IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/econom/v192y2016i1p231-268.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bootstrap inference for instrumental variable models with many weak instruments

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Wenjie
  • Kaffo, Maximilien

Abstract

This study’s main contribution is to theoretically analyze the application of bootstrap methods to instrumental variable models when the available instruments may be weak and the number of instruments goes to infinity with the sample size. We demonstrate that a standard residual-based bootstrap procedure cannot consistently estimate the distribution of the limited information maximum likelihood estimator or Fuller (1977) estimator under many/many weak instrument sequence. The primary reason is that the standard procedure fails to capture the instrument strength in the sample adequately. In addition, we consider the restricted efficient (RE) bootstrap of Davidson and MacKinnon (2008, 2010, 2014) that generates bootstrap data under the null (restricted) and uses an efficient estimator of the coefficient of the reduced-form equation (efficient). We find that the RE bootstrap is also invalid; however, it effectively mimics more key features in the limiting distributions of interest, and thus, is less distorted in finite samples than the standard bootstrap procedure. Finally, we propose modified bootstrap procedures that provide a valid distributional approximation for the two estimators with many/many weak instruments. A Monte Carlo experiment shows that hypothesis testing based on the asymptotic normal approximation can have severe size distortions in finite samples. Instead, our modified bootstrap procedures greatly reduce these distortions.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Wenjie & Kaffo, Maximilien, 2016. "Bootstrap inference for instrumental variable models with many weak instruments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 231-268.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:192:y:2016:i:1:p:231-268
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.12.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407615003152
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.12.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xiong, Shifeng & Li, Guoying, 2008. "Some results on the convergence of conditional distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(18), pages 3249-3253, December.
    2. Donald W. K. Andrews & Xu Cheng, 2012. "Estimation and Inference With Weak, Semi‐Strong, and Strong Identification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 2153-2211, September.
    3. Antoine, Bertille & Renault, Eric, 2012. "Efficient minimum distance estimation with multiple rates of convergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 350-367.
    4. Chao, John C. & Swanson, Norman R. & Hausman, Jerry A. & Newey, Whitney K. & Woutersen, Tiemen, 2012. "Asymptotic Distribution Of Jive In A Heteroskedastic Iv Regression With Many Instruments," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 42-86, February.
    5. Donald, Stephen G & Newey, Whitney K, 2001. "Choosing the Number of Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1161-1191, September.
    6. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2008. "Bootstrap inference in a linear equation estimated by instrumental variables," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(3), pages 443-477, November.
    7. Guido Kuersteiner & Ryo Okui, 2010. "Constructing Optimal Instruments by First-Stage Prediction Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 697-718, March.
    8. Antoine, Bertille & Renault, Eric, 2020. "Testing identification strength," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 271-293.
    9. Brown, Bryan W & Newey, Whitney K, 2002. "Generalized Method of Moments, Efficient Bootstrapping, and Improved Inference," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 507-517, October.
    10. Anderson, T.W. & Kunitomo, Naoto & Matsushita, Yukitoshi, 2010. "On the asymptotic optimality of the LIML estimator with possibly many instruments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 191-204, August.
    11. John C. Chao & Norman R. Swanson, 2005. "Consistent Estimation with a Large Number of Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(5), pages 1673-1692, September.
    12. Yoosoon Chang & Joon Y. Park, 2003. "A Sieve Bootstrap For The Test Of A Unit Root," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 379-400, July.
    13. Anatolyev, Stanislav & Gospodinov, Nikolay, 2011. "Specification Testing In Models With Many Instruments," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 427-441, April.
    14. Rothenberg, Thomas J., 1984. "Approximating the distributions of econometric estimators and test statistics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 881-935, Elsevier.
    15. Horowitz, J., 1996. "Bootstrap Critical Values For Tests Based On The Smoothed Maximum Score Estimator," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,44, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    16. Bekker, Paul A. & Crudu, Federico, 2015. "Jackknife instrumental variable estimation with heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 332-342.
    17. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
    18. Hall, Peter & Horowitz, Joel L, 1996. "Bootstrap Critical Values for Tests Based on Generalized-Method-of-Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 891-916, July.
    19. Anatolyev, Stanislav, 2012. "Inference in regression models with many regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 368-382.
    20. Bertille Antoine & Eric Renault, 2009. "Efficient GMM with nearly-weak instruments," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(s1), pages 135-171, January.
    21. Whitney K. Newey & Frank Windmeijer, 2009. "Generalized Method of Moments With Many Weak Moment Conditions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 687-719, May.
    22. Fuller, Wayne A, 1977. "Some Properties of a Modification of the Limited Information Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(4), pages 939-953, May.
    23. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 2010. "Wild Bootstrap Tests for IV Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 128-144.
    24. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Keueger, 1991. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014.
    25. Marcelo J. Moreira, 2003. "A Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test for Structural Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1027-1048, July.
    26. Bekker, Paul A, 1994. "Alternative Approximations to the Distributions of Instrumental Variable Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 657-681, May.
    27. Moreira, Marcelo J. & Porter, Jack R. & Suarez, Gustavo A., 2009. "Bootstrap validity for the score test when instruments may be weak," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 52-64, April.
    28. Phillips, Garry D A & Hale, C, 1977. "The Bias of Instrumental Variable Estimators of Simultaneous Equation Systems," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(1), pages 219-228, February.
    29. Jerry A. Hausman & Whitney K. Newey & Tiemen Woutersen & John C. Chao & Norman R. Swanson, 2012. "Instrumental variable estimation with heteroskedasticity and many instruments," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 3(2), pages 211-255, July.
    30. Chao, John C. & Hausman, Jerry A. & Newey, Whitney K. & Swanson, Norman R. & Woutersen, Tiemen, 2014. "Testing overidentifying restrictions with many instruments and heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 15-21.
    31. Anderson, T.W. & Kunitomo, Naoto & Matsushita, Yukitoshi, 2011. "On finite sample properties of alternative estimators of coefficients in a structural equation with many instruments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(1), pages 58-69.
    32. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    33. Frank Kleibergen, 2002. "Pivotal Statistics for Testing Structural Parameters in Instrumental Variables Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1781-1803, September.
    34. Angrist, J D & Imbens, G W & Krueger, A B, 1999. "Jackknife Instrumental Variables Estimation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 57-67, Jan.-Feb..
    35. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2014. "Bootstrap Confidence Sets with Weak Instruments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5-6), pages 651-675, August.
    36. Hansen, Christian & Hausman, Jerry & Newey, Whitney, 2008. "Estimation With Many Instrumental Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 398-422.
    37. Morimune, Kimio, 1983. "Approximate Distributions of k-Class Estimators When the Degree of Overidentifiability Is Large Compared with the Sample Size," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 821-841, May.
    38. Joel L. Horowitz, 1996. "Bootstrap Critical Values for Tests Based on the Smoothed Maximum Score Estimator," Econometrics 9603003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marine Carrasco & Guy Tchuente, 2016. "Regularization Based Anderson Rubin Tests for Many Instruments," Studies in Economics 1608, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    2. Manuel Denzer & Constantin Weiser, 2021. "Beyond F-statistic - A General Approach for Assessing Weak Identification," Working Papers 2107, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    3. Wenjie Wang & Yichong Zhang, 2021. "Wild Bootstrap for Instrumental Variables Regressions with Weak and Few Clusters," Papers 2108.13707, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    4. Sølvsten, Mikkel, 2020. "Robust estimation with many instruments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 495-512.
    5. Kaffo, Maximilien & Wang, Wenjie, 2017. "On bootstrap validity for specification testing with many weak instruments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 107-111.
    6. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin & Wang, Wenjie, 2021. "Uniform Inference after Pretesting for Exogeneity with Heteroskedastic Data," MPRA Paper 106408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Wang, Wenjie, 2021. "Bootstrap Inference for Partially Linear Model with Many Regressors," MPRA Paper 106391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Wang, Wenjie & Doko Tchatoka, Firmin, 2018. "On Bootstrap inconsistency and Bonferroni-based size-correction for the subset Anderson–Rubin test under conditional homoskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 188-211.
    9. Wang, Wenjie, 2021. "Wild Bootstrap for Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments and Few Clusters," MPRA Paper 106227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Wang, Wenjie, 2020. "On Bootstrap Validity for the Test of Overidentifying Restrictions with Many Instruments and Heteroskedasticity," MPRA Paper 104858, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Wenjie & Doko Tchatoka, Firmin, 2018. "On Bootstrap inconsistency and Bonferroni-based size-correction for the subset Anderson–Rubin test under conditional homoskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 188-211.
    2. Wang, Wenjie, 2021. "Wild Bootstrap for Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments and Few Clusters," MPRA Paper 106227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Wang, Wenjie, 2020. "On Bootstrap Validity for the Test of Overidentifying Restrictions with Many Instruments and Heteroskedasticity," MPRA Paper 104858, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kolesár, Michal, 2018. "Minimum distance approach to inference with many instruments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 86-100.
    5. Michal Kolesár & Raj Chetty & John Friedman & Edward Glaeser & Guido W. Imbens, 2015. "Identification and Inference With Many Invalid Instruments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 474-484, October.
    6. Carrasco, Marine & Tchuente, Guy, 2015. "Regularized LIML for many instruments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 427-442.
    7. Murray Michael P., 2017. "Linear Model IV Estimation When Instruments Are Many or Weak," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, January.
    8. Sølvsten, Mikkel, 2020. "Robust estimation with many instruments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 495-512.
    9. Bekker, Paul A. & Crudu, Federico, 2015. "Jackknife instrumental variable estimation with heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 332-342.
    10. Alastair R. Hall, 2015. "Econometricians Have Their Moments: GMM at 32," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(S1), pages 1-24, June.
    11. Crudu, Federico & Mellace, Giovanni & Sándor, Zsolt, 2021. "Inference In Instrumental Variable Models With Heteroskedasticity And Many Instruments," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(2), pages 281-310, April.
    12. Hansen, Christian & Kozbur, Damian, 2014. "Instrumental variables estimation with many weak instruments using regularized JIVE," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 290-308.
    13. John C. Chao & Norman R. Swanson, 2005. "Consistent Estimation with a Large Number of Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(5), pages 1673-1692, September.
    14. Antoine, Bertille & Lavergne, Pascal, 2014. "Conditional moment models under semi-strong identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 59-69.
    15. Horowitz, Joel L., 2021. "Bounding the difference between true and nominal rejection probabilities in tests of hypotheses about instrumental variables models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 1057-1082.
    16. Chao, John C. & Hausman, Jerry A. & Newey, Whitney K. & Swanson, Norman R. & Woutersen, Tiemen, 2014. "Testing overidentifying restrictions with many instruments and heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 15-21.
    17. John C. Chao & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Asymptotic Normality of Single-Equation Estimators for the Case with a Large Number of Weak Instruments," Departmental Working Papers 200312, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    18. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2013. "Instrumental variables estimation and inference in the presence of many exogenous regressors," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 16(1), pages 27-72, February.
    19. Wenjie Wang, 2012. "Bootstrapping Anderson-Rubin Statistic and J Statistic in Linear IV Models with Many Instruments," KIER Working Papers 810, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    20. Guo, Zijian & Kang, Hyunseung & Cai, T. Tony & Small, Dylan S., 2018. "Testing endogeneity with high dimensional covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 175-187.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bootstrap; Many instruments; Weak instruments; LIML; FULL; Corrected standard error;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:192:y:2016:i:1:p:231-268. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.