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Risk and expected returns of private equity investments: Evidence based on market prices

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  • Jegadeesh, Narasimhan
  • Kräussl, Roman
  • Pollet, Joshua

Abstract

We estimate the risk and expected returns of private equity investments based on the market prices of exchange traded funds of funds that invest in unlisted private equity funds. Our results indicate that the market expects unlisted private equity funds to earn abnormal returns of about one to two percent. We also find that the market expects listed private equity funds to earn zero to marginally negative abnormal returns net of fees. Both listed and unlisted private equity funds have market betas close to one and positive factor loadings on the Fama-French SMB factor. Private equity fund returns are positively correlated with GDP growth and negatively correlated with the credit spread. Finally, we find that market returns of exchange traded funds of funds and listed private equity funds predict changes in self-reported book values of unlisted private equity funds.

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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2010/04.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:201004
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Keywords: Private Equity; Listed Private Equity; Risk-Return Characteristics; Funds of Funds;

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  • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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  1. Kaplan, Steven N. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1990. "How risky is the debt in highly leveraged transactions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 215-245, September.
  2. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
  3. Arthur Korteweg & Morten Sorensen, 2010. "Risk and Return Characteristics of Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurial Companies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(10), pages 3738-3772, October.
  4. Steven N. Kaplan & Antoinette Schoar, 2005. "Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence, and Capital Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1791-1823, 08.
  5. Alexander Ljungqvist & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "The cash flow, return and risk characteristics of private equity," NBER Working Papers 9454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Joost Driessen & Tse-Chun Lin & Ludovic Phalippou, 2008. "A New Method to Estimate Risk and Return of Non-Traded Assets from Cash Flows: The Case of Private Equity Funds," NBER Working Papers 14144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. John H. Cochrane, 2001. "The Risk and Return of Venture Capital," NBER Working Papers 8066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Oliver, Gottschalg & Ludovic, Phalippou, 2006. "The performance of private equity funds," Les Cahiers de Recherche 852, HEC Paris.
  9. Steven N. Kaplan & Jeremy C. Stein, 1990. "How Risky is the Debt in Highly Leveraged Transactions? Evidence from Public Recapitalizations," NBER Working Papers 3390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Siem Jan Koopman & Roman Kraeussl & Andre Lucas & Andre Monteiro, 2006. "Credit Cycles and Macro Fundamentals," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-023/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  11. Francesco Franzoni & Eric Nowak & Ludovic Phalippou, 2012. "Private Equity Performance and Liquidity Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2341-2373, December.
  12. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. " Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
  13. Quigley, John M. & Woodward, Susan E., 2003. "An Index for Venture Capital," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt15g2h7g9, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  14. Martin, John D. & Petty, J. William, 1983. "An Analysis of the Performance of Publicly Traded Venture Capital Companies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 401-410, September.
  15. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  16. Gompers, Paul & Lerner, Josh, 2000. "Money chasing deals? The impact of fund inflows on private equity valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 281-325, February.
  17. Gompers, Paul & Lerner, Josh, 1999. "An analysis of compensation in the U.S. venture capital partnership," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 3-44, January.
  18. Brophy, David J. & Guthner, Mark W., 1988. "Publicly traded venture capital funds: implications for institutional "fund of funds" investors," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 187-206.
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Cited by:

  1. Da Rin, M. & Hellmann, T. & Puri, M.L., 2011. "A Survey of Venture Capital Research," Discussion Paper 2011-111, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Robert S. Harris & Tim Jenkinson & Steven N. Kaplan, 2014. "Private Equity Performance: What Do We Know?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 1851-1882, October.
  3. Morten Sorensen & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2014. "Valuing Private Equity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(7), pages 1977-2021.

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