The dynamic evolution mechanism of structural dependence characteristics in the global oil trade network

This study aims to reveal the evolution mechanisms of the petroleum trade network by examining its dynamic evolution of structural dependence characteristics. We conduct an in-depth examination of the dynamic structural evolution of the global trade network by employing the TERGM and STERGM models, and utilizing oil trade data spanning the years 1997–2021. To understand the stability of oil network trade dependence, we incorporate the cascading failure and the ERGM models to simulate the impact of external supply crises on the structural dependency relations of the oil trade network. Our findings can be summarized as follows: first, reciprocal trade structures play a crucial role in building trade relationships, with countries emphasizing mutually beneficial partnerships. Second, with the increasing complexity of the global trade landscape, the stability and resilience of the oil trade network structure have experienced notable declines. Third, in response to external shocks, countries tend to diversify their oil trade relations to ensure energy supply security. The results suggest that the government should pay more attention to the oil trade dependency relationships.