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Investigating efficiency in the U.S sulfur dioxide permit market

  • Mohamed Amine Boutaba

    ()

    (University of Rouen)

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    This paper constitutes –to our best knowledge– the first empirical analysis investigating long-run and short-run efficiency in the U.S sulfur dioxide (SO2) permit futures market with respect to its ability to unbiasedly predict future spot prices, using cointegration and error-correction models. Empirical results show that the market is inefficient, suggesting the presence of profitable arbitrage opportunities among U.S SO2 permit prices. In light of our findings, we recommend that market actors consider warily the information incorporated in SO2 futures prices.

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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2009/Volume29/EB-09-V29-I2-P75.pdf
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    Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

    Volume (Year): 29 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 1308-1319

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    Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00126
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    1. John R. Swinton, 2002. "The Potential for Cost Savings in the Sulfur Dioxide Allowance Market: Empirical Evidence from Florida," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 78(3), pages 390-404.
    2. Richard Schmalensee & Paul L. Joskow & A. Denny Ellerman & Juan Pablo Montero & Elizabeth M. Bailey, 1998. "An Interim Evaluation of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Trading," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 53-68, Summer.
    3. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. J. Albrecht & T. Verbeke & M. De Clercq, 2004. "Informational efficiency of the US SO2 permit market," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/250, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. A. Denny Ellerman & Juan-Pablo Montero, 2005. "The Efficiency and Robustness of Allowance Banking in the U.S. Acid Rain Program," Working Papers 0505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    7. Freeman, Jody & Kolstad, Charles D., 2006. "Moving to Markets in Environmental Regulation: Lessons from Twenty Years of Experience," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195189650, March.
    8. Joskow, Paul L & Schmalensee, Richard & Bailey, Elizabeth M, 1998. "The Market for Sulfur Dioxide Emissions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 669-85, September.
    9. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    10. Burtraw, Dallas & Palmer, Karen & Krupnick, Alan & Evans, David & Toth, Russell, 2005. "Economics of Pollution Trading for SO2 and NOx," Discussion Papers dp-05-05, Resources For the Future.
    11. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521023894 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
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