Risk and expected returns of private equity investments: Evidence based on market prices
We estimate the risk and expected returns of private equity investments based on the market prices of exchange traded funds of funds that invest in unlisted private equity funds. Our results indicate that the market expects unlisted private equity funds to earn abnormal returns of about one to two percent. We also find that the market expects listed private equity funds to earn zero to marginally negative abnormal returns net of fees. Both listed and unlisted private equity funds have market betas close to one and positive factor loadings on the Fama-French SMB factor. Private equity fund returns are positively correlated with GDP growth and negatively correlated with the credit spread. Finally, we find that market returns of exchange traded funds of funds and listed private equity funds predict changes in self-reported book values of unlisted private equity funds.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 (0)69 798-30050
Fax: +49 (0)69 798-30077
Web page: http://www.ifk-cfs.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gompers, Paul & Lerner, Josh, 2000. "Money chasing deals? The impact of fund inflows on private equity valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 281-325, February.
- Arthur Korteweg & Morten Sorensen, 2010. "Risk and Return Characteristics of Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurial Companies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(10), pages 3738-3772, October.
- Kaplan, Steven N. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1990. "How risky is the debt in highly leveraged transactions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 215-245, September.
- Gompers, Paul & Lerner, Josh, 1999. "An analysis of compensation in the U.S. venture capital partnership," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 3-44, January.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
- Cochrane, John, 2000.
"The Risk and Return of Venture Capital,"
University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management
qt7qm9h594, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Stéphanie Bilo & Hans Christophers & Michèl Degosciu & Heinz Zimmermann, 2005. "Risk, returns, and biases of listed private equity portfolios," Working papers 2005/01, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
- Steven N. Kaplan & Jeremy C. Stein, 1990. "How Risky is the Debt in Highly Leveraged Transactions? Evidence from Public Recapitalizations," NBER Working Papers 3390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oliver, Gottschalg & Ludovic, Phalippou, 2006.
"The performance of private equity funds,"
Les Cahiers de Recherche
852, HEC Paris.
- Joost Driessen & Tse-Chun Lin & Ludovic Phalippou, 2008.
"A New Method to Estimate Risk and Return of Non-Traded Assets from Cash Flows: The Case of Private Equity Funds,"
NBER Working Papers
14144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Driessen, Joost & Lin, Tse-Chun & Phalippou, Ludovic, 2012. "A New Method to Estimate Risk and Return of Nontraded Assets from Cash Flows: The Case of Private Equity Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(03), pages 511-535, August.
- Koopman, Siem Jan & Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André, 2006.
"Credit cycles and macro fundamentals,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2006/33, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Steven N. Kaplan & Antoinette Schoar, 2005.
"Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence, and Capital Flows,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1791-1823, 08.
- Kaplan, Steve & Schoar, Antoinette, 2004. "Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence and Capital Flows," Working papers 4446-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Brophy, David J. & Guthner, Mark W., 1988. "Publicly traded venture capital funds: implications for institutional "fund of funds" investors," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 187-206.
- Martin, John D. & Petty, J. William, 1983. "An Analysis of the Performance of Publicly Traded Venture Capital Companies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 401-410, September.
- Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991.
" Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
- Alexander Ljungqvist & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "The cash flow, return and risk characteristics of private equity," NBER Working Papers 9454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
- Francesco Franzoni & Eric Nowak & Ludovic Phalippou, 2012. "Private Equity Performance and Liquidity Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2341-2373, December.
- Quigley, John M. & Woodward, Susan E., 2003. "An Index for Venture Capital," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt15g2h7g9, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:201004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.