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Has China's belt and road initiative positively impacted the economic complexity of host countries? Empirical evidence

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  • Yeung, Hak
  • Huber, Jürgen

Abstract

Upgrading the production capabilities in all countries is a target of the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goal 9. Increasing economic complexity, that is, a country's ability to manufacture more sophisticated products and thus moving up the value chain, is a key driver for sustainable economic growth. This paper investigates whether Chinese Belt and Road investments have impacted the economic complexity of host countries — a topic not addressed in the literature to date, using a sequential generalised method of moments model selection approach. The research focuses on the countries whose economic complexities are below that of China. Our empirical results show significant positive effects of Chinese investments on such host countries’ economic complexities. The inflows of Chinese investments have thus supported the upgrading of production capabilities in these countries. This is encouraging, especially for the Global South countries, to intensify their interactions with the Belt and Road initiative.

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  • Yeung, Hak & Huber, Jürgen, 2024. "Has China's belt and road initiative positively impacted the economic complexity of host countries? Empirical evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 246-258.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:69:y:2024:i:c:p:246-258
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2023.12.012
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Belt and road; Foreign direct investment; Economic complexity; Production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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