Enhancing energy security through multi-scale network analysis: robustness in global crude oil shipping–trade networks

The stable operation of the global crude oil supply chain is vital to energy security, and the close connection between shipping and trade networks critically determines the system’s ability to respond to unexpected disruptions. However, systematic quantitative assessments of robustness mechanisms across their multi-scale structures remain limited. This study aims to establish a multi-scale crude oil shipping–trade network (MCOSTN), then systematically assess its robustness under realistic disruption scenarios, identify critical nodes and propose measures to enhance network resilience. A multi-scale nested analytical framework is developed, constructing a port-level shipping network and a country-level trade network through AIS data mining techniques. Based on this, robustness of the MCOSTN is precisely evaluated using node load penalty factors, simulating flow redistribution and cascading failures following node disruptions. Results indicate that robustness assessments under different attack strategies demonstrate that flow-based attacks cause the most severe disruptions to network performance, whereas node centrality indicators exhibit relatively limited impacts. Dynamic node failure simulations further confirm that simultaneous failures of critical chokepoints can severely impair global crude oil transport functionality. Additionally, sensitivity analyses of load penalties underscore the critical role high-load nodes play in network performance degradation and cascading effects post-disruption. Conclusions emphasize the importance of enhancing physical network redundancy and trade network flexibility, recommending improved transportation capacities at secondary nodes, optimization of global strategic reserves, and strengthened security measures for critical nodes to significantly enhance the overall resilience of the global crude oil supply chain.