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Bootstrap inference in a linear equation estimated by instrumental variables

  • Russell Davidson
  • James G. MacKinnon

We study several tests for the coefficient of the single right-hand-side endogenous variable in a linear equation estimated by instrumental variables. We show that writing all the test statistics--Student's t, Anderson--Rubin, the LM statistic of Kleibergen and Moreira (K), and likelihood ratio (LR)--as functions of six random quantities leads to a number of interesting results about the properties of the tests under weak-instrument asymptotics. We then propose several new procedures for bootstrapping the three non-exact test statistics and also a new conditional bootstrap version of the LR test. These use more efficient estimates of the parameters of the reduced-form equation than existing procedures. When the best of these new procedures is used, both the K and conditional bootstrap LR tests have excellent performance under the null. However, power considerations suggest that the latter is probably the method of choice. Copyright The Author(s). Journal compilation Royal Economic Society 2008

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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal Econometrics Journal.

Volume (Year): 11 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
Pages: 443-477

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Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:11:y:2008:i:3:p:443-477
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  1. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
  2. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2004. "The Power of Bootstrap and Asymptotic Tests," Working Papers 1035, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
  4. Phillips, P.C.B., 1983. "Exact small sample theory in the simultaneous equations model," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 449-516 Elsevier.
  5. JAMES G. MacKINNON, 2006. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages S2-S18, 09.
  6. Davidson, R. & Mackinnon, J.G., 1996. "The Size Distorsion of Bootstrap Tests," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a15, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  7. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  8. D.S. Poskitt & C.L. Skeels, 2005. "Small Concentration Asymptotics and Instrumental Variables Inference," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 948, The University of Melbourne.
  9. Grant Hillier, 2006. "Exact properties of the conditional likelihood ratio test in an IV regression model," CeMMAP working papers CWP23/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  10. Marcelo J. Moreira, 2003. "A Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test for Structural Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1027-1048, 07.
  11. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2008. "Wild Bootstrap Tests for IV Regression," Working Papers 1135, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  12. Kleibergen, Frank, 2007. "Generalizing weak instrument robust IV statistics towards multiple parameters, unrestricted covariance matrices and identification statistics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 181-216, July.
  13. Marcelo J. Moreira & Jack R. Porter & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2004. "Bootstrap and Higher-Order Expansion Validity When Instruments May Be Weak," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2048, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  14. Donald W.K. Andrews & Marcelo J. Moreira & James H. Stock, 2004. "Optimal Invariant Similar Tests for Instrumental Variables Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1476, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Frank Kleibergen, 2002. "Pivotal Statistics for Testing Structural Parameters in Instrumental Variables Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1781-1803, September.
  16. Donald W. K. Andrews & Marcelo J. Moreira & James H. Stock, 2006. "Optimal Two-Sided Invariant Similar Tests for Instrumental Variables Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(3), pages 715-752, 05.
  17. Horowitz, Joel L. & Savin, N. E., 2000. "Empirically relevant critical values for hypothesis tests: A bootstrap approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 375-389, April.
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