IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v116y2022ics0264999322002450.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

When did global warming start? A new baseline for carbon budgeting

Author

Listed:
  • Ameur, Hachmi Ben
  • Han, Xuyuan
  • Liu, Zhenya
  • Peillex, Jonathan

Abstract

The global temperatures over the period 1850–1900 are widely used by academia and policymaker as a pre-industrial baseline to assess global warming, but there remains a clear need for a statistical study. Using Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) and the Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature (HadCET) records, this study builds a stochastic disorder model to determine the pre-industrial periods for regional and global warming. We find that warming in HadCET emerged in 1866–1872 and the average HadCET has increased by 0.48 °C thereafter. Warming in BEST began in 1905–1909 and the average BEST has subsequently climbed by 0.8096 °C. The comparative analysis demonstrates that our results minimize the risk of false detection. These results will help to improve carbon budgeting and facilitate sustainable development planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Ameur, Hachmi Ben & Han, Xuyuan & Liu, Zhenya & Peillex, Jonathan, 2022. "When did global warming start? A new baseline for carbon budgeting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:116:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322002450
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999322002450
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Horváth, Lajos & Liu, Zhenya & Rice, Gregory & Wang, Shixuan, 2020. "Sequential monitoring for changes from stationarity to mild non-stationarity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 209-238.
    2. Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 920-937, July.
    3. Llavador, Humberto & Roemer, John E. & Silvestre, Joaquim, 2011. "“A dynamic analysis of human welfare in a warming planet”," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1607-1620.
    4. Dietz, Simon & Rising, James & Stoerk, Thomas & Wagner, Gernot, 2021. "Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111807, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Nerilie J. Abram & Helen V. McGregor & Jessica E. Tierney & Michael N. Evans & Nicholas P. McKay & Darrell S. Kaufman, 2016. "Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents," Nature, Nature, vol. 536(7617), pages 411-418, August.
    6. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2014. "Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-26.
    7. Andrew P. Schurer & Michael E. Mann & Ed Hawkins & Simon F. B. Tett & Gabriele C. Hegerl, 2017. "Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 563-567, August.
    8. Albert Shiryaev & Zuoquan Xu & Xun Yu Zhou, 2008. "Thou shalt buy and hold," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 765-776.
    9. Erickson, Gary M., 2014. "Advertising, economic development, and global warming," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 119-123.
    10. Nordhaus, William D, 1993. "Optimal Greenhouse-Gas Reductions and Tax Policy in the "Dice" Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 313-317, May.
    11. Aznar-Márquez, J. & Ruiz-Tamarit, J.R., 2016. "Environmental pollution, sustained growth, and sufficient conditions for sustainable development," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 439-449.
    12. Albert Shiryaev & Zuoquan Xu & Xun Yu Zhou, 2008. "Response to comment on 'Thou shalt buy and hold'," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 761-762.
    13. McKitrick Ross, 2010. "Atmospheric Circulations Do Not Explain the Temperature-Industrialization Correlation," Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, July.
    14. Hackl, Franz & Pruckner, Gerald J., 2003. "How global is the solution to global warming?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 93-117, January.
    15. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 198-204, May.
    16. Aue, Alexander & Horváth, Lajos, 2004. "Delay time in sequential detection of change," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 221-231, April.
    17. Peter Alaton & Boualem Djehiche & David Stillberger, 2002. "On modelling and pricing weather derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
    18. Morana, Claudio & Sbrana, Giacomo, 2019. "Climate change implications for the catastrophe bonds market: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 274-294.
    19. Richard M. Adams, 1989. "Global Climate Change and Agriculture: An Economic Perspective," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1272-1279.
    20. Dorje Brody & Joanna Syroka & Mihail Zervos, 2002. "Dynamical pricing of weather derivatives," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 189-198.
    21. Woodward, Richard T. & Bishop, Richard C., 1995. "Efficiency, sustainability and global warming," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 101-111, August.
    22. Timothy M. Lenton & Johan Rockström & Owen Gaffney & Stefan Rahmstorf & Katherine Richardson & Will Steffen & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, 2019. "Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against," Nature, Nature, vol. 575(7784), pages 592-595, November.
    23. Berkes, István & Gombay, Edit & Horváth, Lajos & Kokoszka, Piotr, 2004. "SEQUENTIAL CHANGE-POINT DETECTION IN GARCH(p,q) MODELS," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1140-1167, December.
    24. O. V. Chernoyarov & Yu. A. Kutoyants & A. Top, 2018. "On multiple change-point estimation for Poisson process," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 1215-1233, March.
    25. Frisén, Marianne, 2011. "Methods and evaluations for surveillance in industry, business, finance, and public health," Research Reports 2011:3, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    26. Chichilnisky, Graciela & Heal, Geoffrey & Beltratti, Andrea, 1995. "The Green Golden Rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 175-179, August.
    27. Gapeev, P.V. & Peskir, G., 2006. "The Wiener disorder problem with finite horizon," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 116(12), pages 1770-1791, December.
    28. Nicholas Stern, 2008. "The Economics of Climate Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 1-37, May.
    29. van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M. & Nijkamp, Peter, 1994. "Dynamic macro modelling and materials balance : Economic-environmental integration for sustainable development," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 283-307, July.
    30. George V. Moustakides & Aleksey S. Polunchenko & Alexander G. Tartakovsky, 2009. "Numerical Comparison of CUSUM and Shiryaev–Roberts Procedures for Detecting Changes in Distributions," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(16-17), pages 3225-3239, October.
    31. Marlo Brown, 2009. "Detecting Changes in a Poisson Process Monitored at Unequal Discrete Time Intervals," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(16-17), pages 2721-2732, October.
    32. Simon Dietz & James Rising & Thomas Stoerk & Gernot Wagner, 2021. "Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(34), pages 2103081118-, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Renzo Seminario-Córdova & Raúl Rojas-Ortega, 2023. "Renewable Energy Sources and Energy Production: A Bibliometric Analysis of the Last Five Years," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-22, July.
    2. Alfonso Angel Medina-Santana & Leopoldo Eduardo Cárdenas-Barrón, 2022. "Optimal Design of Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems Considering Weather Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-28, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    2. Buchholz Wolfgang & Heindl Peter, 2015. "Ökonomische Herausforderungen des Klimawandels," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 324-350, December.
    3. Hametner, Markus, 2022. "Economics without ecology: How the SDGs fail to align socioeconomic development with environmental sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    4. Torres-Brito, David Israel & Cruz-Aké, Salvador & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2023. "Impacto de los contaminantes por gases de efecto invernadero en el crecimiento económico en 86 países (1990-2019): Sobre la curva inversa de Kuznets [Impact of the Effect of Greenhouse Gas Pollutan," MPRA Paper 119031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Zhenya Liu & Yuhao Mu, 2022. "Optimal Stopping Methods for Investment Decisions: A Literature Review," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, October.
    6. Arbex, Marcelo & Batu, Michael, 2020. "What if people value nature? Climate change and welfare costs," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Duan, Hongbo & Yuan, Deyu & Cai, Zongwu & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "Valuing the impact of climate change on China’s economic growth," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 155-174.
    8. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    9. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    10. Simon Dietz & Nicholas Stern, 2014. "Endogenous growth, convexity of damages and climate risk: how Nordhaus� framework supports deep cuts in carbon emissions," GRI Working Papers 159, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    11. Nguyen, Cuong Viet & Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Nguyen, Toan Truong, 2022. "Climate Change, Cold Waves, Heat Waves, and Mortality: Evidence from a Lower Middle-Income Country," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1034, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    12. Tarsia, Romano, 2024. "Heterogeneous effects of weather shocks on firm economic performance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124251, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. W. Botzen & Jeroen Bergh, 2014. "Specifications of Social Welfare in Economic Studies of Climate Policy: Overview of Criteria and Related Policy Insights," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(1), pages 1-33, May.
    14. Ralph Hippe, 2015. "Why did the knowledge transition occur in the West and not in the East? ICT and the role of governments in Europe, East Asia and the Muslim world," GRI Working Papers 180, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    15. Chen, Fanglin & Zhang, Xin & Chen, Zhongfei, 2023. "Behind climate change: Extreme heat and health cost," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 101-110.
    16. Patton, Douglas & Bergstrom, John C. & Moore, Rebecca & Covich, Alan P., 2015. "Economic value of carbon storage in U.S. National Wildlife Refuge wetland ecosystems," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 94-104.
    17. Hee Soo (test record) Kim & Christian Matthes & Toan Phan, 2011. "Extreme Weather and the Macroeconomy," Working Paper 21-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    18. Nicholas Apergis & Alexandros Gabrielsen & Lee Smales, 2016. "(Unusual) weather and stock returns—I am not in the mood for mood: further evidence from international markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(1), pages 63-94, February.
    19. Luca Gerotto & Paolo Pellizzari, 2021. "A replication of Pindyck’s willingness to pay: on the efforts required to obtain results," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(5), pages 1-25, May.
    20. Samuel Asante Gyamerah & Philip Ngare & Dennis Ikpe, 2018. "Regime-Switching Temperature Dynamics Model for Weather Derivatives," International Journal of Stochastic Analysis, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-15, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global warming; Sustainability; Structural change; Temperature; Stochastic disorder model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:116:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322002450. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.