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A New Method to Estimate Risk and Return of Non-Traded Assets from Cash Flows: The Case of Private Equity Funds

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  • Joost Driessen
  • Tse-Chun Lin
  • Ludovic Phalippou

Abstract

We develop a new GMM-style methodology with good small-sample properties to assess the abnormal performance and risk exposure of a non-traded asset from a cross-section of cash flow data. We apply this method to a sample of 958 mature private equity funds spanning 24 years. Our methodology uses actual cash flow data and not intermediary self-reported Net Asset Values. In addition, it does not require a distributional assumption for returns. For venture capital funds, we find a high market beta and significant under-performance. For buyout funds, we find a low beta and no abnormal performance, but the sample is small. Larger funds have higher returns due to higher risk exposures and not higher alphas. We also find that Net Asset Values significantly overstate fund market values for the subset of mature and inactive funds.

Suggested Citation

  • Joost Driessen & Tse-Chun Lin & Ludovic Phalippou, 2008. "A New Method to Estimate Risk and Return of Non-Traded Assets from Cash Flows: The Case of Private Equity Funds," NBER Working Papers 14144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gompers, Paul & Lerner, Josh, 2000. "Money chasing deals? The impact of fund inflows on private equity valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 281-325, February.
    2. Steven N. Kaplan & Antoinette Schoar, 2005. "Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence, and Capital Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1791-1823, August.
    3. Cao, Jerry & Lerner, Josh, 2009. "The performance of reverse leveraged buyouts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 139-157, February.
    4. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "The risk and return of venture capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 3-52, January.
    5. Michael Ewens & Charles M. Jones & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, 2013. "The Price of Diversifiable Risk in Venture Capital and Private Equity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 1854-1889.
    6. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    7. Axelson, Ulf & Strömberg, Per Johan & Weisbach, Michael, 2007. "Why are Buyouts Leveraged? The Financial Structure of Private Equity Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 6133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Andrew Metrick, 2010. "The Economics of Private Equity Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2303-2341, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Buchner, Axel, 2016. "How much can lack of marketability affect private equity fund values?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 35-45.
    2. Andrew Ang & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Mark M. Westerfield, 2014. "Portfolio Choice with Illiquid Assets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(11), pages 2737-2761, November.
    3. repec:spr:schmbr:v:70:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s41464-018-0050-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Rin, Marco Da & Hellmann, Thomas & Puri, Manju, 2013. "A Survey of Venture Capital Research," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 573-648, Elsevier.
    5. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Roman Kräussl & Joshua M. Pollet, 2015. "Risk and Expected Returns of Private Equity Investments: Evidence Based on Market Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(12), pages 3269-3302.
    6. Arthur Korteweg & Stefan Nagel, 2016. "Risk-Adjusting the Returns to Venture Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1437-1470, June.
    7. repec:spr:jbecon:v:88:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11573-017-0874-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Buchner, Axel, 2016. "Dealing with non-normality when estimating abnormal returns and systematic risk of private equity: A closed-form solution," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 60-78.
    9. David T. Robinson & Berk A. Sensoy, 2011. "Cyclicality, Performance Measurement, and Cash Flow Liquidity in Private Equity," NBER Working Papers 17428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ludovic Phalippou, 2009. "Beware of Venturing into Private Equity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 147-166, Winter.
    11. Bienz, Carsten & Thorburn, Karin & Walz, Uwe, 2016. "Coinvestment and risk taking in private equity funds," SAFE Working Paper Series 126, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    12. Bienz, Carsten & Thorburn, Karin S & Walz, Uwe, 2019. "Ownership, wealth, and risk taking: Evidence on private equity fund managers," CEPR Discussion Papers 13944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. repec:eee:jfinec:v:124:y:2017:i:3:p:535-562 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Robinson, David T. & Sensoy, Berk A., 2016. "Cyclicality, performance measurement, and cash flow liquidity in private equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 521-543.
    15. David T. Robinson & Berk A. Sensoy, 2012. "Do Private Equity Managers Earn Their Fees? Compensation, Ownership, and Cash Flow Performance," NBER Working Papers 17942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Dorra Najar, 2017. "Private equity managers’ fees: estimation and sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 239-263, January.
    17. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo & Benjamin Scheick, 2014. "Investor Sentiment, Limits to Arbitrage and Private Market Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 531-577, September.
    18. Kroencke, Tim A. & Muehler, Grit & Sprietsma, Maresa, 2013. "Return and risk of human capital contracts," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-108, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    19. de Jong, F.C.J.M. & Driessen, J.J.A.G., 2015. "Can large long-term investors capture illiquidity premiums," Other publications TiSEM 9c92b978-0099-44d3-9aab-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. repec:eee:jfinec:v:132:y:2019:i:2:p:267-297 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Luiz Egydio Malamud Rossi & Roy Martelanc, 2013. "An analysis of the management practices of Brazilian private equity firms and their impact on company performance," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 151-172, April.
    22. Valkama, Petri & Maula, Markku & Nikoskelainen, Erkki & Wright, Mike, 2013. "Drivers of holding period firm-level returns in private equity-backed buyouts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2378-2391.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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