Global oil trading networks: Structural patterns and geopolitical risks

The intensification of global oil market linkages has elevated the relevance of geopolitical risk (GPR) as a determinant of trade patterns and energy security exposure. This study investigates how international oil trade has been reshaped over the period 2009–2023, with a particular emphasis on the role of GPR in influencing network centrality across the global trading system. Using monthly trade data from 42 economies, we combine network topology methods with panel regression analysis to map the evolution of oil trade interdependencies. Results indicate that the United States, Russia, Germany, China, and India function as core hubs that anchor and expand the architecture of global oil flows. Regression results reveal that heightened GPR systematically increases network centrality and trade intensity. Mechanism analysis points to two reinforcing channels: geopolitical disruptions inhibit the diffusion of renewable energy and simultaneously magnify characteristics associated with the resource curse, thereby strengthening reliance on fossil fuels. In addition, spatial spillovers are evident, as regional shocks propagate outward and alter trade structures well beyond the originating countries. These findings underscore the necessity of embedding geopolitical dimensions into domestic and international energy policy design, as oil trade networks are susceptible to risk transmission across borders.