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Bootstrap Inference in a Linear Equation Estimated by Instrumental Variables

  • Russell Davidson

    ()

    (GREQAM and McGill University)

  • James G. MacKinnon

    ()

    (Queen's University)

We study several tests for the coefficient of the single right-hand-side endogenous variable in a linear equation estimated by instrumental variables. We show that all the test statistics--Student's t, Anderson-Rubin, Kleibergen's K, and likelihood ratio (LR)--can be written as functions of six random quantities. This leads to a number of interesting results about the properties of the tests under weak-instrument asymptotics. We then propose several new procedures for bootstrapping the three non-exact test statistics and a conditional version of the LR test. These use more efficient estimates of the parameters of the reduced-form equation than existing procedures. When the best of these new procedures is used, K and conditional LR have excellent performance under the null, and LR also performs very well. However, power considerations suggest that the conditional LR test, bootstrapped using this new procedure when the sample size is not large, is probably the method of choice.

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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1024.pdf
File Function: First version 2006
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Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1024.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1024
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  1. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1999. "The Size Distortion Of Bootstrap Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 361-376, June.
  2. Phillips, P.C.B., 1983. "Exact small sample theory in the simultaneous equations model," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 449-516 Elsevier.
  3. Donald W. K. Andrews & Marcelo J. Moreira & James H. Stock, 2006. "Optimal Two-Sided Invariant Similar Tests for Instrumental Variables Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(3), pages 715-752, 05.
  4. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jean-Marie Dufour, 1997. "Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1365-1388, November.
  6. D. S. Poskitt & C. L. Skeels, 2005. "Small Concentration Asymptotics and Instrumental Variables Inference," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  7. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2008. "Wild Bootstrap Tests for IV Regression," Working Papers 1135, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  8. JAMES G. MacKINNON, 2006. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages S2-S18, 09.
  9. Kleibergen, Frank, 2007. "Generalizing weak instrument robust IV statistics towards multiple parameters, unrestricted covariance matrices and identification statistics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 181-216, July.
  10. Horowitz, Joel L. & Savin, N. E., 2000. "Empirically relevant critical values for hypothesis tests: A bootstrap approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 375-389, April.
  11. Grant Hillier, 2006. "Exact properties of the conditional likelihood ratio test in an IV regression model," CeMMAP working papers CWP23/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  12. Frank Kleibergen, 2002. "Pivotal Statistics for Testing Structural Parameters in Instrumental Variables Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1781-1803, September.
  13. Marcelo J. Moreira, 2003. "A Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test for Structural Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1027-1048, 07.
  14. Donald W.K. Andrews & Marcelo J. Moreira & James H. Stock, 2004. "Optimal Invariant Similar Tests for Instrumental Variables Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1476, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Marcelo J. Moreira & Jack R. Porter & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2004. "Bootstrap and Higher-Order Expansion Validity When Instruments May Be Weak," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2048, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  16. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2004. "The Power of Bootstrap and Asymptotic Tests," Working Papers 1035, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  17. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
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