IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jconsa/v54y2020i4p1195-1212.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

From wheel of fortune to wheel of misfortune: Financial crises, cycles, and consumer predation

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Mesly
  • David W. Shanafelt
  • Nicolas Huck
  • François‐Éric Racicot

Abstract

Predator–prey dynamics are widely used in ecology but seldom utilized in economics and marketing, despite their ability to express financial market agents' behaviors when considered in combination with economic cycles and financial crises. This multidisciplinary article presents a stylized framework of a market cycle that combines the notions of supply and demand and predator–prey interactions between buyers and sellers of housing mortgages. We illustrate our framework using data from the Global Financial Crisis and a Lotka‐Volterra predator–prey model. We find that with our framework we can capture the dynamics of the market, particularly the peak and decline in the number of sellers and sold subprime mortgages. Our framework sheds a new light on consumer behaviors, pinpointing how they can put themselves into vulnerable prey positions. This article is one of the first of its kind to propose market phases and predator–prey dynamics nested in economic cycles and consumer buying trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Mesly & David W. Shanafelt & Nicolas Huck & François‐Éric Racicot, 2020. "From wheel of fortune to wheel of misfortune: Financial crises, cycles, and consumer predation," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 1195-1212, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jconsa:v:54:y:2020:i:4:p:1195-1212
    DOI: 10.1111/joca.12326
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/joca.12326
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/joca.12326?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dee Warmath & David Zimmerman, 2019. "Financial Literacy as More than Knowledge: The Development of a Formative Scale through the Lens of Bloom's Domains of Knowledge," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 1602-1629, December.
    2. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2012. "Tranching, CDS, and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 190-225, January.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
    4. Hyman P. Minsky, 1980. "Capitalist Financial Processes and the Instability of Capitalism," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 505-523, June.
    5. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    6. L. J. Shrum & Tina M. Lowrey & Mario Pandalaere & Ayalla Ruvio & Elodie Gentina & Pia Furcheim & Maud Herbert & Liselot Hudders & Inge Lens & Naomi Mandel & Agnès Nairn & Adriana Samper & Isabella Sos, 2014. "Materialism : The good, the bad and the ugly," Post-Print hal-02313216, HAL.
    7. Kyoung Tae Kim & Jonghee Lee & Sherman D. Hanna, 2020. "The Effects of Financial Literacy Overconfidence on the Mortgage Delinquency of US Households," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 517-540, June.
    8. Itzhak Ben-David, 2011. "Financial Constraints and Inflated Home Prices during the Real Estate Boom," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 55-87, July.
    9. Soon Ryoo & Peter Skott, 2008. "Financialization in Kaleckian Economies with and without Labor Constraints," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 357-386.
    10. Gul, Faruk & Stacchetti, Ennio, 1999. "Walrasian Equilibrium with Gross Substitutes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 95-124, July.
    11. Dopfer,Kurt (ed.), 2005. "The Evolutionary Foundations of Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521621991, October.
    12. Aghion, Philippe & Akcigit, Ufuk & Howitt, Peter, 2014. "What Do We Learn From Schumpeterian Growth Theory?," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 515-563, Elsevier.
    13. Ping Chen, 2014. "Erratum to: Metabolic growth theory: market-share competition, learning uncertainty, and technology wavelets," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 263-264, April.
    14. Mesly, Olivier & Chkir, Imed & Racicot, François-Éric, 2019. "Predatory cells and puzzling financial crises: Are toxic products good for the financial markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 11-31.
    15. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael U. & Laubach, Thomas, 2012. "Trend growth expectations and U.S. house prices before and after the crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 394-409.
    16. Gilles Laurent & Carolyn Yoon & Helene H. Fung & Richard Gonzalez & Angela H. Gutchess & Trey Hedden & Raphaelle Lambert-Pandraud & Mara Mather & Denise C. Park & Ellen Peters & Ian Skurnik, 2005. "Cognition, Persuasion and Decision Making in Older Consumers," Post-Print hal-00818685, HAL.
    17. Fenghua Song & AnjanV. Thakor, 2010. "Financial System Architecture and the Co-evolution of Banks and Capital Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(547), pages 1021-1055, September.
    18. Jan Ditzen, 2018. "Cross-country convergence in a general Lotka–Volterra model," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 191-211, April.
    19. Ruth Aguilera & Abhijeet Vadera, 2008. "The Dark Side of Authority: Antecedents, Mechanisms, and Outcomes of Organizational Corruption," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 77(4), pages 431-449, February.
    20. Ping Chen, 2014. "Metabolic growth theory: market-share competition, learning uncertainty, and technology wavelets," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 239-262, April.
    21. Danis, Michelle A. & Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2008. "The delinquency of subprime mortgages," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 67-90.
    22. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2012. "Causes of banking crises: Deregulation, credit booms and asset bubbles, then and now," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 270-294.
    23. Umit G. Gurun & Gregor Matvos & Amit Seru, 2016. "Advertising Expensive Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2371-2416, October.
    24. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    25. Thomas Grjebine & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Finance, crises et croissance," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(3), pages 121-134.
    26. John Henry, 2012. "The Veblenian Predator and Financial Crises: Money, Fraud, and a World of Illusion," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 989-1006.
    27. Elvin K Wyly & Mona Atia & Elizabeth Lee & Pablo Mendez, 2007. "Race, Gender, and Statistical Representation: Predatory Mortgage Lending and the US Community Reinvestment Movement," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 39(9), pages 2139-2166, September.
    28. Eckhard Hein, 2012. "The Macroeconomics of Finance-Dominated Capitalism – and its Crisis," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14931.
    29. Carolyn Yoon & Gilles Laurent & Helene Fung & Richard Gonzalez & Angela Gutchess & Trey Hedden & Raphaëlle Lambert-Pandraud & Mara Mather & Denise Park & Ellen Peters & Ian Skurnik, 2005. "Cognition, Persuasion and Decision Making in Older Consumers," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 429-441, December.
    30. Alina Sorescu & Sorin M. Sorescu & Will J. Armstrong & Bart Devoldere, 2018. "Two Centuries of Innovations and Stock Market Bubbles," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(4), pages 507-529, August.
    31. Yongjing Zhang, 2012. "A Lotka--Volterra evolutionary model of China's incremental institutional reform," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 367-371, March.
    32. William R. White, 2009. "Should monetary policy \"lean or clean\"?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 34, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    33. Gavin Nicholson & Ross Skelton & Julie‐Anne Tarr, 2019. "An Exploratory Study of Regulatory Failure in the Australian Home Mortgage Market," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 126-166, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Mesly & Hareesh Mavoori & Nicolas Huck, 2023. "The Role of Financial Spinning, Learning, and Predation in Market Failure," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(1), pages 517-543, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olivier Mesly & Hareesh Mavoori & Nicolas Huck, 2023. "The Role of Financial Spinning, Learning, and Predation in Market Failure," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(1), pages 517-543, March.
    2. Olivier Mesly & David W. Shanafelt & Nicolas Huck, 2021. "Dysfunctional Markets: A Spray of Prey Perspective," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(3), pages 797-819, July.
    3. Huck, Nicolas & Mavoori, Hareesh & Mesly, Olivier, 2020. "The rationality of irrationality in times of financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 337-350.
    4. Mesly, Olivier & Chkir, Imed & Racicot, François-Éric, 2019. "Predatory cells and puzzling financial crises: Are toxic products good for the financial markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 11-31.
    5. Charlotte Gaston-Breton & Priya Raghubir, 2013. "Opposing effects of sociodemographic variables on price knowledge," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 29-42, March.
    6. Karlis, Alexandros & Galanis, Girogos & Terovitis, Spyridon & Turner, Matthew, 2017. "Heterogeneity and Clustering of Defaults," Economic Research Papers 270011, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    7. Sebastiaan Pool, 2018. "Mortgage debt and shadow banks," DNB Working Papers 588, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. Ms. Anna Scherbina, 2013. "Asset Price Bubbles: A Selective Survey," IMF Working Papers 2013/045, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2019. "Credit Supply and the Housing Boom," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1317-1350.
    10. Kurt Dopfer & Jason Potts & Andreas Pyka, 2017. "Upward and Downward Complementarity: The Meso Core of Evolutionary Growth Theory," Economic Complexity and Evolution, in: Andreas Pyka & Uwe Cantner (ed.), Foundations of Economic Change, pages 69-80, Springer.
    11. Ambrose, Brent W. & Diop, Moussa, 2014. "Spillover effects of subprime mortgage originations: The effects of single-family mortgage credit expansion on the multifamily rental market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 114-135.
    12. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Robert Guttmann, 2015. "The heterodox notion of structural crisis," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 194-212, April.
    14. Pino, Giovanni & Amatulli, Cesare & Nataraajan, Rajan & De Angelis, Matteo & Peluso, Alessandro M. & Guido, Gianluigi, 2020. "Product touch in the real and digital world: How do consumers react?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 492-501.
    15. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    16. Alan Xiaochen Feng, 2018. "Bank Competition, Risk Taking, and their Consequences: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage and Labor Markets," IMF Working Papers 2018/157, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Soon Ryoo, 2018. "Top income shares and aggregate wealth-income ratio in a two-class corporate economy [Growth and distribution in heterodox models with managers and financiers]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 699-728.
    18. Lynn Gregory, 2014. "Fundraising and the Elderly: A Content Analysis," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 5-25, March.
    19. J. E. King, 2013. "A Brief Introduction to Post Keynesian Macroeconomics," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 39(4), pages 485-508.
    20. Eckhard Hein, 2012. "The Macroeconomics of Finance-Dominated Capitalism – and its Crisis," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14931.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • P46 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Consumer Economics; Health; Education and Training; Welfare, Income, Wealth, and Poverty
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jconsa:v:54:y:2020:i:4:p:1195-1212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-0078 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.