IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v112y2022i7p2139-77.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Productivity Shocks, Long-Term Contracts, and Earnings Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Neele Balke
  • Thibaut Lamadon

Abstract

This paper examines how employer- and worker-specific productivity shocks transmit to earnings and employment. We develop an equilibrium search model and characterize the optimal contract offered by firms. Risk-neutral firms provide partial insurance against shocks to risk-averse workers and offer contingent contracts, where payments are backloaded in good times and frontloaded in bad times. The model is estimated on matched employer-employee data from Sweden. Firms absorb persistent worker and firm shocks, with respective passthrough values of 26 and 10 percent. We evaluate the effects of redistributive policies and find that 30 percent of government insurance is undone by crowding out firm insurance.

Suggested Citation

  • Neele Balke & Thibaut Lamadon, 2022. "Productivity Shocks, Long-Term Contracts, and Earnings Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2139-2177, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:112:y:2022:i:7:p:2139-77
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20161622
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.20161622
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.20161622.appx
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.20161622.ds
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/aer.20161622?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Menzio, Guido & Shi, Shouyong, 2010. "Block recursive equilibria for stochastic models of search on the job," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(4), pages 1453-1494, July.
    2. Benveniste, L M & Scheinkman, J A, 1979. "On the Differentiability of the Value Function in Dynamic Models of Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 727-732, May.
    3. Benjamin Friedrich & Costas Meghir & Lisa Laun & Luigi Pistaferri, 2018. "Earnings Dynamics and Firm-Level Shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 536, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Shouyong Shi, 2009. "Directed Search for Equilibrium Wage-Tenure Contracts," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 561-584, March.
    5. Koeppl Thorsten V., 2006. "Differentiability of the Efficient Frontier when Commitment to Risk Sharing is Limited," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-6, April.
    6. Sundaram,Rangarajan K., 1996. "A First Course in Optimization Theory," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521497190.
    7. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, 1993. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 497-529.
    8. Peter Fredriksson & Robert H. Topel, 2010. "Wage Determination and Employment in Sweden Since the Early 1990s: Wage Formation in a New Setting," NBER Chapters, in: Reforming the Welfare State: Recovery and Beyond in Sweden, pages 83-126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Isaiah Andrews & Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2017. "Measuring the Sensitivity of Parameter Estimates to Estimation Moments," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1553-1592.
    10. Sundaram,Rangarajan K., 1996. "A First Course in Optimization Theory," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521497701.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Francesco Manaresi & Omar Rachedi & Emircan Yurdagul, 2022. "Minimum Wages and Insurance Within the Firm," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2022_326v3, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    2. Magnac, Thierry, 2023. "Capital humain et recherche d'emploi: un mariage heureux - Human Capital and Search Models: A Happy Match," TSE Working Papers 23-1489, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    3. Mingyong Hong & Jiao Long & Wenjun Zhuo, 2023. "Clan Networks, Spatial Selection, and Farmland Transfer Contracts: Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Rasmus Lentz & Nicolas Roys, 2024. "Training and Search On the Job," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 53, pages 123-146, July.
    5. Krueger, Dirk & Uhlig, Harald, 2022. "Neoclassical Growth with Long-Term One-Sided Commitment Contracts," CEPR Discussion Papers 17757, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Rasmus Lentz & Nicolas Roys, 2024. "Training and Search On the Job," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 53, pages 123-146, July.
    7. Fahn, Matthias & MacLeod, W. Bentley & Muehlheusser, Gerd, 2023. "Past and Future Developments in the Economics of Relational Contracts," IZA Discussion Papers 16427, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Dirk Krueger & Harald Uhlig, 2024. "Neoclassical Growth with Limited Commitment," PIER Working Paper Archive 22-023, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Neele Balke & Thibaut Lamadon, 2020. "Productivity Shocks, Long-Term Contracts and Earnings Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 28060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Balke, Neele & Lamadon, Thibaut, 2021. "Productivity shocks, long-term contracts and earnings dynamics," Working Paper Series 2021:19, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    3. Menzio, Guido & Shi, Shouyong & Sun, Hongfei, 2013. "A monetary theory with non-degenerate distributions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2266-2312.
    4. John Stachurski, 2009. "Economic Dynamics: Theory and Computation," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012774, December.
    5. Matthew A. Masten & Alexandre Poirier, 2021. "Salvaging Falsified Instrumental Variable Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1449-1469, May.
    6. Brett, Craig & Weymark, John A., 2016. "Voting over selfishly optimal nonlinear income tax schedules with a minimum-utility constraint," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 18-31.
    7. Gonzalez, Stéphane & Rostom, Fatma Zahra, 2022. "Sharing the global outcomes of finite natural resource exploitation: A dynamic coalitional stability perspective," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-10.
    8. Vits, Jeroen & Gelders, Ludo & Pintelon, Liliane, 2006. "Production process changes: A dynamic programming approach to manage effective capacity and experience," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 473-481, December.
    9. Rasch, Alexander & Wambach, Achim, 2009. "Internal decision-making rules and collusion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 703-715, November.
    10. Sawada, Hiroyuki & Yan, Xiu-Tian, 2004. "Application of Gröbner bases and quantifier elimination for insightful engineering design," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 135-148.
    11. Pierre Dubois & Bruno Jullien & Thierry Magnac, 2008. "Formal and Informal Risk Sharing in LDCs: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(4), pages 679-725, July.
    12. Beltran-Royo, C. & Zhang, H. & Blanco, L.A. & Almagro, J., 2013. "Multistage multiproduct advertising budgeting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 179-188.
    13. Gilboa, Itzhak & Postlewaite, Andrew & Samuelson, Larry, 2016. "Memorable consumption," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 414-455.
    14. John Duggan & Joanne Roberts, 2002. "Implementing the Efficient Allocation of Pollution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1070-1078, September.
    15. Mangin, Sephorah, 2017. "A theory of production, matching, and distribution," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 376-409.
    16. Eleftherios Filippiadis & Anastasia Litina, 2022. "A dynamic analysis of the income–pollution relationship in a two-country setting," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 775-801, May.
    17. Rabinovich, Stanislav & Wolthoff, Ronald, 2022. "Misallocation inefficiency in partially directed search," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    18. Raffaella Giacomini & Toru Kitagawa, 2021. "Robust Bayesian Inference for Set‐Identified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1519-1556, July.
    19. Depetris Chauvin, Nicolas & Porto, Guido G., 2011. "Market Competition in Export Cash Crops and Farm Income," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126159, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Leo Kaas & Philipp Kircher, 2015. "Efficient Firm Dynamics in a Frictional Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3030-3060, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D86 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Economics of Contract Law
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:112:y:2022:i:7:p:2139-77. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.