A methodology to evaluate the dynamic resilience of an LNG shipping network by a load redistribution strategy: A case in China

Examination of the dynamic resilience of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping network is essential to ensure a sustainable and stable energy supply during significant disturbance events characterized by uncertainty. The AIS data from September 4, 2023, to September 21, 2024, were collected to establish China's LNG import shipping network, which contains ports and critical maritime chokepoints. For significant disturbance events characterized by uncertainty, the load redistribution strategy is presented to quantitatively describe the dynamic recovery process of network functionality from the perspective of network resilience. As a result, the three network parameters obtained from the load redistribution algorithm— the congestion rate, failure rate, and voyage loss—are used to calculate the network resilience. The failure of critical maritime infrastructure (such as the unavailability of the Strait of Malacca) is selected as an example of a significant disturbance event, the effect of which is analysed. In addition, to explore the effect of the load tolerance and failure rate of nodes on network resilience, a sensitivity analysis is implemented. The results of this study provide practical insights that can help stakeholders and decision-makers understand the level of network resilience, thereby assisting them in emergency decision-making.