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A CUSUM test for cointegration using regression residuals

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  • Xiao, Zhijie
  • Phillips, Peter C. B.

Abstract

We show that the conventional CUSUM test for structural change can be applied to cointegrating regression residuals leading to a consistent residual based test for the null hypothesis of cointegration. The proposed tests are semiparametric and utilize fully modified residuals to correct for endogeneity and serial correlation and to scale out nuisance parameters. The limit distribution of the test is derived under both the null and the alternative hypothesis. The tests are easy to use and are found to perform quite well in a Monte Carlo experiment.
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  • Xiao, Zhijie & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2002. "A CUSUM test for cointegration using regression residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 43-61, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:108:y:2002:i:1:p:43-61
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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
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    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
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    5. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
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    8. Sheather, Simon J., 1986. "An improved data-based algorithm for choosing the window width when estimating the density at a point," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 61-65, June.
    9. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
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    12. Barnett,William A. & Powell,James & Tauchen,George E. (ed.), 1991. "Nonparametric and Semiparametric Methods in Econometrics and Statistics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521370905.
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    19. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-285, March.
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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