Study on the evolutionary characteristics and robustness of the global refined oil trade network

Under the increasingly uncertain external environment characterized by intensified geopolitical turbulence and rising trade protectionism, global energy trade faces multiple supply disruption risks. However, the evolutionary characteristics and robustness of global trade networks for refined oil, as primary oil consumption commodities, have not been systematically investigated. To fill this gap, this study conducts a comparative analysis of the topological characteristics, community evolution, and robustness of two global refined oil trade networks (GROTN) using complex network theory. The findings reveal that heavy oil trade exhibited higher trade efficiency than light oil from 2012 to 2021, attributed to its structural complexity. Both GROTN types exhibit scale-free network characteristics following power-law distributions. Developed Western countries and traditional oil-producing nations serve as primary exporters, while developed and emerging economies in Europe, the Americas, and Southeast Asia constitute major demand hubs. External factors, including economic fluctuations and geopolitical realignments, have driven geographical agglomeration and scale-based divergence in major trading communities. Regarding robustness, both networks demonstrate high resilience against random node failures but exhibit vulnerability to targeted attacks on important nodes. Furthermore, the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method enhances objectivity in multi-dimensional node importance evaluation, with node strength and betweenness centrality demonstrating superior discriminative capacity in ranking nodes across both GROTN types. Based on these systematic investigations, policy recommendations such as diversifying import sources, establishing regional trade alliances, and creating a global risk early warning platform have substantial practical significance for enhancing global energy trade security.