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Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask, , , , , , , ,

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz, 2011. "Financial forecasts during the crisis: Were experts more accurate than laypeople?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 384-390, June.
  2. Gilles Hilary & Lior Menzly, 2006. "Does Past Success Lead Analysts to Become Overconfident?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 489-500, April.
  3. repec:cup:judgdm:v:14:y:2019:i:4:p:395-411 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. repec:cup:judgdm:v:8:y:2013:i:3:p:330-344 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Daniela Grieco & Robin Hogarth, 2004. "Excess entry, ambiguity seeking and competence: An experimental investigation," Economics Working Papers 778, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  6. Viktorija Ilieva & Thomas Brudermann & Ljubomir Drakulevski, 2018. "“Yes, we know!” (Over)confidence in general knowledge among Austrian entrepreneurs," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-15, May.
  7. repec:cup:judgdm:v:12:y:2017:i:1:p:29-41 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Acker, Daniella & Duck, Nigel W., 2008. "Cross-cultural overconfidence and biased self-attribution," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1815-1824, October.
  9. David Tannenbaum & Craig R. Fox & Gülden Ülkümen, 2017. "Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 497-518, February.
  10. Thunström, Linda & Nordström, Jonas & Shogren, Jason F., 2015. "Certainty and overconfidence in future preferences for food," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 101-113.
  11. Craig R. Fox & Robert T. Clemen, 2005. "Subjective Probability Assessment in Decision Analysis: Partition Dependence and Bias Toward the Ignorance Prior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(9), pages 1417-1432, September.
  12. Daniel Fonseca Costa & Francisval Carvalho & Bruno César Moreira & José Willer Prado, 2017. "Bibliometric analysis on the association between behavioral finance and decision making with cognitive biases such as overconfidence, anchoring effect and confirmation bias," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(3), pages 1775-1799, June.
  13. Juliette Rouchier & Emily Tanimura, 2012. "When overconfident agents slow down collective learning," Post-Print hal-00623966, HAL.
  14. Maurizio Zollo, 2009. "Superstitious Learning with Rare Strategic Decisions: Theory and Evidence from Corporate Acquisitions," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(5), pages 894-908, October.
  15. Robert Litchfield & Jinyan Fan, 2007. "Sequential and simultaneous multiple explanation: Implications for alternative consideration when response options are not provided," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 2, pages 54-69, February.
  16. Chen, Clara Xiaoling & Rennekamp, Kristina M. & Zhou, Flora H., 2015. "The effects of forecast type and performance-based incentives on the quality of management forecasts," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 8-18.
  17. Itzhak Ben-David & John R. Graham, 2013. "Managerial Miscalibration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1547-1584.
  18. Ferretti, Valentina & Guney, Sule & Montibeller, Gilberto & Winterfeldt, Detlof von, 2016. "Testing best practices to reduce the overconfidence bias in multi-criteria decision analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67179, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  19. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2020. "Investment in Financial Information and Portfolio Performance," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(348), pages 1133-1170, October.
  20. Sautner, Zacharias & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Stock Options and Employee Behavior," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-26, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  21. Stevo Pavićević & Thomas Keil, 2021. "The role of procedural rationality in debiasing acquisition decisions of overconfident CEOs," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(9), pages 1696-1715, September.
  22. Du, Ning & Budescu, David V., 2007. "Does past volatility affect investors' price forecasts and confidence judgements?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 497-511.
  23. Larrick, Richard P. & Burson, Katherine A. & Soll, Jack B., 2007. "Social comparison and confidence: When thinking you're better than average predicts overconfidence (and when it does not)," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 76-94, January.
  24. Merkle, Christoph & Weber, Martin, 2011. "True overconfidence: The inability of rational information processing to account for apparent overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 262-271.
  25. Olsson, Henrik, 2014. "Measuring overconfidence: Methodological problems and statistical artifacts," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(8), pages 1766-1770.
  26. Aukutsionek, Sergei P. & Belianin, Alexis V., 2001. "Quality of forecasts and business performance: A survey study of Russian managers," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 661-692, October.
  27. Pirinsky, Christo, 2013. "Confidence and economic attitudes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 139-158.
  28. Robin M. Hogarth & Natalia Karelaia, 2012. "Entrepreneurial Success and Failure: Confidence and Fallible Judgment," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(6), pages 1733-1747, December.
  29. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Development of the overconfidence measurement instrument for the economic experiment," MPRA Paper 26384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  30. Simon, Mark & Shrader, Rodney C., 2012. "Entrepreneurial actions and optimistic overconfidence: The role of motivated reasoning in new product introductions," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 291-309.
  31. Marie-pierre Dargnies & Guillaume Hollard, 2009. "Incentives to learn calibration: a gender-dependent impact," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1820-1828.
  32. Cesarini, David & Sandewall, Orjan & Johannesson, Magnus, 2006. "Confidence interval estimation tasks and the economics of overconfidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 453-470, November.
  33. Julia R. Falconer & Eibe Frank & Devon L. L. Polaschek & Chaitanya Joshi, 2022. "Methods for Eliciting Informative Prior Distributions: A Critical Review," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 19(3), pages 189-204, September.
  34. Glaser, Markus & Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Overconfidence of professionals and lay men : individual differences within and between tasks?," Papers 05-25, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
  35. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2013. "Overconfidence, experience, and professionalism: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 92-101.
  36. Ludwig, Sandra & Fellner-Röhling, Gerlinde & Thoma, Carmen, 2017. "Do women have more shame than men? An experiment on self-assessment and the shame of overestimating oneself," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 31-46.
  37. David Tannenbaum & Craig R. Fox & Gülden Ülkümen, 2017. "Judgment Extremity and Accuracy Under Epistemic vs. Aleatory Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 497-518, February.
  38. Michael D. Grubb, 2015. "Overconfident Consumers in the Marketplace," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 9-36, Fall.
  39. See, Kelly E. & Morrison, Elizabeth W. & Rothman, Naomi B. & Soll, Jack B., 2011. "The detrimental effects of power on confidence, advice taking, and accuracy," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 272-285.
  40. Herz, Holger & Schunk, Daniel & Zehnder, Christian, 2014. "How do judgmental overconfidence and overoptimism shape innovative activity?," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-23.
  41. O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William & Griggs, Kenneth, 2001. "The asymmetry of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 623-633.
  42. Robin Hogarth & Mariona Portell & Anna Cuxart, 2007. "What risks do people perceive in everyday life? A perspective gained from the experience sampling method (ESM)," Economics Working Papers 1005, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  43. David V. Budescu & Ning Du, 2007. "Coherence and Consistency of Investors' Probability Judgments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(11), pages 1731-1744, November.
  44. Paulina Granados Zambrano, 2012. "I Prefer Not to Know! Analyzing the Decision of Getting Information about your Ability," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/04, European University Institute.
  45. Marian Krajc, 2008. "Are the Unskilled Really That Unaware? Understanding Seemingly Biased Self-Assessments," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp373, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  46. Gerhard van de Venter & David Michayluk, 2008. "An Insight into Overconfidence in the Forecasting Abilities of Financial Advisors," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 32(3), pages 545-557, March.
  47. repec:cup:judgdm:v:15:y:2020:i:6:p:994-1008 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. Bruno Biais & Martin Weber, 2009. "Hindsight Bias, Risk Perception, and Investment Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(6), pages 1018-1029, June.
  49. Irene Scopelliti & Carey K. Morewedge & Erin McCormick & H. Lauren Min & Sophie Lebrecht & Karim S. Kassam, 2015. "Bias Blind Spot: Structure, Measurement, and Consequences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(10), pages 2468-2486, October.
  50. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Overconfidence and bubbles in experimental asset markets," MPRA Paper 26388, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  51. Kraft, Priscilla S. & Günther, Christina & Kammerlander, Nadine H. & Lampe, Jan, 2022. "Overconfidence and entrepreneurship: A meta-analysis of different types of overconfidence in the entrepreneurial process," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 37(4).
  52. Glaser, Markus & Nöth, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Behavioral finance," Papers 03-14, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
  53. Ali E. Abbas & David V. Budescu & Hsiu-Ting Yu & Ryan Haggerty, 2008. "A Comparison of Two Probability Encoding Methods: Fixed Probability vs. Fixed Variable Values," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 190-202, December.
  54. Jordan Tong & Daniel Feiler, 2017. "A Behavioral Model of Forecasting: Naive Statistics on Mental Samples," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3609-3627, November.
  55. Yin, Xile & Li, Jianbiao & Bao, Te, 2019. "Does overconfidence promote cooperation? Theory and experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 119-133.
  56. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2006. "Information Acquisition and Portfolio Performance," CeRP Working Papers 52, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
  57. repec:cup:judgdm:v:2:y:2007:i::p:54-69 is not listed on IDEAS
  58. Huascar Pessali, 2011. "Public Policy Design in Developing Societies," Journal of Developing Societies, , vol. 27(1), pages 11-28, March.
  59. Yiuman Tse & Lin Zhao, 2011. "The Relationship between Currency Carry Trades and U.S. Stocks The article examines the relationship between daily returns of currency carry trades and U.S. stocks from January 1995 through September ," Working Papers 0005, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
  60. Markus Glaser & Thomas Langer & Martin Weber, 2007. "On the Trend Recognition and Forecasting Ability of Professional Traders," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 176-193, December.
  61. David Hirshleifer & Angie Low & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1457-1498, August.
  62. Sivakumar, Senthilkumar, 2022. "A novel Integrated Risk Management Method for Airport operations," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  63. Bruno Biais & Denis Hilton & Karine Mazurier & Sébastien Pouget, 2000. "Psychological Traits and Trading Strategies," CSEF Working Papers 39, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  64. Luke F. Rinne & Michele M. M. Mazzocco, 2013. "Inferring uncertainty from interval estimates: Effects of alpha level and numeracy," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(3), pages 330-344, May.
  65. Jared Allen & Regan Stevenson & Tang Wang, 2021. "Creative and resourceful: How human, social, and psychological resources affect creative workers’ ability to rebound after failure," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 705-719, August.
  66. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
  67. Haran, Uriel & Mazar, Asaf & Hurwitz, Mordechai & Moran, Simone, 2022. "Confidently at your service: Advisors alter their stated confidence to be helpful," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
  68. Gudmundsson, Sveinn Vidar & Lechner, Christian, 2013. "Cognitive biases, organization, and entrepreneurial firm survival," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 278-294.
  69. Marc Oliver Rieger & Mei Wang & Daniel Hausmann, 2020. "Pre-Decisional Information Acquisition: Do We Pay TooMuch for Information?," Working Paper Series 2020-02, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
  70. Kaplan, Steven N. & Sørensen, Morten & Zakolyukina, Anastasia A., 2022. "What is CEO overconfidence? Evidence from executive assessments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 409-425.
  71. Juliette Rouchier & Emily Tanimura, 2012. "When overconfident agents slow down collective learning," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00623966, HAL.
  72. Bruno Biais & Denis Hilton & Karine Mazurier & Sébastien Pouget, 2005. "Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(2), pages 287-312.
  73. Danková, Katarína & Servátka, Maroš, 2019. "Gender robustness of overconfidence and excess entry," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 179-199.
  74. Hilary, Gilles & Hsu, Charles, 2011. "Endogenous overconfidence in managerial forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 300-313, April.
  75. Don A. Moore & Samuel A. Swift & Angela Minster & Barbara Mellers & Lyle Ungar & Philip Tetlock & Heather H. J. Yang & Elizabeth R. Tenney, 2017. "Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3552-3565, November.
  76. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Development of the overconfidence measurement instrument for the economic experiment," MPRA Paper 26384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  77. Winkler, Jens & Moser, Roger, 2016. "Biases in future-oriented Delphi studies: A cognitive perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 63-76.
  78. Theresa Michl & Stefan Taing, 2010. "An Economic and Neuroscientific Comparison of Strategic Decision-making," Chapters, in: Angela A. Stanton & Mellani Day & Isabell M. Welpe (ed.), Neuroeconomics and the Firm, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  79. Soll, Jack B. & Mannes, Albert E., 2011. "Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 81-102.
  80. Kris Hardies & Diane Breesch & Joël Branson, 2011. "Male and female auditors' overconfidence," Managerial Auditing Journal, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 105-118, November.
  81. Jiatao Li & Yi Tang, 2013. "The Social Influence of Executive Hubris," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 83-107, February.
  82. Lambert, Jérôme & Bessière, Véronique & N’Goala, Gilles, 2012. "Does expertise influence the impact of overconfidence on judgment, valuation and investment decision?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1115-1128.
  83. Gilberto Montibeller & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2015. "Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1230-1251, July.
  84. Christoph Gort & Mei Wang, 2010. "Overconfidence and Active Management," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  85. Ying Han & David Budescu, 2019. "A universal method for evaluating the quality of aggregators," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 14(4), pages 395-411, July.
  86. Grieco, Daniela & Hogarth, Robin M., 2009. "Overconfidence in absolute and relative performance: The regression hypothesis and Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 756-771, October.
  87. Bonaccio, Silvia & Dalal, Reeshad S., 2006. "Advice taking and decision-making: An integrative literature review, and implications for the organizational sciences," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 127-151, November.
  88. Marina Psiloutsikou, 2016. "The added value of coaching compared to a friendly discussion: Insight from behavioral economics," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 9(2), pages 47-58, June.
  89. Fellner, Gerlinde & Krügel, Sebastian, 2012. "Judgmental overconfidence: Three measures, one bias?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 142-154.
  90. Wallsten, Thomas S. & Gu, Hongbin, 2003. "Distinguishing choice and subjective probability estimation processes: Implications for theories of judgment and for cross-cultural comparisons," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 111-123, January.
  91. Christian Schumacher & Steffen Keck & Wenjie Tang, 2020. "Biased interpretation of performance feedback: The role of CEO overconfidence," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(6), pages 1139-1165, June.
  92. Leitner, Stephan & Rausch, Alexandra & Behrens, Doris A., 2017. "Distributed investment decisions and forecasting errors: An analysis based on a multi-agent simulation model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(1), pages 279-294.
  93. Krawczyk, Michał & Wilamowski, Maciej, 2019. "Task difficulty and overconfidence. Evidence from distance running," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
  94. Riege, Anine H. & Teigen, Karl Halvor, 2013. "Additivity neglect in probability estimates: Effects of numeracy and response format," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 41-52.
  95. Torben Lütje & Lukas Menkhoff, 2007. "What drives home bias? Evidence from fund managers' views," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 21-35.
  96. Twardawski, Torsten & Kind, Axel, 2023. "Board overconfidence in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
  97. Frank Sloan & Lindsey Eldred & Tong Guo & Yanzhi Xu, 2013. "Are people overoptimistic about the effects of heavy drinking?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 93-127, August.
  98. Zhang, Mingshan, 2022. "Warren Buffett Anomaly," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
  99. Tuan Pham, Michel & Meyvis, Tom & Zhou, Rongrong, 2001. "Beyond the Obvious: Chronic Vividness of Imagery and the Use of Information in Decision Making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 226-253, March.
  100. Indranil Goswami & Oleg Urminsky, 2020. "More time, more work: How time limits bias estimates of task scope and project duration," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 15(6), pages 994-1008, November.
  101. Matthias Meyer & Cathérine Grisar & Felix Kuhnert, 2011. "The impact of biases on simulation-based risk aggregation: modeling cognitive influences on risk assessment," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 79-105, September.
  102. Rietveld, C.A. & Groenen, P.J.F. & Koellinger, Ph.D. & van der Loos, M.J.H.M. & Thurik, A.R., 2013. "Living Forever: Entrepreneurial Overconfidence at Older Ages," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2013-012-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  103. Michał Krawczyk, 2011. "Overconfident for real? Proper scoring for confidence intervals," Working Papers 2011-15, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  104. Fast, Nathanael J. & Sivanathan, Niro & Mayer, Nicole D. & Galinsky, Adam D., 2012. "Power and overconfident decision-making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 249-260.
  105. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Overconfidence, Risk Aversion and Individual Financial Decisions in Experimental Asset Markets," MPRA Paper 53114, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2014.
  106. Dennis Dittrich & Werner Guth & Boris Maciejovsky, 2005. "Overconfidence in investment decisions: An experimental approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 471-491.
  107. Nicolao Bonini & Stefania Pighin & Enrico Rettore & Lucia Savadori & Federico Schena & Sara Tonini & Paolo Tosi, 2019. "Overconfident people are more exposed to “black swan” events: a case study of avalanche risk," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1443-1467, October.
  108. Fellner-Röhling, Gerlinde & Krügel, Sebastian, 2014. "Judgmental overconfidence and trading activity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 827-842.
  109. repec:cup:judgdm:v:8:y:2013:i:3:p:188-201 is not listed on IDEAS
  110. Ian Larkin & Stephen Leider, 2012. "Incentive Schemes, Sorting, and Behavioral Biases of Employees: Experimental Evidence," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 184-214, May.
  111. Windschitl, Paul D. & Scherer, Aaron M. & Smith, Andrew R. & Rose, Jason P., 2013. "Why so confident? The influence of outcome desirability on selective exposure and likelihood judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 73-86.
  112. Lin, Shi-Woei & Bier, Vicki M., 2008. "A study of expert overconfidence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 711-721.
  113. Robin M. Hogarth & Mariona Portell & Anna Cuxart, 2007. "What Risks Do People Perceive in Everyday Life? A Perspective Gained from the Experience Sampling Method (ESM)," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(6), pages 1427-1439, December.
  114. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00623966 is not listed on IDEAS
  115. Andersson, Patric, 2005. "Overconfident but yet well-calibrated and underconfident : a research not on judgmental miscalibration and flawed self-assessment," Papers 05-37, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
  116. Anil Gaba & Ilia Tsetlin & Robert L. Winkler, 2017. "Combining Interval Forecasts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 1-20, March.
  117. Vetter, J. & Benlian, Alexander & Hess, T., 2011. "Overconfidence in IT Investment Decisions: Why Knowledge can be Boon and Bane at the same Time," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 58030, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
  118. Mary Kynn, 2008. "The ‘heuristics and biases’ bias in expert elicitation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(1), pages 239-264, January.
  119. Tsai, Claire I. & Klayman, Joshua & Hastie, Reid, 2008. "Effects of amount of information on judgment accuracy and confidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 97-105, November.
  120. Baron, Robert A. & Hmieleski, Keith M. & Henry, Rebecca A., 2012. "Entrepreneurs' dispositional positive affect: The potential benefits – and potential costs – of being “up”," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 310-324.
  121. Deshmukh, Sanjay & Goel, Anand M. & Howe, Keith M., 2013. "CEO overconfidence and dividend policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 440-463.
  122. Davis, Mark & Lleo, Sébastien, 2020. "Debiased expert forecasts in continuous-time asset allocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  123. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich & Brozynski, Torsten, 2006. "The impact of experience on risk taking, overconfidence, and herding of fund managers: Complementary survey evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1753-1766, October.
  124. Kriti Jain & Kanchan Mukherjee & J. Neil Bearden & Anil Gaba, 2013. "Unpacking the Future: A Nudge Toward Wider Subjective Confidence Intervals," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(9), pages 1970-1987, September.
  125. Kausel, Edgar E. & Culbertson, Satoris S. & Madrid, Hector P., 2016. "Overconfidence in personnel selection: When and why unstructured interview information can hurt hiring decisions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 27-44.
  126. Sattar A. Mansi & Yaxuan Qi & John K. Wald, 2007. "Option Exercise by CEO's:overconfidence vs. market timing," Working Papers 0005, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
  127. Brenner, Lyle & Griffin, Dale & Koehler, Derek J., 2005. "Modeling patterns of probability calibration with random support theory: Diagnosing case-based judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 64-81, May.
  128. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
  129. Langnickel, Ferdinand & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2016. "Do we measure overconfidence? A closer look at the interval production task," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 121-133.
  130. Quentin Cavalan & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud & Vincent De Gardelle, 2023. "From local to global estimations of confidence in perceptual decisions," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 23008, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  131. Krawczyk, Michal, 2010. "A glimpse through the veil of ignorance: Equality of opportunity and support for redistribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 131-141, February.
  132. Soll, Jack B. & Mannes, Albert E., 2011. "Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 81-102, January.
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