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Risk and expected returns of private equity investments: Evidence based on market prices

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  • Jegadeesh, Narasimhan
  • Kräussl, Roman
  • Pollet, Joshua

Abstract

We estimate the risk and expected returns of private equity investments based on the market prices of exchange traded funds of funds that invest in unlisted private equity funds. Our results indicate that the market expects unlisted private equity funds to earn abnormal returns of about one to two percent. We also find that the market expects listed private equity funds to earn zero to marginally negative abnormal returns net of fees. Both listed and unlisted private equity funds have market betas close to one and positive factor loadings on the Fama-French SMB factor. Private equity fund returns are positively correlated with GDP growth and negatively correlated with the credit spread. Finally, we find that market returns of exchange traded funds of funds and listed private equity funds predict changes in self-reported book values of unlisted private equity funds.

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  • Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Kräussl, Roman & Pollet, Joshua, 2010. "Risk and expected returns of private equity investments: Evidence based on market prices," CFS Working Paper Series 2010/04, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:201004
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    Cited by:

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    2. Godwin, Alexander, 2022. "Estimating illiquid asset class alpha and beta using secondary transaction prices," MPRA Paper 112510, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Brian H. Boyer & Taylor D. Nadauld & Keith P. Vorkink & Michael S. Weisbach, 2023. "Discount‐Rate Risk in Private Equity: Evidence from Secondary Market Transactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 835-885, April.
    4. Robert S. Harris & Tim Jenkinson & Steven N. Kaplan & Ruediger Stucke, 2020. "Has Persistence Persisted in Private Equity? Evidence from Buyout and Venture Capital Funds," Working Papers 2020-167, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    5. Ljungqvist, Alexander & Bircan, Cagatay & Biesinger, Markus, 2020. "Value Creation in Private Equity," CEPR Discussion Papers 14676, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Kräussl, Roman & Pollet, Joshua M. & Stefanova, Denitsa, 2023. "Closed-end funds and discount control mechanisms," CFS Working Paper Series 707, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Robert S. Harris & Tim Jenkinson & Steven N. Kaplan, 2014. "Private Equity Performance: What Do We Know?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 1851-1882, October.
    8. Rin, Marco Da & Hellmann, Thomas & Puri, Manju, 2013. "A Survey of Venture Capital Research," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 573-648, Elsevier.
    9. Tereza Tykvová, 2018. "Venture capital and private equity financing: an overview of recent literature and an agenda for future research," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 88(3), pages 325-362, May.
    10. Brian Boyer & Taylor D. Nadauld & Keith P. Vorkink & Michael S. Weisbach, 2018. "Private Equity Indices Based on Secondary Market Transactions," NBER Working Papers 25207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Morten Sorensen & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2014. "Valuing Private Equity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(7), pages 1977-2021.
    12. Agarwal, Vikas & Barber, Brad M. & Cheng, Si & Hameed, Allaudeen & Shanker, Harshini & Yasuda, Ayako, 2023. "Do investors overvalue startups? Evidence from the junior stakes of mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 23-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    13. Vikas Agarwal & Brad Barber & Si Cheng & Allaudeen Hameed & Ayako Yasuda, 2023. "Private Company Valuations by Mutual Funds," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 693-738.
    14. Kallenos, Theodosis L. & Nishiotis, George P., 2023. "Market-based private equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    15. Robinson, David T. & Sensoy, Berk A., 2016. "Cyclicality, performance measurement, and cash flow liquidity in private equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 521-543.
    16. Douglas Cumming & Grant Fleming & Sofia A. Johan, 2011. "Institutional Investment in Listed Private Equity," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(3), pages 594-618, June.
    17. A. Dyck & L. Pomorski, 2016. "Investor Scale and Performance in Private Equity Investments," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1081-1106.
    18. Maurice McCourt, 2022. "Permanent private equity: Market performance and transactions," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 339-383, June.
    19. Prosper Lamothe-Fernández & Eduardo García-Argüelles & Sergio Manuel Fernández-Miguélez & Omar Hassani-Zerrouk, 2025. "Determining Drivers of Private Equity Return with Computational Approaches," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(1), pages 483-505, January.
    20. Kurtović, Hrvoje & Markarian, Garen, 2024. "Tail risks and private equity performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    21. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff, 2023. "Small Business Equity Returns: Empirical Evidence from the Business Credit Card Securitization Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 389-425, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Private Equity; Listed Private Equity; Risk-Return Characteristics; Funds of Funds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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