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Public debt dynamics with tax revenue constraints

Author

Listed:
  • Fabrizio Casalin

    (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Enzo Dia
  • Andrew Hughes Hallett

Abstract

We develop a dynamic model of public debt under the assumption that it is problematic for governments to implement fast increases of tax revenues, as new taxes require costly infrastructure and expertise that can be built only over time. In this environment, the standard condition requiring economic growth greater than interest costs is not sufficient to guarantee financial stability. Debt might become unstable if the gap between these two indicators falls below a given threshold. Our empirical analysis based on historical public finance data for the US provides strong support for the model. This study conveys a cautionary warning, because the debt of relatively safe borrowers may suddenly become unstable for instance because of a substantial deceleration in the growth of nominal income. These issues can be particularly relevant for those countries that do not have a modern and efficient tax collection system.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrizio Casalin & Enzo Dia & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2019. "Public debt dynamics with tax revenue constraints," Post-Print hal-02504131, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02504131
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.11.035
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    Cited by:

    1. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Tax reform and public debt instability in developing countries: The trade openness and public revenue instability channels," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 54-67.
    2. Casalin, Fabrizio & Cerniglia, Floriana & Dia, Enzo, 2023. "Stock-flow adjustments, public debt management and interest costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Fabrizio Casalin & Floriana Cerniglia & Enzo Dia, 2021. "Stock-flow adjustments and interest costs in public debt dynamics," CRANEC - Working Papers del Centro di Ricerche in Analisi economica e sviluppo economico internazionale crn2102, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Centro di Ricerche in Analisi economica e sviluppo economico internazionale (CRANEC).
    4. M. Brachetta & C. Ceci, 2022. "A stochastic control approach to public debt management," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 16, number 5, June.
    5. Olegs Tkacevs & Karsten Staehr, 2025. "The effects of macroeconomic and budget balance shocks on public debt trajectories in the Euro area," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2025-08, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Dec 2025.
    6. Yung‐ho Chiu & Kuei‐Ying Huang & Tai‐Yu Lin & Tzu‐Han Chang, 2022. "Government debt and fiscal execution efficiency," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 111-128, January.
    7. Virtue U. Ekhosuehi, 2021. "Optimal control of external debt for a developing economy," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 58(4), pages 889-905, December.
    8. Matteo Brachetta & Claudia Ceci, 2021. "A Stochastic Control Approach to Public Debt Management," Papers 2107.10491, arXiv.org.
    9. Osband, Kent & Filoso, Valerio & Capasso, Salvatore, 2024. "The limits of limitless debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Law, Siong Hook & Ng, Chee Hung & Kutan, Ali M. & Law, Zhi Kei, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth in developing countries: Nonlinearity and threshold analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 26-40.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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