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Are Overconfident CEOs Born or Made? Evidence of Self-Attribution Bias from Frequent Acquirers

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Author Info

  • Matthew T. Billett

    ()
    (Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa 52242)

  • Yiming Qian

    ()
    (Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa 52242)

Abstract

We explore the history of mergers and acquisitions made by individual CEOs. Our study has three main findings: (1) CEOs' first deals exhibit zero announcement effects while their subsequent deals exhibit negative announcement effects; (2) while acquisition likelihood increases in the performance associated with previous acquisitions, previous positive performance does not curb the negative wealth effects associated with subsequent deals; and (3) CEOs' net purchase of stock is greater preceding subsequent deals than it is for first deals. We interpret these results as consistent with self-attribution bias leading to overconfidence. We also find evidence that the market anticipates future deals based on the CEO's acquisition history and impounds such anticipation into stock prices.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1070.0830
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

Volume (Year): 54 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 (June)
Pages: 1037-1051

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Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:54:y:2008:i:6:p:1037-1051

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Related research

Keywords: overconfidence; hubris; self-attribution; frequent acquirer; mergers and acquisitions; insider trading;

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Cited by:
  1. Aktas, Nihat & de Bodt, Eric & Roll, Richard, 2011. "Serial acquirer bidding: An empirical test of the learning hypothesis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 18-32, February.
  2. Frijns, Bart & Gilbert, Aaron & Lehnert, Thorsten & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2013. "Uncertainty avoidance, risk tolerance and corporate takeover decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2457-2471.
  3. Tim R. Adam & Chitru S. Fernando & Evgenia Golubeva, 2012. "Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Risk Management," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-018, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  4. Cornett, Marcia Millon & Tanyeri, Basak & Tehranian, Hassan, 2011. "The effect of merger anticipation on bidder and target firm announcement period returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 595-611, June.
  5. Ismail, Ahmad, 2008. "Which acquirers gain more, single or multiple? Recent evidence from the USA market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 72-84.
  6. Lin, Yueh-hsiang & Hu, Shing-yang & Chen, Ming-shen, 2008. "Testing pecking order prediction from the viewpoint of managerial optimism: Some empirical evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 160-181, January.
  7. Christoffersen, Susan E.K. & Sarkissian, Sergei, 2011. "The demographics of fund turnover," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 414-440, July.
  8. Kim, Y. Han (Andy), 2013. "Self attribution bias of the CEO: Evidence from CEO interviews on CNBC," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2472-2489.
  9. Jaffe, Jeffrey & Pedersen, David & Voetmann, Torben, 2013. "Skill differences in corporate acquisitions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 166-181.
  10. Véronique Bessière, 2007. "Excès de confiance des dirigeants et décisions financières:une synthèse," Revue Finance Contrôle Stratégie, revues.org, vol. 10(1), pages 39-66, March.
  11. Hirshleifer, David & Low, Angie & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2010. "Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?," MPRA Paper 22425, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Chiang, Yao-Min & Hirshleifer, David & Qian, Yiming & Sherman, Ann, 2009. "Learning to Fail? Evidence from Frequent IPO Investors," MPRA Paper 16854, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2009.
  13. Croci, Ettore & Petmezas, Dimitris & Vagenas-Nanos, Evangelos, 2010. "Managerial overconfidence in high and low valuation markets and gains to acquisitions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 368-378, December.
  14. Eckbo, B. Espen, 2009. "Bidding strategies and takeover premiums: A review," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 149-178, February.
  15. Pütz, Alexander & Ruenzi, Stefan, 2010. "Overconfidence among professional investors: Evidence from mutual fund managers," CFR Working Papers 08-08 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  16. Yim, Soojin, 2013. "The acquisitiveness of youth: CEO age and acquisition behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 250-273.
  17. Yook, Ken C., 2010. "Long-run stock performance following stock repurchases," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 323-331, August.

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