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A new method for measuring CEO overconfidence: Evidence from acquisitions

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  • Ismail, Ahmad
  • Mavis, Christos P.

Abstract

This study proposes a new direct method of measuring managerial overconfidence using an acquisition setting. CEOs with significantly higher synergies forecast error (SFE), measured as the deviation between acquisition forecasted operating synergies and actual realized operating synergies, are more likely to exhibit traits of overconfidence. In support of this view, we find that synergies forecast error is positively related to takeover premium and negatively related to acquirer returns. Additionally, validation tests confirm that high SFE firms conduct more diversifying acquisitions. Reflecting, as well, the ex-ante power of the overconfidence measure in other settings, high SFE firms have a positive relation with capital expenditures, leverage, and innovation, and negative relation with equity issues.

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  • Ismail, Ahmad & Mavis, Christos P., 2022. "A new method for measuring CEO overconfidence: Evidence from acquisitions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:79:y:2022:i:c:s1057521921002453
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101964
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CEO overconfidence; Synergies forecast error; Hubris; Mergers and acquisitions; Takeover premium; Abnormal returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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