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Credit Cycles and Macro Fundamentals

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. , L., 2013. "Fragility of reputation and clustering of risk-taking," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(3), September.
  2. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Monteiro, Andre, 2008. "The multi-state latent factor intensity model for credit rating transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 399-424, January.
  3. Orth, Walter, 2013. "Multi-period credit default prediction with time-varying covariates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 214-222.
  4. Miroslav Plasil & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac, 2015. "In the Quest of Measuring the Financial Cycle," Working Papers 2015/05, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
  5. Yang, Lu & Yang, Lei & Ho, Kung-Cheng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2020. "Dependence structures and risk spillover in China’s credit bond market: A copula and CoVaR approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  6. Coen Hutters & Max B. Mendel, 2025. "Modeling Economic Systems as Multiport Networks," Papers 2512.20600, arXiv.org.
  7. Lee, Shih-Cheng & Lin, Chien-Ting & Yang, Chih-Kai, 2011. "The asymmetric behavior and procyclical impact of asset correlations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2559-2568, October.
  8. Konrad Banachewicz & André Lucas, 2008. "Quantile forecasting for credit risk management using possibly misspecified hidden Markov models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 566-586.
  9. Telg, Sean & Dubinova, Anna & Lucas, Andre, 2023. "Covid-19, credit risk management modeling, and government support," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  10. Bitar, Mohammad & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Walker, Thomas, 2020. "Efficiency in Islamic vs. conventional banking: The role of capital and liquidity," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
  11. Drew Creal & Bernd Schwaab & Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas, 2014. "Observation-Driven Mixed-Measurement Dynamic Factor Models with an Application to Credit Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 898-915, December.
  12. Hasan, Iftekhar & Kim, Suk-Joong & Politsidis, Panagiotis N. & Wu, Eliza, 2021. "Loan syndication under Basel II: How do firm credit ratings affect the cost of credit?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  13. Areski Cousin & Mohamed Reda Kheliouen, 2016. "A comparative study on the estimation of factor migration models," Working Papers halshs-01351926, HAL.
  14. Bezemer, Dirk J & Werner, Richard A, 2009. "Disaggregated Credit Flows and Growth in Central Europe," MPRA Paper 17456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Anna Dubinova & Andre Lucas & Sean Telg, 2021. "COVID-19, Credit Risk and Macro Fundamentals," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-059/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  16. Schwaab, Bernd & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2014. "Nowcasting and forecasting global financial sector stress and credit market dislocation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 741-758.
  17. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Roman Kräussl & Joshua M. Pollet, 2015. "Risk and Expected Returns of Private Equity Investments: Evidence Based on Market Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(12), pages 3269-3302.
  18. Paolo Agnese & Manuel Rizzo & Gianfranco A. Vento, 2018. "SMEs finance and bankruptcies: The role of credit guarantee schemes in the UK," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(3), pages 1-1.
  19. Carlos Castro, 2012. "Confidence sets for asset correlations in portfolio credit risk," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario.
  20. Stefan Kerbl & Michael Sigmund, 2011. "What Drives Aggregate Credit Risk?," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 22, pages 72-87.
  21. Guillaume Horny & Simone Manganelli & Benoit Mojon, 2018. "Measuring Financial Fragmentation in the Euro Area Corporate Bond Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, October.
  22. Eidenberger, Judith & Neudorfer, Benjamin & Sigmund, Michael & Stein, Ingrid, 2014. "What predicts financial (in)stability? A Bayesian approach," Discussion Papers 36/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  23. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik, 2010. "Procyclicality of the Financial System and Simulation of the Feedback Effect," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010, chapter 0, pages 110-119, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
  24. Jones, Stewart & Wang, Tim, 2019. "Predicting private company failure: A multi-class analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 161-188.
  25. Filipe, Sara Ferreira & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Michala, Dimitra, 2016. "Forecasting distress in European SME portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 112-135.
  26. Figlewski, Stephen & Frydman, Halina & Liang, Weijian, 2012. "Modeling the effect of macroeconomic factors on corporate default and credit rating transitions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-105.
  27. Stewart Jones, 2017. "Corporate bankruptcy prediction: a high dimensional analysis," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1366-1422, September.
  28. Broto, Carmen & Molina, Luis, 2016. "Sovereign ratings and their asymmetric response to fundamentals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 206-224.
  29. Edirisinghe, Chanaka & Sawicki, Julia & Zhao, Yonggan & Zhou, Jun, 2022. "Predicting credit rating changes conditional on economic strength," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
  30. André A. Monteiro, 2008. "Parameter Driven Multi-state Duration Models: Simulated vs. Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-021/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  31. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2019. "Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects," Staff Working Papers 19-16, Bank of Canada.
  32. Hasan, Iftekhar & Kim, Suk-Joong & Politsidis, Panagiotis & Wu, Eliza, 2020. "Syndicated bank lending and rating downgrades: Do sovereign ceiling policies really matter?," MPRA Paper 102941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Maalaoui Chun, Olfa & Dionne, Georges & François, Pascal, 2014. "Credit spread changes within switching regimes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 41-55.
  34. Konrad Banachewicz & André Lucas & Aad van der Vaart, 2008. "Modelling Portfolio Defaults Using Hidden Markov Models with Covariates," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 155-171, March.
  35. Bitar, Mohammad & Hassan, M. Kabir & Walker, Thomas, 2017. "Political systems and the financial soundness of Islamic banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 18-44.
  36. Judith Eidenberger & Benjamin Neudorfer & Michael Sigmund & Ingrid Stein, 2013. "Quantifying Financial Stability in Austria, New Tools for Macroprudential Supervision," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 26, pages 62-81.
  37. Chironna, Gianpiero & Orlando, Giuseppe, 2026. "Predicting bank defaults in Italy: A comparative analysis of conventional and machine learning approaches," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 788-833.
  38. Salma Louati & Younes Boujelbene, 2021. "Basel Regulations and Banks’ Risk-efficiency Nexus: Evidence from Dynamic Simultaneous-equation Models," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 578-602, October.
  39. Stephanie F. Cheng & Dushyantkumar Vyas & Regina Wittenberg-Moerman & Wuyang Zhao, 2025. "Exposure to superstar firms and financial distress," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 1355-1396, June.
  40. Xing, Kai & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2020. "Predicting default rates by capturing critical transitions in the macroeconomic system," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
  41. Min Bai & Dong Zhang & Shan Sun & Yafeng Qin, 2026. "How do brick-and-mortar businesses leverage financial markets in China?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 51(2), pages 463-488, May.
  42. Beirne, John, 2020. "Financial cycles in asset markets and regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 358-374.
  43. Oliver Blümke, 2020. "Estimating the probability of default for no‐default and low‐default portfolios," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(1), pages 89-107, January.
  44. Voß, Sebastian & Weißbach, Rafael, 2014. "A score-test on measurement errors in rating transition times," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 16-29.
  45. Oliver Blümke, 2022. "Multiperiod default probability forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 677-696, July.
  46. Xing, Kai & Luo, Dan & Liu, Lanlan, 2023. "Macroeconomic conditions, corporate default, and default clustering," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
  47. Custodio João, Igor & Lucas, André & Schaumburg, Julia & Schwaab, Bernd, 2023. "Dynamic clustering of multivariate panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
  48. Djeundje, Viani Biatat & Crook, Jonathan, 2018. "Incorporating heterogeneity and macroeconomic variables into multi-state delinquency models for credit cards," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 697-709.
  49. Bezemer, Dirk J, 2009. "Disaggregated Credit Flows and Growth in Central Europe," MPRA Paper 15896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  50. Ilyes Abid & Farid Mkaouar & Olfa Kaabia, 2018. "Dynamic analysis of the forecasting bankruptcy under presence of unobserved heterogeneity," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 241-256, March.
  51. Dimitra Michala & Theoharry Grammatikos & Sara Ferreira Filipe, 2013. "Forecasting distress in European SME portfolios," DEM Discussion Paper Series 13-2, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
  52. Jones, Stewart & Johnstone, David & Wilson, Roy, 2015. "An empirical evaluation of the performance of binary classifiers in the prediction of credit ratings changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 72-85.
  53. Bernd Schwaab & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2017. "Global Credit Risk: World, Country and Industry Factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 296-317, March.
  54. Dimitra Michala & Theoharry Grammatikos & Sara Ferreira Filipe, 2013. "Forecasting distress in European SME portfolios," LSF Research Working Paper Series 13-2, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
  55. Haipeng Xing & Ying Chen, 2018. "Dependence of Structural Breaks in Rating Transition Dynamics on Economic and Market Variations," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 11, pages 1-18, February.
  56. Ali Ebrahim Nejad & Saeid Hoseinzade & Ali Niazi, 2024. "Credit rating agencies during credit crunch," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 124-147, April.
  57. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Sun, Jie & Wang, Tao, 2012. "Multiperiod corporate default prediction—A forward intensity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 191-209.
  58. Kauko, Karlo, 2010. "The feasibility of through-the-cycle ratings," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2010, Bank of Finland.
  59. repec:syb:wpbsba:03/2013 is not listed on IDEAS
  60. Klein, Arne C. & Pliszka, Kamil, 2018. "The time-varying impact of systematic risk factors on corporate bond spreads," Discussion Papers 14/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  61. Nguyen, Ha, 2023. "An empirical application of Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo to frailty correlated default models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 103-121.
  62. Salnikov, V. & Mogilat, A. & Maslov, I., 2012. "Stress Testing for Russian Real Sector: First Approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 46-70.
  63. Bruneau, C. & de Bandt, O. & El Amri, W., 2012. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate financial fragility," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 219-235.
  64. Banu Simmons-Sueer, 2013. "Forecasting High-Yield Bond Spreads Using the Loan Market as Leading Indicator," KOF Working papers 13-328, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  65. Anisa Caja & Frédéric Planchet, 2014. "Modeling Cycle Dependence in Credit Insurance," Risks, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, March.
  66. Georges Dionne & Pascal François & Olfa Maalaoui Chun, 2009. "Detecting Regime Shifts in Corporate Credit Spreads," Cahiers de recherche 0929, CIRPEE.
  67. Ming-Chin Hung & Yung-Kang Ching & Shih-Kuei Lin, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on the Robustness of the Probability of Default Estimation Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(23), pages 1-13, November.
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