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Will Sino–U.S. trade friction affect the resilience of the global backbone industry network?

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  • Xing, Kexin
  • Yuan, Yuan

Abstract

Amid escalating Sino–U.S. trade friction centered on the semiconductor industry, the global backbone industry network (GBIN) is constructed in this paper using data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and an enhanced Weighted PageRank (WPR) algorithm. A multidimensional resilience assessment framework is proposed, encompassing three analytical dimensions: overall GBIN resilience, node-level vulnerability, and subgroup stability. Simulation-based attack strategies are applied to evaluate the impact of trade friction in the semiconductor and high-end technology sectors on the resilience of GBIN. The results indicate that the GBIN’s overall resilience is negatively affected, cascading failure reaction occurs, the failure of key nodes are negatively propagated across industries through network connections, and minor subgroup restructuring occurs. Policy recommendations are provided to enhance the GBIN’s stability and inform national responses to trade-related disruptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Xing, Kexin & Yuan, Yuan, 2025. "Will Sino–U.S. trade friction affect the resilience of the global backbone industry network?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 893-908.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:87:y:2025:i:c:p:893-908
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.06.033
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