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Post COVID‐19 exit strategies and emerging markets economic challenges

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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Hiro Ito

Abstract

We study emerging markets' 1980s lost growth decade, triggered by the massive reversal of the snowball effect in the US during 1974–1984, finding that higher flow costs of servicing debt overhang explain the dramatic decline in growth rates of exposed emerging markets. We also show how lowering the US cost of servicing its public debt has been associated with higher US, Japan, and Western Europe real output growth rates during the post WWII recovery decades, 1946–1956, and validate that fiscal adjustments of large countries have strong growth and volatility spillovers effects on exposed emerging markets and developing countries.

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  • Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2023. "Post COVID‐19 exit strategies and emerging markets economic challenges," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 1-34, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:31:y:2023:i:1:p:1-34
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12608
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    Cited by:

    1. Das, Piyali & Ghate, Chetan, 2022. "Debt decomposition and the role of inflation: A security level analysis for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Umar, Zaghum & Manel, Youssef & Riaz, Yasir & Gubareva, Mariya, 2021. "Return and volatility transmission between emerging markets and US debt throughout the pandemic crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Oussama Abi Younes & Sumru Altug, 2021. "The COVID-19 Shock: A Bayesian Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-15, October.
    4. M. P. Afanas’ev & N. N. Shash, 2021. "From Surplus to Deficit Fiscal Policy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 476-484, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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