IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v156y2026ics0264999325004523.html

Leverage, liquidity, and investment: The cyclical effects of corporate debt

Author

Listed:
  • Gonzálvez, Rubén
  • Cárdenas, Luis

Abstract

How does corporate debt shape firms’ investment behavior across the business cycle? Using firm-level balance sheet data for Spanish companies over 1997–2019, we estimate a flexible panel data model and a doubly robust difference-in-differences design to identify the causal effect of leverage on investment. We find that leverage stimulates investment before 2008 but strongly contracts it during the post-2008 deleveraging period. After 2008, highly indebted firms reduce their investment rate by 1.8 percentage points more than less indebted firms. This contraction is concentrated among small and medium-sized enterprises, with micro firms cutting their investment rate by 6.3 percentage points and firms in construction showing particularly strong declines. In contrast, investment by large firms remains comparatively stable. The results underscore the procyclical nature of corporate debt and suggest the importance of closely monitoring firm leverage and liquidity conditions, particularly for SMEs, during periods of economic expansion and contraction.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonzálvez, Rubén & Cárdenas, Luis, 2026. "Leverage, liquidity, and investment: The cyclical effects of corporate debt," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:156:y:2026:i:c:s0264999325004523
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107457
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999325004523
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107457?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pablo Ottonello & Thomas Winberry, 2020. "Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2473-2502, November.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. Carlos Cuerpo & Inês Drumond & Julia Lendvai & Peter Pontuch & Rafal Raciborski, 2013. "Indebtedness, Deleveraging Dynamics and Macroeconomic Adjustment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 477, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra E. Todd, 1997. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(4), pages 605-654.
    5. Joel Rabinovich, 2019. "The financialization of the non‐financial corporation. A critique to the financial turn of accumulation hypothesis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 738-775, November.
    6. Alberto Abadie, 2005. "Semiparametric Difference-in-Differences Estimators," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(1), pages 1-19.
    7. Müge Adalet McGowan & Dan Andrews & Valentine Millot & Thorsten BeckManaging Editor, 2018. "The walking dead? Zombie firms and productivity performance in OECD countries," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 33(96), pages 685-736.
    8. Òscar Jordà & Martin Kornejew & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2022. "Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4561-4586.
    9. Agostino Consolo & Marco Langiulli & David Sondermann, 2019. "Business investment in euro area countries: the role of institutions and debt overhang," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(7), pages 561-575, April.
    10. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    11. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Russo, Alberto & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2010. "The financial accelerator in an evolving credit network," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1627-1650, September.
    12. Şebnem Kalemli- Özcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez & Vadym Volosovych & Sevcan Yeşiltaş, 2024. "How to Construct Nationally Representative Firm-Level Data from the Orbis Global Database: New Facts on SMEs and Aggregate Implications for Industry Concentration," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 353-374, April.
    13. Sebastian Kripfganz, 2019. "Generalized method of moments estimation of linear dynamic panel-data models," London Stata Conference 2019 17, Stata Users Group.
    14. Ignacio Hernando & Ernesto Villanueva, 2014. "The recent slowdown in bank lending in Spain: are supply-side factors relevant?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 245-285, August.
    15. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Lewis Dijkstra, 2021. "Does Cohesion Policy reduce EU discontent and Euroscepticism?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 354-369, February.
    16. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion & Candace E Jens & Stefano Rossi, 2024. "Credit Cycles, Expectations, and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(11), pages 3335-3385.
    17. Daniele Tori & Özlem Onaran, 2018. "The effects of financialization on investment: evidence from firm-level data for the UK," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(5), pages 1393-1416.
    18. Gita Gopinath & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Loukas Karabarbounis & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2017. "Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1915-1967.
    19. Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Zhao, Jun, 2020. "Doubly robust difference-in-differences estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 101-122.
    20. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2004. "Financialisation and the slowdown of accumulation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 28(5), pages 719-741, September.
    21. Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Luc Laeven & David Moreno, 2022. "Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from the European Crisis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2353-2395.
    22. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Leila E. Davis, 2017. "Financialization And Investment: A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1332-1358, December.
    23. Kiviet, Jan F., 2020. "Microeconometric dynamic panel data methods: Model specification and selection issues," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 16-45.
    24. Juan Rafael Ruiz & Oana Andreea Cristian, 2019. "The Spanish crisis from a Minskyan perspective: A new episode of financial fragility," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 416-442, July.
    25. Caiani, Alessandro & Godin, Antoine & Caverzasi, Eugenio & Gallegati, Mauro & Kinsella, Stephen & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2016. "Agent based-stock flow consistent macroeconomics: Towards a benchmark model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 375-408.
    26. Fernández de Guevara, Juan & Maudos, Joaquín & Salvador, Carlos, 2021. "Effects of the degree of financial constraint and excessive indebtedness on firms’ investment decisions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    27. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    28. Poeschl, Johannes, 2023. "Corporate debt maturity and investment over the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    29. Gebauer, Stefan & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas, 2018. "Corporate debt and investment: A firm-level analysis for stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 112-130.
    30. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    31. Durante, Elena & Ferrando, Annalisa & Vermeulen, Philip, 2022. "Monetary policy, investment and firm heterogeneity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    32. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    33. Alberto Martín & Enrique Moral-Benito & Tom Schmitz, 2021. "The Financial Transmission of Housing Booms: Evidence from Spain," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(3), pages 1013-1053, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Davis, Leila & de Souza, Joao & Kim, YK. & Rella, Giacomo, 2023. "What are firms borrowing for? The role of financial assets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    2. Hak Yeung & Jürgen Huber, 2022. "Further Evidence on China’s B&R Impact on Host Countries’ Quality of Institutions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Khémiri, Wafa & Noubbigh, Hédi, 2020. "Does sub-Saharan Africa overinvest? Evidence from a panel of non-financial firms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 118-130.
    4. Canofari, Paolo & Cucculelli, Marco & Piergallini, Alessandro & Renghini, Matteo, 2025. "Tightening monetary policy and investment dynamics in the European Monetary Union: Firm- and country-level heterogeneity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Nitin Nair, 2026. "The Effect of Corporate Cash Accumulation on Monetary Policy Transmission: A Stock-flow Consistent Growth Model," Working Papers PKWP2610, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    6. Khémiri, Wafa & Noubbigh, Hédi, 2021. "Joint analysis of the non-linear debt-growth nexus and capital account liberalization: New evidence from sub-Saharan region," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 614-626.
    7. Ricardo Barradas, 2023. "Why Has Labor Productivity Slowed Down in the Era of Financialization?: Insights from the Post-Keynesians for the European Union Countries," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 390-422, September.
    8. Fattouh, Bassam & Pisicoli, Beniamino & Scaramozzino, Pasquale, 2024. "Debt and financial fragility: Italian non-financial companies after the pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    9. Yeung, Hak & Huber, Jürgen, 2024. "Has China's belt and road initiative positively impacted the economic complexity of host countries? Empirical evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 246-258.
    10. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2026. "Estimating Causal Effects With Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(2), pages 356-382, June.
    11. Andrew Isaak & Baris Istipliler & Suleika Bort & Michael Woywode, 2025. "Regulation, Corruption, and Decentralized Autonomous Organizations: Insights from Bitcoin Trading and Platform Founding Between 2011 and 2023," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 2210-2244, November.
    12. Joel Rabinovich & Niall Reddy, 2024. "Corporate Financialization: A Conceptual Clarification and Critical Review of the Literature," Working Papers PKWP2402, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    13. Quader, Syed Manzur, 2017. "Differential effect of liquidity constraints on firm growth," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 20-29.
    14. Matjaž Volk & Polona Trefalt, 2014. "Access to Credit as a Growth Constraint," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(1), pages 29-39.
    15. Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "The effect of oil price volatility on strategic investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 79-87, January.
    16. Venkatesh, Hari & Hiremath, Gourishankar S., 2025. "Currency exposure and economic growth: Friend or foe?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    17. Mykhayliv, Dariya & Zauner, Klaus G., 2017. "The impact of equity ownership groups on investment: Evidence from Ukraine," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 20-25.
    18. Daniel Dejuán & Corinna Ghirelli, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and investment in Spain," Working Papers 1848, Banco de España.
    19. Théo Nicolas, 2019. "How Do Short-term Financial Constraints Affect SMEs Long-Term Investment: Evidence from the Working Capital Channel," Working papers 731, Banque de France.
    20. Mishra, Akanksha & Dubey, Amlendu, 2022. "Inflation targeting and its spillover effects on financial stability in emerging market economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1198-1218.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:156:y:2026:i:c:s0264999325004523. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.