314, October.
    7. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393, Decembrie.
    8. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    9. Winebrake, James J. & Farrell, Alexander E. & Bernstein, Mark A., 1995. "The clean air act's sulfur dioxide emissions market: Estimating the costs of regulatory and legislative intervention," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 239-260, November.
    10. Ellerman, A. Denny & Montero, Juan-Pablo, 1998. "The Declining Trend in Sulfur Dioxide Emissions: Implications for Allowance Prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 26-45, July.
    11. Schennach, Susanne M., 2000. "The Economics of Pollution Permit Banking in the Context of Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 189-210, November.
    12. Curtis Carlson & Dallas Burtraw & Maureen Cropper & Karen L. Palmer, 2000. "Sulfur Dioxide Control by Electric Utilities: What Are the Gains from Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(6), pages 1292-1326, December.
    13. Xiao, Zhijie & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2002. "A CUSUM test for cointegration using regression residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 43-61, May.
    14. Hahn, Robert W. & May, Carol A., 1994. "The behavior of the allowance market: Theory and evidence," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 28-37, March.
    15. Joskow, Paul L & Schmalensee, Richard & Bailey, Elizabeth M, 1998. "The Market for Sulfur Dioxide Emissions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 669-685, September.
    16. David Popp, 2003. "Pollution control innovations and the Clean Air Act of 1990," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 641-660.
    17. Inder, Brett, 1993. "Estimating long-run relationships in economics : A comparison of different approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 53-68.
    18. Arimura, Toshi H., 2002. "An Empirical Study of the SO2 Allowance Market: Effects of PUC Regulations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 271-289, September.
    19. A. Denny Ellerman & Juan-Pablo Montero, 2007. "The Efficiency and Robustness of Allowance Banking in the U.S. Acid Rain Program," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 47-72.
    20. Cason, Timothy N. & Gangadharan, Lata, 2006. "Emissions variability in tradable permit markets with imperfect enforcement and banking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 199-216, October.
    21. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    22. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, Decembrie.
    23. Fullerton, Don & McDermott, Shaun P. & Caulkins, Jonathan P., 1997. "Sulfur Dioxide Compliance of a Regulated Utility," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 32-53, September.
    24. Ellerman,A. Denny & Joskow,Paul L. & Schmalensee,Richard & Montero,Juan-Pablo & Bailey,Elizabeth M., 2005. "Markets for Clean Air," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023894.
      • Ellerman,A. Denny & Joskow,Paul L. & Schmalensee,Richard & Montero,Juan-Pablo & Bailey,Elizabeth M., 2000. "Markets for Clean Air," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521660839, January.
    25. Godby, Robert W. & Mestelman, Stuart & Muller, R. Andrew & Welland, J. Douglas, 1997. "Emissions Trading with Shares and Coupons when Control over Discharges Is Uncertain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 359-381, March.
    26. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    27. Sotkiewicz, Paul M. & Holt, Lynne, 2005. "Public Utility Commission Regulation and Cost-Effectiveness of Title IV: Lessons for CAIR," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(8), pages 68-80, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bing Zhang & Yongliang Zhang, 2016. "Policy Conflicts and the Performance of Emissions Trading Markets: An Adaptive Agent-based Analysis," EEPSEA Research Report rr20160339, Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA), revised Mar 2016.
    2. Evangelina Dardati & Julio Riutort, 2016. "Cap-and-Trade and Financial Constraints: Is Investment Independent of Permit Holdings?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(4), pages 841-864, December.
    3. Evangelina Dardati & Julio Riutort, 2013. "Financial Constraints and Investment: A Quasi-Experiment in the Electricity Sector," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv293, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    4. Li, Xu & Wu, Xiaole & Zhang, Fuqiang, 2015. "A method for analyzing pollution control policies: Application to SO2 emissions in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 451-459.
    5. Mohamed Amine Boutaba, 2009. "Investigating efficiency in the U.S sulfur dioxide permit market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1308-1319.
    6. Lin, Boqiang & Jiang, Zhujun & Zhang, Peng, 2011. "Allocation of sulphur dioxide allowance – An analysis based on a survey of power plants in Fujian province in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3120-3129.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burtraw, Dallas & Szambelan, Sarah Jo, 2009. "U.S. Emissions Trading Markets for SO2 and NOx," RFF Working Paper Series dp-09-40, Resources for the Future.
    2. Holland, Stephen P. & Moore, Michael R., 2013. "Market design in cap and trade programs: Permit validity and compliance timing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 671-687.
    3. Mohamed Amine Boutabba, 2009. "Investigating efficiency in the U.S sulfur dioxide permit market," Post-Print hal-03586418, HAL.
    4. Olivier Rousse & Benoît Sévi, 2005. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in the US Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Allowance Trading Program," ERSA conference papers ersa05p550, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Robert W. Hahn & Robert N. Stavins, 2011. "The Effect of Allowance Allocations on Cap-and-Trade System Performance," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(S4), pages 267-294.
    6. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Do house prices hedge inflation in the US? A quantile cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 15-26.
    7. Singh, Tarlok, 2010. "Does domestic saving cause economic growth? A time-series evidence from India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 231-253, March.
    8. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & María Montero-Muñoz, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investment and Trade: A Causality Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 305-323, July.
    9. Yaya Keho, 2011. "Long‐Run Determinants Of Savings Rates In Waemu Countries: An Empirical Assessment From Ardl Bounds Testing Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(3), pages 312-329, September.
    10. Stowe, Robert C & Stavins, Robert Norman & Chan, Gabriel Angelo & Sweeney, Richard Leonard, 2012. "The SO2 Allowance Trading System and the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990: Reflections on Twenty Years of Policy Innovation," Scholarly Articles 8160721, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    11. Lata Gangadharan & Rachel Croson & Alex Farrell, 2013. "Investment decisions and emissions reductions: results from experiments in emissions trading," Chapters, in: John A. List & Michael K. Price (ed.), Handbook on Experimental Economics and the Environment, chapter 8, pages 233-264, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Singh, Tarlok, 2008. "Testing the Saving-Investment correlations in India: An evidence from single-equation and system estimators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1064-1079, September.
    13. Richard Schmalensee & Robert N. Stavins, 2013. "The SO 2 Allowance Trading System: The Ironic History of a Grand Policy Experiment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 103-122, Winter.
    14. Haiqi Li Author-Name-First: Haiqi & Jing Zhang & Chaowen Zheng, 2023. "Estimating and Testing for Functional Coefficient Quantile Cointegrating Regression," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-07, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    15. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.
    16. Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2001. "Euro-land: any good for the European South?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-81, January.
    17. Arimura, Toshi H., 2002. "An Empirical Study of the SO2 Allowance Market: Effects of PUC Regulations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 271-289, September.
    18. Efthymios Tsionas, 2003. "Inflation and Productivity in Europe: An Empirical Investigation," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 39-62, March.
    19. Mohamed Amine Boutaba, 2009. "Investigating efficiency in the U.S sulfur dioxide permit market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1308-1319.
    20. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    SO2 emission permits; Price fundamentals;

    JEL classification:

    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:3:p:714-722. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.