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Exact Properties Of The Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test In An Iv Regression Model

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  • Hillier, Grant

Abstract

For a simplified structural equation/IV regression model with one right-side endogenous variable, we derive the exact conditional distribution function of Moreira's (2003) conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test statistic. This is used to obtain the critical value function needed to implement the CLR test, and reasonably comprehensive graphical versions of this function are provided for practical use. The analogous functions are also obtained for the case of testing more than one right-side endogenous coefficient, but in this case for a similar test motivated by, but not generally the same as, the likelihood ratio test. Next, the exact power functions of the CLR test, the Anderson-Rubin test, and the Lagrange multiplier test suggested by Kleibergen (2002) are derived and studied. The CLR test is shown to clearly conditionally dominate the other two tests for virtually all parameter configurations, but no test considered is either inadmissable or uniformly superior to the other two. The unconditional distribution function of the likelihood ratio test statistic is also derived using the same argument. This shows that both exactly, and under Staiger/Stock weak-instrument asymptotics, the test based on the usual asymptotic critical value is always oversized and can be very seriously so when the number of instruments is large.

Suggested Citation

  • Hillier, Grant, 2009. "Exact Properties Of The Conditional Likelihood Ratio Test In An Iv Regression Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 915-957, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:25:y:2009:i:04:p:915-957_09
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    Cited by:

    1. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2008. "Bootstrap inference in a linear equation estimated by instrumental variables," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(3), pages 443-477, November.
    2. Van de Sijpe, Nicolas & Windmeijer, Frank, 2023. "On the power of the conditional likelihood ratio and related tests for weak-instrument robust inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 82-104.
    3. Malte Londschien, 2025. "The exact distribution of the conditional likelihood-ratio test in instrumental variables regression," Papers 2509.04144, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    4. Russell Davidson & Victoria Zinde-Walsh, 2017. "Advances in specification testing," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1595-1631, December.
    5. Donald W. K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger, 2015. "Identification- and Singularity-Robust Inference for Moment Condition," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1978, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Kleibergen, Frank, 2007. "Generalizing weak instrument robust IV statistics towards multiple parameters, unrestricted covariance matrices and identification statistics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 181-216, July.

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