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Overinvestment, inflation uncertainty, and managerial overconfidence: Firm level analysis of Chinese corporations

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  • Wang, Yizhong
  • Chen, Carl R.
  • Chen, Lifang
  • Huang, Ying Sophie

Abstract

We study corporate investment by considering both external economic factor and managerial behavior, in particular the dynamic interaction between inflation uncertainty and managerial overconfidence by employing a sample of Chinese companies. The empirical findings demonstrate that lower inflation uncertainty increases over-investment, and managerial overconfidence exacerbates such effect. Further analysis shows that over-investment in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is mainly driven by managerial overconfidence, and the negative association between inflation uncertainty and overinvestment is due to managerial overconfidence. The effect of managerial overconfidence is mute in non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs). In addition, we find asymmetric impact of inflation uncertainty on corporate over-investment during different economic cycles.

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  • Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Chen, Lifang & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2016. "Overinvestment, inflation uncertainty, and managerial overconfidence: Firm level analysis of Chinese corporations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 54-69.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:38:y:2016:i:c:p:54-69
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2016.07.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overinvestment; Inflation uncertainty; Managerial overconfidence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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