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The Relationship between Currency Carry Trades and U.S. Stocks The article examines the relationship between daily returns of currency carry trades and U.S. stocks from January 1995 through September 2010. Carry trade and stock returns are highly correlated with no Granger-causality in either direction. An EGARCH model shows that significant volatility spillovers flow from the stock market to the carry trade market, but not vice versa. The markets are more correlated in periods of high volatility. Volatilities in both markets also increase more with negative innovations than positive innovations. A sectoral analysis of the index suggests that volatilities of cyclical stocks have more impact than non-cyclical stocks on carry trades

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  • Yiuman Tse

    (University of Texas at San Antonio)

  • Lin Zhao

    (University of Texas at San Antonio)

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    File URL: http://business.utsa.edu/wps/fin/0005FIN-257-2011.pdf
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    Paper provided by College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio in its series Working Papers with number 0005.

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    Length: 32 pages
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    Handle: RePEc:tsa:wpaper:0005

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    Keywords: Carry trades; US stocks; EGARCH;

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    1. Brian J. Hall & Kevin J. Murphy, 2000. "Optimal Exercise Prices for Executive Stock Options," NBER Working Papers 7548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Carpenter, Jennifer N & Remmers, Barbara, 2001. "Executive Stock Option Exercises and Inside Information," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(4), pages 513-34, October.
    3. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
    4. Hackbarth, Dirk, 2008. "Managerial Traits and Capital Structure Decisions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(04), pages 843-881, December.
    5. J B Heaton, 2002. "Managerial Optimism and Corporate Finance," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 31(2), Summer.
    6. Roll, Richard, 1986. "The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 197-216, April.
    7. Chip Heath & Steven Huddart & Mark Lang, 1999. "Psychological Factors And Stock Option Exercise," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 601-627, May.
    8. Huddart, Steven & Lang, Mark, 2003. "Information distribution within firms: evidence from stock option exercises," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-3), pages 3-31, January.
    9. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, And Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292, February.
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