IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/stratm/v41y2020i6p1139-1165.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Biased interpretation of performance feedback: The role of CEO overconfidence

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Schumacher
  • Steffen Keck
  • Wenjie Tang

Abstract

Research summary This study examines how managerial biases in the form of overconfidence change the interpretation of performance feedback and, consequently, shape a firm's risk taking in response to it. Our formal analysis suggests that CEO overconfidence is associated with a lower willingness to increase firm risk taking when facing negative performance feedback and a higher willingness to decrease risk when facing positive feedback. An extension of our model also shows that, when firms are operating close to their survival level, the effects of CEO overconfidence will reverse. We test our predictions empirically with a sample of 847 American manufacturing firms in the years 1992 to 2014. Our results are consistent with our hypotheses and are robust to different empirical operationalizations of CEO overconfidence. Managerial summary Managers evaluate the success of their current business strategy through feedback in the form of their firm's current financial results relative to their own previous performance or that of their peers. Our results show that overconfident CEOs interpret information about the financial situation of their firms more optimistically than non‐overconfident CEOs, which in turn causes them to exhibit a less pronounced reaction to both positive or negative performance feedback. It is thus crucial that managers are clearly aware of how their interpretations and reactions to feedback are affected by their own deeply held personal beliefs and dispositions.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Schumacher & Steffen Keck & Wenjie Tang, 2020. "Biased interpretation of performance feedback: The role of CEO overconfidence," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(6), pages 1139-1165, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:stratm:v:41:y:2020:i:6:p:1139-1165
    DOI: 10.1002/smj.3138
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.3138
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/smj.3138?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klayman, Joshua & Soll, Jack B. & Gonzalez-Vallejo, Claudia & Barlas, Sema, 1999. "Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask, , , , , , , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 216-247, September.
    2. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
    3. Bengtsson, Claes & Persson, Mats & Willenhag, Peter, 2005. "Gender and overconfidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 199-203, February.
    4. John Joseph & Vibha Gaba, 2015. "The fog of feedback: Ambiguity and firm responses to multiple aspiration levels," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(13), pages 1960-1978, December.
    5. Song, Wei-Ling & Wan, Kam-Ming, 2019. "Does CEO compensation reflect managerial ability or managerial power? Evidence from the compensation of powerful CEOs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-14.
    6. Grossman, Zachary & Owens, David, 2012. "An unlucky feeling: Overconfidence and noisy feedback," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 510-524.
    7. Itzhak Ben-David & John R. Graham, 2013. "Managerial Miscalibration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(4), pages 1547-1584.
    8. Joon Mahn Lee & Byoung‐Hyoun Hwang & Hailiang Chen, 2017. "Are founder CEOs more overconfident than professional CEOs? Evidence from S&P 1500 companies," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 751-769, March.
    9. Guoli Chen & Craig Crossland & Shuqing Luo, 2015. "Making the same mistake all over again: CEO overconfidence and corporate resistance to corrective feedback," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1513-1535, October.
    10. Muriel Niederle & Lise Vesterlund, 2007. "Do Women Shy Away From Competition? Do Men Compete Too Much?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(3), pages 1067-1101.
    11. Matthew T. Billett & Yiming Qian, 2008. "Are Overconfident CEOs Born or Made? Evidence of Self-Attribution Bias from Frequent Acquirers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1037-1051, June.
    12. Elizabeth N. K. Lim & Brian T. McCann, 2014. "Performance Feedback and Firm Risk Taking: The Moderating Effects of CEO and Outside Director Stock Options," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(1), pages 262-282, February.
    13. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    14. Yi Tang & Cuili Qian & Guoli Chen & Rui Shen, 2015. "How CEO hubris affects corporate social (ir)responsibility," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1338-1357, September.
    15. Vibha Gaba & John Joseph, 2013. "Corporate Structure and Performance Feedback: Aspirations and Adaptation in M-Form Firms," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(4), pages 1102-1119, August.
    16. Grossman, Zachary & Owens, David, 2012. "An unlucky feeling: Overconfidence and noisy feedback," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 510-524.
    17. Malmendier, Ulrike & Tate, Geoffrey, 2008. "Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 20-43, July.
    18. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    19. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Alberto Galasso & Timothy S. Simcoe, 2011. "CEO Overconfidence and Innovation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(8), pages 1469-1484, August.
    21. Cynthia E. Devers & Gerry McNamara & Robert M. Wiseman & Mathias Arrfelt, 2008. "Moving Closer to the Action: Examining Compensation Design Effects on Firm Risk," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 548-566, August.
    22. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
    23. Krishna Palepu, 1985. "Diversification strategy, profit performance and the entropy measure," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 239-255, July.
    24. Huang, Jiekun & Kisgen, Darren J., 2013. "Gender and corporate finance: Are male executives overconfident relative to female executives?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 822-839.
    25. Mathew L. A. Hayward & Dean A. Shepherd & Dale Griffin, 2006. "A Hubris Theory of Entrepreneurship," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(2), pages 160-172, February.
    26. Philipp Koellinger & Maria Minniti & Christian Schade, 2013. "Gender Differences in Entrepreneurial Propensity," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(2), pages 213-234, April.
    27. Wei‐Ru Chen & Kent D. Miller, 2007. "Situational and institutional determinants of firms' R&D search intensity," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 369-381, April.
    28. David Hirshleifer & Angie Low & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1457-1498, August.
    29. C. Edward Fee & Charles J. Hadlock & Joshua R. Pierce, 2013. "Managers with and without Style: Evidence Using Exogenous Variation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 567-601.
    30. Daylian M. Cain & Don A. Moore & Uriel Haran, 2015. "Making sense of overconfidence in market entry," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 1-18, January.
    31. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    32. Yi Tang & Daniel Z. Mack & Guoli Chen, 2018. "The differential effects of CEO narcissism and hubris on corporate social responsibility," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 1370-1387, May.
    33. James G. March & Zur Shapira, 1987. "Managerial Perspectives on Risk and Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(11), pages 1404-1418, November.
    34. Sendil K. Ethiraj & Alfonso Gambardella & Constance E. Helfat, 2018. "Theory in strategic management," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 1529-1529, June.
    35. John Joseph & Ronald Klingebiel & Alex James Wilson, 2016. "Organizational Structure and Performance Feedback: Centralization, Aspirations, and Termination Decisions," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 1065-1083, October.
    36. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "Market Timing and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 1-32, February.
    37. Thomas Astebro & Scott A. Jeffrey & Gordon K. Adomdza, 2007. "Inventor Perseverance after Being Told to Quit : The Role of Cognitive Biases," Post-Print hal-00476770, HAL.
    38. Heger, Stephanie A. & Papageorge, Nicholas W., 2018. "We should totally open a restaurant: How optimism and overconfidence affect beliefs," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 177-190.
    39. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
    40. Elizabeth Boyle & Zur Shapira, 2012. "The Liability of Leading: Battling Aspiration and Survival Goals in the Jeopardy! Tournament of Champions," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 1100-1113, August.
    41. Pino G. Audia & Henrich R. Greve, 2006. "Less Likely to Fail: Low Performance, Firm Size, and Factory Expansion in the Shipbuilding Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(1), pages 83-94, January.
    42. Daniel Levinthal & Claus Rerup, 2006. "Crossing an Apparent Chasm: Bridging Mindful and Less-Mindful Perspectives on Organizational Learning," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 502-513, August.
    43. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christian J. Resick & Sucheta Nadkarni & Jenny Chu & Jianhong Chen & Wan‐Chien Lien & Jaclyn A. Margolis & Ping Shao, 2023. "I Did It My Way: CEO Core Self‐Evaluations and the Environmental Contingencies on Firm Risk‐Taking Strategies," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(5), pages 1236-1272, July.
    2. Xiao, Shufeng & Tian, Xiaocong, 2023. "Performance feedback and location choice of foreign direct investment," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4).
    3. Saemundsson, Rögnvaldur & Candi, Marina & Sigurjonsson, Throstur Olaf, 2022. "The influence of performance feedback and top management team orientation on decisions about R&D in technology-based firms," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Xi Zhong & Liuyang Ren & Ge Ren, 2023. "Performance shortfall, institutional logic and firms’ tax avoidance," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(4), pages 855-886, December.
    5. Su, Taoyong & Yu, Yuzhu & Chen, Yongheng & Hou, Wanrong, 2023. "On or off: The triggering effect of underperformance duration on cooperative innovation," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Hao, Ying & Li, Junyi & Cui, Xuegang & Ni, Juan, 2023. "CEO experience, managerial overconfidence and investment efficiency: Evidence from a natural experiment in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Xi Zhong & Liuyang Ren & Tiebo Song, 2022. "Beyond Market Strategies: How Multiple Decision-Maker Groups Jointly Influence Underperforming Firms’ Corporate Social (Ir)responsibility," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 178(2), pages 481-499, June.
    8. Rachid Achbah, 2023. "Manager Characteristics and SMEs’ Restructuring Decisions: In-Court vs. Out-of-Court Restructuring," Post-Print hal-04279942, HAL.
    9. Stevo Pavićević & Thomas Keil, 2021. "The role of procedural rationality in debiasing acquisition decisions of overconfident CEOs," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(9), pages 1696-1715, September.
    10. Xi Zhong & Liuyang Ren & Tiebo Song, 2023. "To cheat when continuously missing aspirations: Does CEO experience matter?," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 815-845, June.
    11. Christian Schumacher, 2021. "Organizational structure and CEO dominance," Journal of Organization Design, Springer;Organizational Design Community, vol. 10(1), pages 19-34, March.
    12. Wei Shi & Guoli Chen & Boshuo Li, 2023. "Problem Solving or Responsibility Avoidance? The Role of CEO Internal Attribution Tendency in Shaping Corporate Downsizing in Response to Performance Shortfalls," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(5), pages 1273-1301, July.
    13. Rocha, Vera & Pozzoli, Dario, 2021. "Give it Another Shot: Startup Experience and the Mobilization of Human Resources in New Ventures," Working Papers 11-2021, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    14. Guiyu Bai & Delin Meng, 2022. "Assessing Influence Mechanism of Management Overconfidence, Corporate Environmental Responsibility and Corporate Value: The Moderating Effect of Government Environmental Governance and Media Attention," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-19, December.
    15. Rong Gong, 2023. "CEO overconfidence and the tone of press release," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(2), pages 2081-2108, June.
    16. Tuck Siong Chung & Angie Low & Roland T. Rust, 2023. "Executive confidence and myopic marketing management," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 51(5), pages 1118-1142, September.
    17. Stephen J. Smulowitz & Didier Cossin & Alfredo De Massis & Hongze (Abraham) Lu, 2023. "Wrongdoing in Publicly Listed Family- and Nonfamily-Owned Firms: A Behavioral Perspective," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 47(4), pages 1233-1264, July.
    18. Joon Mahn Lee & Jung Chul Park & Guoli Chen, 2023. "A cognitive perspective on real options investment: CEO overconfidence," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 1084-1110, April.
    19. Killins, Robert & Ngo, Thanh & Wang, Hongxia, 2021. "Goodwill impairment and CEO overconfidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    20. Jennifer Kunz & Lara Sonnenholzner, 2023. "Managerial overconfidence: promoter of or obstacle to organizational resilience?," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 67-128, January.
    21. Dayuan Li & Yuqing Zhao & Ding Wang & Lu Zhang & Yang Liu, 2023. "Too Far East is West: CEO Overconfidence Influences Firm Internationalization in Emerging Economies," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 377-402, June.
    22. Zhong, Xi & Chen, Weihong & Ren, Ge, 2022. "The effects of performance shortfalls on firms’ exploitation and exploration R&D internationalization decisions: Does industry environmental matter?," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    23. Cheng, Lulu & Xie, En & Fang, Junyi & Mei, Nan, 2022. "Performance feedback and firms’ relative strategic emphasis: The moderating effects of board independence and media coverage," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 218-231.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johannes Brunzel, 2021. "Overconfidence and narcissism among the upper echelons: a systematic literature review," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 585-623, July.
    2. Joon Mahn Lee & Jung Chul Park & Guoli Chen, 2023. "A cognitive perspective on real options investment: CEO overconfidence," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 1084-1110, April.
    3. Tuck Siong Chung & Angie Low & Roland T. Rust, 2023. "Executive confidence and myopic marketing management," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 51(5), pages 1118-1142, September.
    4. Su, Taoyong & Yu, Yuzhu & Chen, Yongheng & Hou, Wanrong, 2023. "On or off: The triggering effect of underperformance duration on cooperative innovation," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Danso, Albert & Lartey, Theophilus & Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph & Adomako, Samuel & Lu, Qinye & Uddin, Moshfique, 2019. "Market sentiment and firm investment decision-making," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Baiba Renerte & Jan Hausfeld & Torsten Twardawski, 2020. "Gender, overconfidence, and optimal group composition for investment decisions," TWI Research Paper Series 121, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    7. Kaplan, Steven N. & Sørensen, Morten & Zakolyukina, Anastasia A., 2022. "What is CEO overconfidence? Evidence from executive assessments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 409-425.
    8. Cédric Gutierrez & Thomas Åstebro & Tomasz Obloj, 2020. "The Impact of Overconfidence and Ambiguity Attitude on Market Entry," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 308-329, March.
    9. Stevo Pavićević & Thomas Keil, 2021. "The role of procedural rationality in debiasing acquisition decisions of overconfident CEOs," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(9), pages 1696-1715, September.
    10. Jennifer Kunz & Lara Sonnenholzner, 2023. "Managerial overconfidence: promoter of or obstacle to organizational resilience?," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 67-128, January.
    11. Sanaz Aghazadeh & Lili Sun & Qian Wang & Rong Yang, 2018. "Investors’ perception of CEO overconfidence: evidence from the cost of equity capital," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1129-1150, November.
    12. Ulrike Malmendier & Vincenzo Pezone & Hui Zheng, 2023. "Managerial Duties and Managerial Biases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3174-3201, June.
    13. Prokudina, Elena & Renneboog, Luc & Tobler, Philippe, 2015. "Does Confidence Predict Out-of-Domain Effort?," Discussion Paper 2015-055, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    14. David H. Weng & Yasuhiro Yamakawa, 2023. "I believe I can fly: how target venture CEO overconfidence affects acquisition completion," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 127-151, June.
    15. Pikulina, Elena & Renneboog, Luc & Tobler, Philippe N., 2018. "Do confident individuals generally work harder?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 51-60.
    16. Banerjee, Suman & Humphery-Jenner, Mark & Nanda, Vikram, 2018. "Does CEO bias escalate repurchase activity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 105-126.
    17. Saemundsson, Rögnvaldur & Candi, Marina & Sigurjonsson, Throstur Olaf, 2022. "The influence of performance feedback and top management team orientation on decisions about R&D in technology-based firms," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    18. Markus M. Möbius & Muriel Niederle & Paul Niehaus & Tanya S. Rosenblat, 2022. "Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 7793-7817, November.
    19. Twardawski, Torsten & Kind, Axel, 2023. "Board overconfidence in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    20. Elizabeth N. K. Lim & Brian T. McCann, 2014. "Performance Feedback and Firm Risk Taking: The Moderating Effects of CEO and Outside Director Stock Options," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(1), pages 262-282, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:stratm:v:41:y:2020:i:6:p:1139-1165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/0143-2095 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.