Does Past Success Lead Analysts to Become Overconfident?
AbstractThis paper provides evidence that analysts who have predicted earnings more accurately than the median analyst in the previous four quarters tend to be simultaneously less accurate and further from the consensus forecast in their subsequent earnings prediction. This phenomenon is economically and statistically meaningful. The results are robust to different estimation techniques and different control variables. Our findings are consistent with an attribution bias that leads analysts who have experienced a short-lived success to become overconfident in their ability to forecast future earnings.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.
Volume (Year): 52 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
overconfidence; cognitive biases; analysts; earnings forecasts;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Jiang, Danling, 2013. "The second moment matters! Cross-sectional dispersion of firm valuations and expected returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3974-3992.
- Benson, David & Ziedonis, Rosemarie H., 2010. "Corporate venture capital and the returns to acquiring portfolio companies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 478-499, December.
- Hilary, Gilles & Hsu, Charles, 2011. "Endogenous overconfidence in managerial forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 300-313, April.
- Juliette Rouchier & Emily Tanimura, 2012. "When overconfident agents slow down collective learning," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00623966, HAL.
- Beshears, John & Milkman, Katherine L., 2011. "Do sell-side stock analysts exhibit escalation of commitment?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 304-317, March.
- Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Which past returns affect trading volume?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, February.
- Hsu, Yenshan & Shiu, Cheng-Yi, 2010. "The overconfidence of investors in the primary market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 217-239, April.
- Itzhak Ben-David & John R. Graham, 2013.
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 128(4), pages 1547-1584.
- Itzhak Ben-David & John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2010. "Managerial Miscalibration," NBER Working Papers 16215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben-David, Itzhak & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2010. "Managerial Miscalibration," Working Paper Series 2010-12, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- García-Meca, Emma & Sánchez-Ballesta, Juan Pedro, 2006. "Influences on financial analyst forecast errors: A meta-analysis," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-52, February.
- Derann Hsu & Cheng-Huei Chiao, 2011. "Relative accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts over time: a Markov chain analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 477-507, November.
- Zaiane Salma & Abaoub Ezzeddine, 2008. "Overconfidence And Trading Volume: Evidence From An Emergent Market," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(10), pages 41.
- Chiang, Yao-Min & Hirshleifer, David & Qian, Yiming & Sherman, Ann, 2009. "Learning to Fail? Evidence from Frequent IPO Investors," MPRA Paper 16854, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2009.
- Skala, Dorota, 2008. "Overconfidence in Psychology and Finance – an Interdisciplinary Literature Review," MPRA Paper 26386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Virginia Bodolica & Martin Spraggon, 2011. "Behavioral Governance and Self-Conscious Emotions: Unveiling Governance Implications of Authentic and Hubristic Pride," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 100(3), pages 535-550, May.
- Ajay Subramanian & Jonathan Clarke, 2004.
"Dynamic Forecasting Behavior by Analysts: Theory and Evidence,"
Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings
546, Econometric Society.
- Clarke, Jonathan & Subramanian, Ajay, 2006. "Dynamic forecasting behavior by analysts: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 81-113, April.
- repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00623966 is not listed on IDEAS
- Mellahi, Kamel & Collings, David G., 2010. "The barriers to effective global talent management: The example of corporate élites in MNEs," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 143-149, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.