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The Hazard Rate of Foreign Direct Investment: A Structural Estimation of a Real-option Model

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  • Enrico Pennings
  • Carlo Altomonte

Abstract

The hazard rate of investment is derived within a real-option model, and its properties are analysed so as to directly study the relation between uncertainty and investment. Maximum likelihood estimates of the hazard are calculated using a sample of multinational enterprises (MNEs) that invested in Central and Eastern Europe over the period 1990-98. Employing a standard, non-parametric specification of the hazard, our measure of uncertainty has a negative effect on investment, but the reduced-form model is unable to control for nonlinearities in the relationship. The structural estimation of the option-based hazard is instead able to account for the nonlinearities and exhibits a significant value of waiting, although the latter is independent of our measure of uncertainty. This finding supports the existence of alternative channels through which uncertainty can affect investment. Copyright 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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  • Enrico Pennings & Carlo Altomonte, 2006. "The Hazard Rate of Foreign Direct Investment: A Structural Estimation of a Real-option Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 569-593, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:68:y:2006:i:5:p:569-593
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    1. repec:msm:wpaper:2014/23 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. George Dikos & Dimitrios Thomakos, 2012. "Econometric testing of the real option hypothesis: evidence from investment in oil tankers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 121-145, February.
    3. Shauna Phillips & Fredoun Z. Ahmadi-Esfahani, 2008. "Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: theoretical models and empirical evidence ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(4), pages 505-525, December.
    4. Altomonte, Carlo & Pennings, Enrico, 2008. "Learning from foreign investment by rival firms: Theory and evidence," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1203-1217, September.
    5. Phillips, Shauna & Ahmadi-Esfahani, Fredoun Z., . "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: Theoretical Models and Empirical Evidence," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    6. Swinnen, Johan F.M. & Vercammen, James, 2006. "Uncertainty and Specific Investment with Weak Contract Enforcement," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21044, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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