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What is the Price of Hubris? Using Takeover Battles to Infer Overpayments and Synergies

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Author Info
Pekka Hietala
Steven N. Kaplan
David T. Robinson

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Abstract

We present a framework for determining the information that can be extracted from stock prices around takeover contests. In only two types of cases is it theoretically possible to use stock price movements to infer bidder overpayment and relative synergies. The takeover contest for Paramount in 1994 illustrates one of these generic cases. We estimate that Viacom, the winning' bidder, overpaid for Paramount by more than $2 billion. This occurred despite the fact that Viacom's CEO owned roughly 3/4 of Viacom. These results are consistent with managerial overconfidence and/or large private benefits, but not with the traditional agency-based incentive problem.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9264.

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Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9264

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jensen, Michael C. & Ruback, Richard S., 1983. "The market for corporate control : The scientific evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 5-50, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Gregor Andrade & Mark Mitchell & Erik Stafford, 2001. "New Evidence and Perspectives on Mergers," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 103-120, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bradley, Michael & Desai, Anand & Kim, E. Han, 1988. "Synergistic gains from corporate acquisitions and their division between the stockholders of target and acquiring firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-40, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Comment, Robert & Schwert, G. William, 1995. "Poison or placebo? Evidence on the deterrence and wealth effects of modern antitakeover measures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 3-43, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Sanford J. Grossman & Oliver D. Hart, 1980. "Takeover Bids, the Free-Rider Problem, and the Theory of the Corporation," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 11(1), pages 42-64, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fama, Eugene F & Jensen, Michael C, 1983. "Separation of Ownership and Control," Journal of Law & Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(2), pages 301-25, June.
  8. Morck, Randall & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1988. "Management ownership and market valuation : An empirical analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 293-315, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Eckbo, B Espen, 1992. " Mergers and the Value of Antitrust Deterrence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1005-29, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mark Mitchell & Todd Pulvino & Erik Stafford, 2002. "Limited Arbitrage in Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 551-584, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 2001. "Stock Market Driven Acquisitions," NBER Working Papers 8439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bebchuk, Lucian Arye & Hart, Oliver, 2001. "Takeover Bids versus Proxy Fights in Contests for Corporate Control," CEPR Discussion Papers 3073, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Eckbo, B Espen, 1985. "Mergers and the Market Concentration Doctrine: Evidence from the Capital Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 325-49, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate & Jonathan Yan, 2007. "Corporate Financial Policies With Overconfident Managers," NBER Working Papers 13570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Malmendier, Ulrike M. & Tate, Geoffrey, 2003. "Who Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market's Reaction," Research Papers 1798, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2004. "Who Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market's Reaction," NBER Working Papers 10813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lucian Bebchuk & Oliver Hart, 2001. "Takeover bids vs. Proxy Fights in Contests for Corporate Control," NBER Working Papers 8633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Young Han Lee & Ulrike Malmendier, 2007. "The Bidder's Curse," NBER Working Papers 13699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bebchuk, Lucian Arye & Hart, Oliver, 2001. "Takeover Bids versus Proxy Fights in Contests for Corporate Control," CEPR Discussion Papers 3073, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Rachel A. Campbell & Roman Kräussl, 2006. "Does Patience Pay? Empirical Testing of the Option to Delay Accepting a Tender Offer in the U.S. Banking Sector," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/32, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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