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When did global warming start? A new baseline for carbon budgeting

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  • Ameur, Hachmi Ben
  • Han, Xuyuan
  • Liu, Zhenya
  • Peillex, Jonathan

Abstract

The global temperatures over the period 1850–1900 are widely used by academia and policymaker as a pre-industrial baseline to assess global warming, but there remains a clear need for a statistical study. Using Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) and the Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature (HadCET) records, this study builds a stochastic disorder model to determine the pre-industrial periods for regional and global warming. We find that warming in HadCET emerged in 1866–1872 and the average HadCET has increased by 0.48 °C thereafter. Warming in BEST began in 1905–1909 and the average BEST has subsequently climbed by 0.8096 °C. The comparative analysis demonstrates that our results minimize the risk of false detection. These results will help to improve carbon budgeting and facilitate sustainable development planning.

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  • Ameur, Hachmi Ben & Han, Xuyuan & Liu, Zhenya & Peillex, Jonathan, 2022. "When did global warming start? A new baseline for carbon budgeting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:116:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322002450
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106005
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global warming; Sustainability; Structural change; Temperature; Stochastic disorder model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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